Elections: The Nightmare of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic

Two more elections, and another nightmare for the top figure of the regime. In his latest speech, Ayatollah Khamenei, despite the extensive and multi-layered disqualifications imposed by the Guardian Council and his six appointed clerics, spoke of a 'specific enemy plan' and the 'realization of the enemy's designed conspiracy' for the upcoming elections. While the Guardian Council, relying on reports and security assessments from the IRGC's intelligence organization and its allies in the Basij, has disqualified almost all 'non-affiliated' and independent candidates, and has tried to compile a list of trustworthy candidates for the central power, the worries of the Supreme Leader have not ended. The head of the political system has once again emphasized the keyword 'insight' and expressed concern that a parliament may form that is 'intimidated by the West and America, and seeks the dominance of elitism,' leading the country down a 'path of misery'; or that a clerical assembly may form that is 'attached to the revolution' and 'aware of the enemy's conspiracies and resistant to these conspiracies' but fails to make a revolutionary decision at the critical moment of choosing the third leader of the Islamic Republic. The paradox of elections in a system based on absolute clerical rule has trapped Ayatollah Khamenei in an unavoidable contradiction; on one hand, he is compelled to hold a formal and theatrical election, and on the other hand, the nature of his authoritarianism and the dominant power structure does not allow him to hand over the reins of the elections to the majority's choice. The top figure of the regime speaks of freedom and the integrity of elections in Iran; on the other hand, he tries to impose his will and that of the core power and a minority on the majority's wishes using the tools and resources at his disposal; or to prevent the crystallization and realization of the majority's desires as much as possible. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic has repeatedly emphasized the freedom and integrity of elections in Iran; for example, he says, 'We have had thirty-some elections since the beginning of the revolution; which one has not been free? In which other country are elections freer than what happens in Iran?' Or in another statement, he claims that 'the Assembly of Experts is a manifestation of the people's votes and religious democracy.' However, despite all these claims, and in light of: - Maximum oversight by the six clerics appointed by him in the selection process for the Assembly of Experts (which even led to the controversial and meaningful disqualification of Seyyed Hassan Khomeini); - Widespread disqualifications in the parliamentary elections by the Guardian Council, relying on data from the IRGC's intelligence organization and the Basij; - The biased role of state media, acting as an unrivaled media outlet in the country; - Threats and restrictions imposed by security and military institutions on reformists and non-affiliated individuals; despite all this and many other illegal efforts, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic still fears that his ideal candidates for the two assemblies will fail due to the intelligent choice of the majority. The dream of 'North Korea with a touch of democracy' Mir Hossein Mousavi, a candidate who protested the 2009 presidential election, stated in December 2009, two months before his house arrest, that the core power structure has been designing and attempting to unify the country for '20 years.' He emphasized that 'authoritarians sought to eliminate all national space from critics and protesters; a space similar to North Korea with a little embellishment of democracy.' This important assessment by Mousavi not only describes the projects and aspirations of the totalitarians in Iran but also shows how the issue of 'elections' becomes a critical matter for the central power in the Islamic Republic each time. As Ayatollah Khamenei warns the regime's supporters about the 'evil intentions of the enemy' less than ten days before the two upcoming elections, he anxiously declares: 'They want to interfere in the elections.' The Supreme Leader seeks to establish a parliament that aligns as closely as possible with his wishes and aspirations, and is as free as possible from 'troublesome' individuals; as he is keen on forming an Assembly of Experts that remains merely symbolic and is filled with figures like Yazdi, Jannati, and Mesbah. However, within this aspiration, and at the height of the power derived from oversight and repression and the threats of aligned security-judicial institutions, he suddenly faces another social uprising that is by no means pleasing to him. This trend forces the regime's leadership to either submit to the consequences of the majority's choice or confront it; in either case, it will not be without consequences, especially with the heavy shadow left by the 2009 electoral coup over the elections. Regardless of the outcome of the two upcoming elections and the composition of the Assembly of Experts and the Islamic Council, the palpable reality is that the two upcoming elections have turned into a new nightmare for the top of the political system; a nightmare that stems from the lack of legitimacy and democratic authority, as well as the autocracy and totalitarianism of the regime's leadership. The dream of turning Iran into North Korea with a touch of democracy does not correlate with the social realities and demands of Iranian civil society and the characteristics of the new era. As long as Ayatollah Khamenei and the security-military current surrounding and aligned with him do not abandon their dream, they will inevitably struggle with the 'nightmare of elections.'