Erdogan's Unilateral Governance

Last week, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Turkey held an extraordinary congress with a singular aim: to elect Binali Yildirim, a close friend of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as the party's secretary-general and consequently as Prime Minister. Ahmet Davutoglu, the previous secretary-general and Prime Minister, resigned in early May apparently due to criticism of the shift in Turkey's governance system to a presidential system. Abdullah Gul, the former president, and Bulent Arinc, the former parliament speaker, both considered 'old friends' of Erdogan, were similarly sidelined. They were part of a more moderate faction of the party that, despite criticism of the current situation, never resorted to rebellion. As a result, currently, only one person makes all the important decisions. Mr. Yildirim, the new Prime Minister, stated in his speech at the party congress: 'The leader of the Justice and Development Party is our esteemed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and he will continue to be.' According to Mr. Yildirim, his most important task now is to stabilize the presidential governance system through constitutional changes and to have it approved in a referendum. However, the issue is not the system itself but rather the transformation of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, officially and legally, into an individual who will hold all governmental power. After decades of ineffective coalition governments in Turkey, a single party has governed the country for about 13 years with consecutive electoral victories and an absolute majority. Although this party has been more effective than previous governments, it has gradually turned into Erdogan's unilateral rule. Throughout this time, he has led the country and intends to remain in power, and no one knows for how long. The sidelining of Ahmet Davutoglu, a close friend and 'brother' of Erdogan in early May, is a clear sign of Erdogan's swift move towards consolidating the presidential system. However, for this change to become official, he must amend the constitution by obtaining two-thirds of the votes in a referendum. The Justice and Development Party currently holds about 50 percent or slightly more of the public votes, and this figure has been gradually decreasing. Consecutive electoral victories with significant vote shares and holding the Prime Minister's office for two terms may be a source of pride, but it cannot justify the elevation of personal status and the grasping of absolute power in Turkey. In the current Turkish constitution, the President has an almost ceremonial role, tasked with maintaining unity among various parties and components of the government and society. Turkish public opinion has never shown much interest in changing the constitution, especially knowing that the person who will hold all power will be Recep Tayyip Erdogan; yet Erdogan, with his characteristics, cannot wait. Ministers who have left the government, journalists, merchants, and investors who once had good relations with Erdogan all say that in various government institutions in Turkey, from parliament to military and security affairs, and even in the judiciary, no important decision is made without Erdogan's approval, even during the years 2002 to 2014 when he was Prime Minister. With a change made in the Turkish constitution in 2007, the President must now be elected directly by the people rather than by parliament, and any individual can only serve two consecutive terms as President. In 2012, with the passage of a new law, the President's powers were expanded, and contrary to his previous 'neutral' position in earlier laws, the President now chairs cabinet meetings and can influence government decisions even in the presence of the Prime Minister, who is the head of the executive branch. Erdogan was elected President in 2014. In the extensive government apparatus, in important economic sectors, and in the media, Erdogan is referred to as 'our esteemed President,' and he addresses his subordinates as 'my ministers,' 'my commanders,' and 'my citizens.' Since Erdogan was elected President in 2014, contrary to traditions and the constitution, he has made decisions regarding all areas of governance, from the economy and foreign policy to the cultural and social life of Turkey, and his subordinates have executed them. He has even remained in the leadership of the party and participates in all electoral and promotional campaigns of the party. With a simple order, he can change ambassadors or cancel major construction projects, directly command military operations against Kurdish rebels, or instruct television network managers to dismiss their presenters; and most importantly, he can change the agenda of parliamentary sessions. As we witnessed in the case of Davutoglu's resignation, Erdogan can dismiss the head of the executive branch without informing parliament and appoint his preferred candidate as Prime Minister. In this situation, the role of the Prime Minister is merely to execute the President's orders. On the surface, Turkey had a Prime Minister named Ahmet Davutoglu, but in practice, contrary to what occurred until 2014, all speeches and important decisions regarding foreign policy and national security, economic and domestic affairs were made not by the head of the executive branch but by the President. Tarhan Erdem, a prominent polling expert in Turkey, states: 'The era of unilateral governance in Turkey has begun long ago. Now is the time to form new political parties. If the method of unilateral governance continues and no new parties enter the scene, people will no longer have hope for political changes and will seek other ways.' For this reason, Erdogan aspires to formalize the current situation, which is effectively a presidential system, through constitutional change. Mr. Yildirim announced last week that he has been tasked with legalizing this system as quickly as possible. There is no doubt that such a change will come soon, but even without formalizing it, Erdogan currently holds all affairs of Turkey.