Escalating Dispute Between Turkey and the U.S. Over Missile Contracts

Reuters reports that the ongoing disputes between Ankara and Washington have increased the likelihood of U.S. sanctions against Turkey. The media outlet states that Turkey has little time to avoid confrontation with the U.S. over its purchase of advanced missile systems from Russia and its rejection of Washington's alternative proposal, which has heightened the possibility of sanctions. Meanwhile, due to the latest diplomatic crisis in relations between the two countries, the value of the lira has fallen to its lowest point in mid-summer. Disagreements between the two countries regarding their policies in Syria, sanctions against Iran, and the detention of U.S. consulate staff continue, and the missile system issue could deepen these disputes. Despite the central bank maintaining interest rates above inflation, the lira's value decreased by 1.5% this week due to concerns about Turkey's relations with the U.S. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan did not respond to the implicit deadline set by the U.S. for purchasing Patriot missiles worth $3.5 billion, and according to U.S. officials, this deadline will certainly expire at the end of March. Erdoğan has repeatedly emphasized that he will not cancel the contract for the purchase of the S-400 missile system from Russia, which is set to be deployed in Turkey in October. Washington has stated that Turkey cannot have both missile systems. If Turkey finalizes the missile deal with Russia, it may lose the opportunity to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. and could be sanctioned under the so-called 'Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.' The Turkish president has rejected the cancellation of the contract with Russia, and currently, Russia is constructing a nuclear power plant and building a gas export pipeline to Europe through Turkey. A few days ago, Erdoğan responded to a question about the missile contract with Russia, saying: 'It is confirmed and will never be canceled. Such a thing is unethical. No one should ask us to swallow what we have spat out.' He added that Turkey may even purchase the next generation of this missile system (S-500) from Russia. Reuters adds that Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said on Friday that U.S. officials have stated that if Turkey buys Russian missiles, the approval of the sale of F-35 fighter jets in the U.S. Congress will be impossible, but the Turkish government is trying to resolve these obstacles. Turkey claims it has paid part of the cost of this deal to Russia, and experts believe that for Erdoğan, who is currently engaged in the local election campaign on March 31, canceling the deal with Russia will be very difficult and costly. According to experts, Turkey does not want to jeopardize its alignment with Moscow regarding the situation in Syria, and given that the S-400 missile system is set to be delivered to Turkey in the coming months, Ankara has little time to change its mind. As a result, the possibility of diplomatic maneuvering is very limited, and the likelihood of U.S. sanctions against Turkey increases. The U.S. International Trade Administration announced a few days ago that it intends to end the preferential trade system with Turkey, stating that this decision is not political, despite Turkey's economic advancements in recent years. However, this agency put Turkey's conditions for benefiting from preferential trade on its agenda last year after imposing tariffs on U.S. goods by Turkey in retaliation for Washington's decision to impose tariffs on Turkish aluminum. Defense experts say that if the U.S. sanctions Turkey under the 'Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act,' even the current capabilities of the Turkish Air Force, which relies primarily on American F-16 fighter jets, will be affected. These jets are Turkey's main tools in attacks against Kurdish militant positions. Although missile systems are currently the focal point of tension in Ankara-Washington relations, the two countries also have differing views on Venezuela, with Washington supporting opposition leader Juan Guaidó and Ankara backing the government of Nicolás Maduro. In this context, Donald Trump ends preferential trade with Turkey and India, reiterates warnings to Turkey regarding the purchase of air defense systems from Russia, and Erdoğan states there is no reason to withdraw from the purchase of the S-400 system from Russia.