Erdogan's New Political Gamble with the Syrian Turkmen Card

With the start of Turkey's armed forces operations against ISIS and the PKK, various speculations about the reasons behind this and Turkey's sudden change in approach have been the headlines of recent news and the focus of political analysts' opinions. What should be noted in this recent event is that the political-military shift of the Turkish government is a process of developments following the parliamentary elections in Turkey in June this year. The results obtained and the new arrangement of political parties in the parliament raised concerns for the ruling government of Turkey and the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The presence of the newly formed Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) with 13% of the total votes and the scattering of other votes among the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), alongside a noticeable and shocking decrease in the votes for the AKP and its failure to secure parliamentary seats, intensified Erdogan's worries. On the other hand, the HDP's unwillingness to form a coalition government and accusations against Erdogan of political greed and power led to the beginning of a challenge between this party and Erdogan. Meanwhile, the multiple conditions set by opposition party leaders blocked the way for forming a coalition government. Although many consultations have been ongoing between the AKP and the CHP and are considered the last chance for forming a coalition government, it seems that the existing disagreements between the two parties, including constitutional changes, adherence to civil liberties, judicial independence, and most importantly, changes in the current foreign policy, will lead to the failure of future negotiations. Despite Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay's statement that six out of ten points of disagreement between the two parties have been resolved, and even Haluk Koç from the CHP acknowledged that next Monday will be a crucial meeting between the two parties to determine the outcome, Turkey's Minister of Culture and Tourism, Ömer Çelik, reported the existence of major unresolved issues. Meanwhile, the CHP has requested an extraordinary session of the Turkish parliament on Wednesday, July 29, aiming to examine the reasons for the recent rise in terrorism and the government's sudden reaction to it. Therefore, it seems that the Turkish government, aware of the impossibility of forming a coalition government, is preparing the ground for early elections, a purpose that can be easily understood from Erdogan's statements. It is evident that to succeed in this path, there is a need to increase community votes and gain parliamentary majority. For this purpose, it appears that the Turkish government has seized the opportunity presented by the Suruç incident and, using the attack on ISIS positions as a pretext, has exerted pressure primarily on the PKK rebels both inside and outside Turkey. Bombing PKK rebel positions and arresting supporters of this group alongside Al-Qaeda and ISIS, along with the practical reactions of the PKK, such as bombings and creating insecurity in society, have essentially completed the puzzle of the AKP's legitimacy and, at the forefront, Erdogan's stance on the futility of continuing peace negotiations between the Kurds and the government and distancing from cooperation with ISIS. This is why, on Tuesday, Erdogan announced after the request from Devlet Bahçeli, the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, that negotiations between the Kurds and the government have reached a deadlock, and Abdulhamid Gul, the Deputy Chairman of the AKP, also announced the filing of lawsuits against the officials of the HDP. Meanwhile, according to a report published in the newspaper Yeni Şafak, specific movements are taking shape in Turkey. This publication reported on negotiations between Syrian Turkmen leaders and the officials of Turkey's intelligence coordination organization known as MIT regarding the handover of areas cleared from ISIS in northern Syria to equipped Turkmen brigades. Apparently, Syrian Turkmen have called for solidarity among all Turkmen to save their homeland and, with their initial action of capturing the castle of Latakia and dominating this city, will drive out all ISIS forces and those loyal to Bashar al-Assad. They also plan to establish their centers in Idlib and Aleppo and act against the ethnic cleansing of the Kurds. Meanwhile, Tarek Solo Cevizci, the deputy of the Syrian Turkmen Assembly, expressed ignorance of such movements in an interview with BBC Turkish. It seems that the Turkish government has taken a risky political gamble to achieve absolute power in early elections and, while leaking contradictory, sensitive, and controversial news, is unafraid to express provocative claims. In this context, to stir nationalist sentiments and attract public opinion for gaining scattered votes from the previous elections, it is not particularly concerned about the continuation of the crisis within the country. Therefore, Turkey's current political behavior can be considered challenging and hasty. For instance, Cem Özdemir, a representative of Turks residing in Germany from the Green Party in that country's parliament, has severely criticized Erdogan's aggressive policies and warned Turkish political officials that the current situation is leading Turkey towards a position resembling a smaller Pakistan. If no measures are taken, Turkey will be trapped on the brink of civil war. He confirmed Turkey's collaboration with ISIS and believes that Turkey was once on the verge of joining Europe but is now trying to deceive European countries under the pretext of fighting ISIS. In such circumstances, the hasty behaviors of the Turkish government in achieving political power are not free from various reactions and criticisms from political leaders around the world and even regional countries, including Al-Abadi, Masoud Barzani, Angela Merkel, and others.