Escalation of Threatening Rhetoric from the Islamic Republic Amidst Middle East Crisis

As clashes intensify between Israel and the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups in the region, Kamal Kharrazi, advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, threatened that the government would change its "nuclear doctrine" and increase the range of its ballistic missiles if faced with a "threat to its existence." Kharrazi claimed in an interview with the Al-Mayadeen news network that the Islamic Republic possesses the technical capabilities necessary to produce nuclear weapons, and that the fatwa from Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, is the only reason the Iranian government refrains from producing nuclear weapons. He added that, nonetheless, the Islamic Republic has the option to change its "nuclear doctrine" if there is a "threat to its existence." The Islamic Republic has always claimed that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency has previously stated in his reports that uranium enrichment to levels close to weapon-grade has not occurred except in countries with nuclear weapons. Kharrazi also mentioned the possibility of increasing the range of the Islamic Republic's ballistic missiles. These threatening remarks from Khamenei's advisor come at a time when analysts say the recent efforts by the Islamic Republic to establish deterrence through direct attacks on Israel have largely failed, making the Iranian government more vulnerable to its main enemy. Reports indicate that recent retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on Islamic Republic positions in Iran have destroyed all of the country's S-300 missile defense systems. This action by Israel was a response to missile attacks by the Islamic Republic on Israel earlier this month. The Iranian government claims it is still assessing the damage caused by the Israeli attacks. Nicholas Harris from the New Line Institute in Washington told Voice of America that the airstrikes demonstrated that Israel has "qualitative military superiority" in the war with Iran, which affects Iran's deterrence strategy. He added that by targeting advanced S-300 air defense systems, Israel successfully bypassed Iran's air defenses and attacked centers for producing intercontinental ballistic missile components, as well as ballistic missile fuel, which are crucial parts of the Islamic Republic's deterrence strategy. According to Harris, Israel intended to convey the message to the Islamic Republic that Iranians are significantly behind Israelis in terms of technological warfare. Nicole Garjouski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's nuclear program, writes in the online publication "Dewan" that "Iran's efforts to deter Israel through direct attacks have had the opposite effect, revealing gaps in its own defense system." This expert believes that the recent Israeli attacks likely place the Islamic Republic in an even "more precarious" position than before. Thomas Newdick, writing in the publication "Warfare Zone," agrees that the destruction of the Islamic Republic's S-300 systems paves the way for larger-scale direct attacks by Israel in the future. He adds that this situation acts as both a potential opportunity for Israel and a deterrent factor against the Islamic Republic's response. Newdick emphasizes that Israel certainly has various options in mind to take necessary actions in the event of a possible response from the Islamic Republic. Analysts believe that another factor in the Islamic Republic's deterrence strategy has been the development of relations with Syria and regional militia groups, including in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has assassinated Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, including Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah. Analysts state that although there are many uncertainties regarding the capabilities of these militia groups, the coalition known as the "Resistance Axis" has been "severely weakened" by Israeli attacks.