Elections Amidst a Stagnant Economy

The elections for the tenth Islamic Consultative Assembly are taking place while Iran's economy is experiencing one of the most severe recessions of the past few decades. Surprisingly, what is less heard in the midst of the competition among election candidates is the discussion on how to tackle this recession, which is directly resulting in an increasing number of Iranians sinking into poverty and despair. To better understand the actual economic situation in Iran on the eve of the tenth parliamentary elections, we present the following data: 1) As we reach the last month of the year 1394 in the Persian calendar, the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic continues to refrain from providing the economic growth rate for the first three quarters of the year. Despite this concealment, there is no doubt that Iran's growth rate this year will not exceed the range of zero to one percent at best. There are even many experts who assess the growth rate for the year 1394 as negative. The Research Center of the Parliament predicts this indicator for this year to be between minus two and minus 1.2 percent. 2) In a report prepared at the request of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce by the 'Monetary and Banking Research Institute' of the Central Bank, it is stated that Iran's industrial production fell by twenty-five percent in the autumn of 1394 compared to autumn 1393. 3) Among the most apparent signs of this recession are the increasing closure of industrial units, the constant complaints from business circles about unprecedented stagnation, a severe drop in demand, the accumulation of goods in warehouses, and a significant decrease in the volume of foreign trade. 4) The real victims of this recession are the masses of unemployed individuals who see no bright prospects ahead of them. The Statistical Center of Iran reports the unemployment rate to be below eleven percent, with the number of unemployed around two million seven hundred thousand. If we add to this number those who have exited the labor market due to despair of finding work or have been forced to pursue higher education, the actual number of unemployed in the country will not be far from seven million. The number of unemployed university graduates, especially among women, is a national catastrophe. 5) In addition to all these data, it is essential to emphasize the very significant problems weighing on Iran's economy and society: the dire state of water resources, constraints of the banking system, a multitude of unfinished projects, the bankruptcy of pension funds, institutionalized financial corruption, and the stagnation of the privatization process... and this list can go on. Such key and future-oriented issues, which should logically be at the heart of the candidates' programs for parliamentary representation, are absent in Iran's electoral competitions. The loudest voices heard in the midst of this competition come from those whose only concern is the fear of foreign influence, enemies, and conspiracies. In this situation, identifying the dominant economic orientation of the tenth parliament requires resorting to sorcerers. If we were to judge the results based on how the candidates for the tenth parliamentary elections are selected, it seems that aligning the future legislative body with the executive branch led by Hassan Rouhani, at least in the economic sphere, would require a miracle. The real victims of this recession are the masses of unemployed individuals who see no bright prospects ahead of them. The Statistical Center of Iran reports the unemployment rate to be below eleven percent, with the number of unemployed around two million seven hundred thousand. If we add to this number those who have exited the labor market due to despair of finding work or have been forced to pursue higher education, the actual number of unemployed in the country will not be far from seven million. The government of Hassan Rouhani can be criticized for various reasons. The lack of necessary decisiveness in this government to advance programs and the loss of opportunities to implement correct policies are among these criticisms. Nevertheless, it must be said that the eleventh government has a more or less clear economic program and is equipped with capable managers to implement it. There is no doubt that the main lines of this program must be considered within the special context of the Islamic Republic and its limitations, avoiding 'maximum demands'. Domestically, the reforms sought by Hassan Rouhani's government aim to exit the deadlocks of a state-run and oil-dependent economy. Internationally, 'interaction with the outside', advancing an effective economic diplomacy, and striving to normalize Iran's position in the global community are his main goals. The discourse of the Iranian president in the economic sphere is practically similar to what is heard from senior technocrats in Indonesia, Brazil, or South Africa. The issue is that the discourse of the eleventh government in the economic sphere does not align with the statements and behaviors of very powerful and influential centers within the Islamic Republic's governance. These centers have so far used the parliament to obstruct the decision-making and executive institutions of Rouhani's government. There is a very high likelihood that this mission will also be assigned to the tenth parliament. In the current situation, with the signing of the 'Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action' (JCPOA), the beginning of the process of lifting sanctions, and the opening of doors for cooperation with major industrial powers, a new opportunity has arisen for Iran's economy. However, taking advantage of this opportunity requires a strong political will. In principle, advancing significant economic reforms is not possible without this strong political will. In the 1980s, Turgut Özal, the Prime Minister of Turkey, was able to align his country's economy with the new global conditions with the support of a very large portion of power centers. Deng Xiaoping, the great Chinese reformer, also pulled his country out of the quagmire of Maoism by relying on this unified political will. Other examples can be added to this list, from India to Vietnam. In the history of the Islamic Republic, the parliament has acted and continues to act as a guardian of maintaining the status quo in the economic sphere in many cases. In the process of exacerbating tensions in Iran's international relations and creating a favorable environment for the imposition of devastating sanctions against the country, the Islamic Consultative Assembly was a close ally of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Since the beginning of Hassan Rouhani's presidency until today, the parliament has continued to safeguard the legacy of the previous Islamic president. If the dissonance between Iran's executive and legislative branches continues (and apparently the necessary conditions for this continuation have been provided), where will economic policymaking in Iran lead? The Iranian parliament plays a decisive role in this area. In addition to annual budgets and five-year plans, a very large portion of the reforms needed for Iran and its international relations in the economic sphere requires laws passed by the parliament. In countries with parliamentary systems, the existence of political parties makes the choice easier for voters. If the dissonance between Iran's executive and legislative branches continues (and apparently the necessary conditions for this continuation have been provided), where will economic policymaking in Iran lead? The Iranian parliament plays a decisive role in this area. In addition to annual budgets and five-year plans, a very large portion of the reforms needed for Iran and its international relations in the economic sphere requires laws passed by the parliament. In Iran, there is no news of political parties, and no one knows what programs the candidates have for the multitude of problems facing the country and why they want to go to parliament. Understanding the complexities of the various organizations that form and then collapse in the Islamic Republic is not an easy task. Consider an external observer who wants to know what the various candidates are saying and wanting in this tenth parliamentary election. Here, it is not a matter of whether the legislative and executive bodies must necessarily be aligned and unified in all areas. However, turning the parliament into a constant spokesperson and executor of the opposing centers of the government also leads to paralysis, as we have seen many times in Iran and fear may happen again.