End of the Assad Family Rule in Syria; Opponents Capture Damascus

Following the rapid and effortless advance of opposition groups against Bashar al-Assad's government, these groups entered Damascus, the capital of Syria, on Sunday, December 9, 2024, after capturing the cities of Homs, Deir ez-Zor, and Daraa without facing resistance from government forces. With the opposition's entry into Damascus and Bashar al-Assad's flight from Syria, the 53-year rule of the 'Alawite' Assad family in the country came to an end. Reports indicate that Bashar al-Assad, the President of Syria, left the country for an unspecified destination before the opposition entered the capital. Bashar al-Assad, the son of Hafez al-Assad, who ascended to the presidency in 2000 after his father's death, is considered the 19th president of the country, simultaneously holding the position of commander-in-chief of the Syrian armed forces and secretary-general of the Ba'ath Party of Syria. Initially recognized as a reformer who could end the years of repression under his father, Hafez al-Assad, this hopeful image quickly faded as his government continuously arrested and imprisoned political activists, intellectuals, and members of the 'Damascus Spring' movement. During the 14-year Syrian civil war, he was also accused of committing war crimes and brutally suppressing the Syrian people, resulting in over 500,000 deaths and half of the country's population becoming displaced. Nevertheless, Assad managed to secure his political survival with military support from the Iranian government and Russia. After facing widespread protests during the Arab Spring in 2011 demanding his ouster, he suppressed the opposition uprisings and, with the help of Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, regained control of large areas of Syria that he had lost during the civil war. In multiple elections held in government-controlled areas during the war, Assad was always unopposed and received the majority of votes, elections that Western countries described as unfree and unfair, questioning their results. From November 27, 2024, just a few days after the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hezbollah in the Lebanon conflict, a large-scale attack by Syrian government opposition rebels took control of cities such as Aleppo and Hama for the first time since 2011, severely threatening his position. The opposition, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and commanded by Ahmad al-Shar'a, known as Jolani, managed to capture 80% of Syrian territory, including important cities such as Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Daraa, within less than ten days and ultimately captured Damascus with minimal resistance, violence, and bloodshed. The relationship between the Assad family and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been one of the most important and strategic regional alliances in the Middle East, rooted in Hafez al-Assad's presidency. During the Iran-Iraq War, Syria, under Hafez al-Assad's leadership, was one of the few Arab countries that supported Iran and opposed Saddam Hussein. This alliance laid the foundations for a deep and long-term relationship between the two countries, which continued during Bashar al-Assad's era. After the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the Islamic Republic became one of the main supporters of Bashar al-Assad's regime, sending military advisors, financial and military support, and organizing militia forces such as Hezbollah Lebanon and the Fatemiyoun Brigade to help stabilize Assad's power. These supports were part of a broader Iranian strategy to maintain regional influence and strengthen the 'Resistance Axis' against Israel and the United States. One key aspect of this relationship was Syria's role as a conduit for transferring Iranian weapons to Hezbollah Lebanon. Iran transferred weapons and military equipment to Hezbollah through Syrian territory, which led Israel to repeatedly target bases related to these transfers in Syria. Maintaining the Assad regime was vital for Iran as it meant preserving this critical corridor and continuing its influence in Lebanon. However, the relationship between Bashar al-Assad and Tehran has not always been without tension. Reports indicate that Assad has occasionally expressed dissatisfaction with excessive dependence on Iran and has sought to balance his relations with Russia and other powers. Despite this, Iran's unwavering support, especially during the peak years of the civil war, was a key factor in the survival of Assad's regime. Now, with the potential fall of the Assad regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran faces a serious challenge in its regional policies. Losing one of its main allies in the region could lead to a reduction of Iran's influence in the Middle East and weaken its access to Lebanon and Hezbollah. These changes could force Iran to reconsider its regional strategies and seek to rebuild its influence in the Middle East.