Endless Anxieties of Trump and Clinton; In the Fateful Week

The American party primaries to find a suitable candidate for the presidency have reached one of their most sensitive weeks. On Tuesday of next week, elections will be held in important states such as Florida, Missouri, Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio, and the size and population of some of these states have made their role in the final outcome more significant than others. As both parties approach this decisive day, two names are repeatedly mentioned as the frontrunners in polls: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Despite all the obstacles in their way, both candidates are ahead of their rivals in vote counts to date and are leading in polls for the continuation of their campaigns. However, until Tuesday arrives and the residents of these five states cast their votes, predicting the final outcome will remain impossible, and there is a possibility that by the end of the day, both Clinton and Trump could be the saddest candidates in this competition! In the Republican primary races, in some states, the party's rules state that whoever receives the most votes will receive all the party delegates from that state at the national convention. For example, Florida, due to its size and population, has 99 delegates at the Republican National Convention, and whoever wins the election in this state will take all these 99 votes. Given the close competition among candidates this time, these 99 delegates could play a decisive role in the final competition. To win overall in the 50 states, a candidate needs 1,237 delegates. In Florida, like many other states in the U.S., Donald Trump is leading in polls. So why should he be worried? The main concern for Trump's campaign in the Florida battle is Marco Rubio; the senator from this state who can count on the votes of a large group of Cuban immigrants due to his Cuban roots. Since Republican Party leaders and figures like Mitt Romney began their all-out media campaign against Trump, the status of the competition between Trump and Rubio in Florida polls has gradually changed, and in the aggregate of these polls, Rubio has improved his standing. Perhaps this has led Rubio, despite the importance of a potential defeat in Florida, to refuse to withdraw and to campaign vigorously in this state. Trump's troubles on Tuesday do not end in Florida. On the same day, elections will also be held in Ohio using the 'winner-take-all' method, where all 66 delegates from this state will go to the election winner. Trump's main rival in this state is John Kasich, the governor of Ohio! In recent days, Trump's status in Ohio polls has worsened compared to Kasich, and at least in one poll conducted by Fox News, Kasich has pulled ahead of Trump in this state. All of this coincides with the endless advertisements from wealthy Republicans that are broadcast day and night in the media of these states! Just as losing in these two states could cast doubt on Trump's ultimate victory, winning in these two states alongside states like North Carolina, Illinois, and Missouri, which together have 187 delegates, would effectively put an end to his opponents' hopes of defeating him. Currently, the main hope for stopping Trump is that he fails to reach the desired 1,237 delegates by the end of the primaries. In that case, during the first round of voting at the Republican National Convention (scheduled for July 18), no one will be chosen as the Republican Party nominee. In such a scenario, voting among the party delegates will be repeated, and according to local state regulations, some delegates will no longer be bound to their state's popular vote and can vote for whoever they like. Some delegates will also be freed from their commitments in the third round. Trump's opponents hope that in such a scenario, once delegates are released from their commitment to the popular vote, they will vote for someone other than Trump, preventing him from achieving the Republican nomination in a dignified and lawful manner. This scenario will only succeed if Trump does not come in first place, especially in 'winner-take-all' states. This issue is so important to Trump's opponents that, in an unprecedented event, Rubio's campaign asked his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich instead of him so that he could win and Trump would leave Ohio empty-handed. Rubio likely hoped for a similar action against Kasich in Florida to boost his chances of winning there. However, John Kasich took a completely different route and responded, 'We will win in Ohio without his help, just as he will lose in Florida without our help!' On the opposite front, the situation is entirely different, and in the head-to-head competition between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, fundamentally different issues are at play. In this battle, rather than focusing on whether one person will enter or not, the differences in policies between the two and their various plans for America's future are constantly discussed, and observers believe that these plans also influence their votes. After Clinton's surprising defeat in Michigan, some observers attributed her high support for free trade agreements as a main reason for Sanders' strong showing. The story is that Hillary Clinton supported a famous free trade agreement in North America signed by Bill Clinton in 1993. Many in Michigan believe that this agreement led to the migration of many industries from this state and increased unemployment there. Perhaps this has led Clinton, in the aftermath of Michigan, to emphasize the importance of job creation more than ever and even to speak of the need for increased regulations on Wall Street financial institutions; slogans that are also central to Bernie Sanders' campaign and seem to have influenced his recent successes. In any case, even if Clinton wins all five states next Tuesday, Bernie Sanders will not withdraw from the race. He has announced that he will stay in the competition until the last day, which is not necessarily bad news for Clinton. If she establishes herself as the definitive winner, she will benefit from a low-risk competition with Sanders to keep her name in the news and to speak about her plans. Additionally, she will attack the opposing party amidst this intra-party competition, which she is already doing by occasionally mocking Donald Trump. It remains to be seen that since Trump considers himself the ultimate winner, he will not miss any opportunity to attack Clinton!