Eliot Berman: The Main Challenge for the Trump Administration in the Middle East is Containing the Houthis

Eliot Berman, Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council, wrote in an article for Newsweek about the challenges facing the next U.S. administration regarding the Middle East. In this article published on Monday, December 3, he believes that the Donald Trump administration, which will begin its work next month, will face issues such as U.S. short-term priorities, assisting Israel in ending the war in Gaza, reviving the Abraham Accords, and reinstating the 'maximum pressure' policy against Iran. However, according to Eliot Berman, the most pressing issue for Mr. Trump is changing the status quo in the Red Sea. The Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council noted that Houthi rebels in Yemen have impacted maritime trade with sporadic attacks in the Red Sea over the past year. A report from the Defense Intelligence Agency states that 65 countries have been affected by these attacks so far. Additionally, more than 24 shipping companies have been forced to change their shipping routes, and transportation through the Red Sea, which constitutes 10 to 15 percent of global trade, has decreased by about 90 percent. Berman pointed out that these attacks have incurred staggering costs for countries worldwide, from billions of dollars in additional costs for international shipping companies leading to increased prices for food and consumer goods, to the loss of approximately $6 billion in revenue for Egypt from ships passing through the Suez Canal. In his article, Eliot Berman mentioned the establishment of a multinational coalition with the participation of 20 members by the United States to help ensure safe passage in the Red Sea, noting that the coalition's operations have had little impact so far. He added that despite the Pentagon spending over a billion dollars to counter Houthi attacks, it has not been able to change the calculations of this group and its main supporter, the Islamic Republic of Iran. He believes that the Biden administration seems to have acquiesced to the current situation in the Red Sea, resisting congressional pressure to re-designate the Houthis as terrorists, and the ongoing fear of escalating regional tensions has prevented the coalition from intensifying its response to Houthi attacks, which has severely disillusioned military officials and foreign observers. The article states that the upcoming Trump administration has the opportunity to change the U.S. approach. Eliot Berman emphasized the need for a clear definition of this Iran-backed group, stating that currently, the correct way to think about the Houthis is not as terrorists but as pirates; a crime that qualifies for judicial review under international law due to its detrimental effects on global trade. He added that such a definition would pave the way for forming a broader international coalition against the Houthis and empower all members of the international community, including regional governments, to act independently against the Houthis. Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran, Berman noted that Washington has largely remained silent despite credible evidence of Iran's military support for the Houthis, adding that if Washington and its allies respond, Houthi attacks could be effectively reduced, which would have consequences not only for this group but also for its supporters in Tehran. He pointed out that the scope of such an approach could include targeting Iranian maritime assets near the Strait of Hormuz and intensifying international efforts to sanction trade with the Islamic Republic, emphasizing that it is clear that the key to the Houthis' cessation of their attacks lies in their supporters in Tehran. The Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council wrote that the upcoming Trump administration must find a way to rebuild America's regional credibility in the Middle East while ensuring trade security there. Eliot Berman believes this is a critical challenge, but focusing on the Houthis is a positive move for Donald Trump, who emphasized the need for new economic policies during his campaign.