Electoral Earthquake in France

The results of the presidential election on April 23 in France, the fifth largest economy in the world, are of great importance for both the future of the country and the future of the European Union. On the day of the voting, Paris became the pulsating heart of the world's media, with hundreds of journalists from dozens of countries focused on an election whose outcome will have a decisive impact on the geopolitical and geoeconomic structure of Europe. The Rise of New Parties What happened on Sunday in the French capital only determined the fate of the first round of the presidential election. Among the eleven candidates in this election, none were able to secure an absolute majority of votes to enter the Élysée Palace. Consequently, a second round is necessary, which will be held on May 7, where only the two candidates with the highest percentages will participate. One of these candidates is Emmanuel Macron, 39 years old, who came first with nearly 24% of the votes, and the second is Marine Le Pen, 48 years old, who secured about 22% of the votes. Let's take a look at these two personalities and their programs: a) Ms. Marine Le Pen is the leader of the National Front party, representing the far-right in France. This party, like all right-wing parties in Europe, advocates for a significant reduction in the entry of new immigrants and strict measures against older immigrants. However, beyond sharing this commonality with other right-wing parties in Europe, the National Front does not differ much in its economic program from the far-left spectrum, advocating for active government intervention in the economy, lowering the retirement age, staunch opposition to the process of globalization, and, most importantly, exiting the European Union and the Eurozone. Ms. Le Pen is close to Vladimir Putin and has received financial support from Russia. It is no coincidence that the National Front calls for the collapse of NATO and strongly opposes any policy regarding the Syrian crisis that relies on the removal of Bashar al-Assad. Before the election, based on numerous polls, it was widely believed that Ms. Le Pen would advance to the second round with the highest percentage of votes among the eleven presidential candidates. The election on Sunday placed her in second place. b) Emmanuel Macron is a newcomer in the political scene of France. Until about three years ago, no one knew him. François Hollande, the socialist president of France, brought Mr. Macron to the Élysée Palace as an economic advisor and shortly thereafter appointed him as Minister of Economy. This is the only government experience of the young man who had not participated in any other elections and did not belong to any political party before the presidential election. In a country that invented the terms 'right' and 'left', Emmanuel Macron openly states that he is neither right-wing nor left-wing, or in other words, he is both left and right. His movement includes participants from all spectrums, from the former Secretary-General of the Communist Party to the most important political figure supporting economic liberalism. A personality with this background resigned from the ministry after two years and founded a movement that can be translated as 'Forward'. In a country that invented the terms 'right' and 'left', Emmanuel Macron openly states that he is neither right-wing nor left-wing, or in other words, he is both left and right. His movement includes participants from all spectrums, from the former Secretary-General of the Communist Party to the most important political figure supporting economic liberalism. The 'Forward' movement can be described as social-liberal, as it defends market mechanisms and liberalization while remaining loyal to leftist theories regarding social justice. Most importantly, Emmanuel Macron is openly pro-European Union and supports strengthening NATO. Before the April 23 election, there was a high probability that in the second round, alongside the far-right Marine Le Pen, an extreme left figure named Jean-Luc Mélenchon would also appear. In fact, polls indicated that Mr. Mélenchon's credibility and his movement, known as 'Unsubmissive France', were rapidly rising, and his advancement to the second round could no longer be considered impossible. Despite belonging to opposing spectrums, both figures are completely aligned in their opposition to Europe and the Euro. In a short period, the presence of Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Mélenchon in the second round became a plausible scenario, raising fears in financial markets that one of these pro-Brexit politicians could take the helm of France. Concurrent with this scenario, the possibility of billions of dollars exiting France increased, and according to some reports, officials in the country even considered implementing mechanisms to prevent capital flight in the event of such an occurrence. Jean-Luc Mélenchon did not make it to the second round, but with about 19% of the votes, he was not far from this goal. The Ambiguities of an Electoral 'Big Bang' Who will enter the Élysée Palace at the end of the second round of the French presidential election on May 7? Answering this question is not difficult. Based on the electoral map of France and the configuration of various political spectrums, it can already be said that Emmanuel Macron, the social-liberal candidate, will win by a large majority against Marine Le Pen, the nationalist candidate. In fact, on Sunday night, immediately after the announcement of the first round results, the majority of traditional right and left candidates in France urged their supporters to vote for Emmanuel Macron in the second round to block the victory of the National Front candidate. In addition to the history of the National Front and its closed, nationalist ideology, Ms. Le Pen's economic program—like Mr. Mélenchon's—drives away any serious political organization. Financial circles in France, including the country's employers' organization, have repeatedly warned that if Ms. Le Pen were to achieve the presidency and take France out of the European Union and abandon the Euro to return to the old French currency (Franc), the country's economy would collapse. In this context, it can be confidently said that a very large portion of French voters will cast their votes in favor of Emmanuel Macron in the May 7 elections. In other words, for the next five years, the Élysée Palace will host the youngest president in the nearly sixty-year history of the Fifth Republic of France. However, this electoral 'Big Bang' carries numerous ambiguities, some of which we will point out: 1) For the first time, the two socialist (left) and Republican (right) parties, which have alternated in governing France for the past six decades, did not reach the second round, and their place was occupied by two 'unconventional' organizations. Following this major defeat, both traditional organizations face the risk of collapse. Will the new organizations be able to fill their place? The first round of the presidential election showed that the political arena in France is highly fragmented, and on several issues, especially regarding the European Union and its future, the French suffer from significant disagreements. 2) Emmanuel Macron is likely to be elected president of France in two weeks. However, the president, in the political system of France, only has the necessary power when he also controls the National Assembly. The parliamentary elections will be held in two months. Will the president-elect's organization ('Forward') be able to secure the necessary majority in the Assembly? Is there a risk that the presidency of the Assembly will fall into the hands of the president's rivals? 3) The 'Forward' organization, which Emmanuel Macron leads, as mentioned, encompasses various spectrums. Will the government emerging from these different tendencies be able to possess the necessary capability and efficiency to manage a highly complex country like France? 4) The first round of the presidential election showed that the political arena in France is highly fragmented, and on several issues, especially regarding the European Union and its future, the French suffer from significant disagreements. Will a young politician like Emmanuel Macron, who has little political experience, be able to overcome this fragmentation and propose a new plan for his country and for Europe in a world facing such overwhelming challenges?