Everything About Rebel Groups in Syria: Winners and Losers

The fire of regional tensions has finally caught up with Bashar al-Assad. While the Syrian government had tried to keep itself away from the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon over the past year, various rebel groups opposing Bashar al-Assad's government quickly managed to reach Damascus after a ceasefire was established between Hezbollah and Israel. But what is the background of these groups that have sparked a new uprising? What is their ideology, and which foreign actors support them? Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham was initially known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which was a branch of al-Qaeda in Syria. Jabhat al-Nusra was established in 2012 as a branch of al-Qaeda in Syria and played a significant role during the country's civil war. However, after internal disagreements, the group split, and in 2016 a new group called Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham emerged. This new group severed its ties with al-Qaeda and emphasized that it no longer had any affiliation with that organization. The United States officially designated this group as a terrorist organization in 2018, and most countries around the world also consider Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham to be terrorist. The approaches of Tahrir al-Sham remain Salafi, and ideological beliefs among its leaders, including its main leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who was previously known as the commander of Jabhat al-Nusra, are evident. Tahrir al-Sham is also different from ISIS, which is present in eastern Syria, and the two have even clashed in the past. Since Tahrir al-Sham has controlled Idlib for some time, its governance style can be likened more to the Taliban than to ISIS. Tahrir al-Sham is the main leader of recent attacks in Syria and has brought together other groups opposing Bashar al-Assad's government to jointly control more areas of Syrian territory. These include groups such as Nour al-Din al-Zenki, Jaysh al-Islam, Ahrar al-Sham, and Faylaq al-Sham. There is no official connection between Turkey and this rebel group, but regional observers believe that Tahrir al-Sham is acting in line with the goals of the Erdogan government, which has previously used them to strike Kurdish forces, including a small group near Aleppo. The Free Syrian Army, unlike ideological Islamist groups, consists of former military commanders of the Syrian army who initially had a national approach and later leaned towards the Muslim Brotherhood. This group has been supported by Western countries since the beginning of the civil war in Syria and is composed of defected soldiers from Bashar al-Assad's army. Initially active in various regions of Syria, this group is now limited to areas under Turkish control in the north of the country. However, the Free Syrian Army has also participated in this offensive and is present in the advance of the rebels. Why now? The advance of these militant groups comes immediately after the ceasefire between Hezbollah Lebanon and Israel was finalized. In recent years, Hezbollah forces and groups under the supervision of the Islamic Republic, such as the Fatemiyoun Brigade, have played a significant role in preventing the advance of these groups, but in recent months, a significant portion of the focus of the Islamic Republic's proxy forces has shifted towards the front in Lebanon. On the other hand, the dysfunction of the operations room known as the 'Resistance Axis' has made it more difficult for these groups to coordinate to prevent the advance of the opposition groups. Additionally, in recent weeks, the Israeli army has repeatedly bombed the Lebanon-Syria border to cut off communication between Hezbollah and groups affiliated with the Islamic Republic in Syria, aiming to sever the communication lines between different parts of the so-called 'Resistance Axis' in the region. Hezbollah is both a militia group and a political party. The United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization, but the European Union has listed its military wing as terrorist while not labeling its political party as such. The political party of Hezbollah also has representatives in the Lebanese parliament. However, in recent months, movements from these groups for operations and advances have been observed, but the main movement occurred after the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. A commander of the IRGC was killed in the attacks by Bashar al-Assad's opponents in Syria. Why did Syria not intervene? Over the past year, many observers, especially figures close to the Islamic Republic, have criticized what they called Bashar al-Assad's 'passive approach'; however, military experts argue that Bashar al-Assad's army has already accepted the presence of foreign forces from four countries—Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the United States—on its soil, with parts of it under the control of Islamist rebel groups and also Kurds. As a result, it seems that Bashar al-Assad's government has neither the intention nor the capacity to support or not support Iran and groups known as the 'Resistance Axis.' What is Russia's approach? In 2019, Turkey launched an operation called 'Peace Spring' in Aleppo, aiming to push Kurdish groups away from the border area with Turkey and create a safe zone in Syrian territory where, according to Ankara, it could shelter Syrians. That attack, which faced widespread global criticism, ultimately led to an agreement in October of that year, mediated by Russia, to end this war, creating a safe zone at the Syrian-Turkish border and deploying Russian forces in the outskirts of Aleppo. Consequently, the recent attack by militants has occurred in an area where Russian forces are also present; however, Moscow has not taken any specific action regarding these movements in recent months. This policy may reflect Moscow's involvement in more significant conflicts in Ukraine or perhaps behind-the-scenes agreements between Putin and Erdogan. Turkey's interests Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Turkey has sought to increase its regional influence by expanding its presence and affiliated forces, while weakening Kurdish groups both in Syrian territory and within its own borders. The Erdogan government has openly called for Bashar al-Assad's removal from power throughout the years of the Syrian civil war and has supported various militant groups in the country. This did not happen ultimately due to the presence of Iranian military forces and the support of Russian soldiers. However, Turkey has attempted to consolidate its influence in Syria over the years and has conducted several operations directly in Syrian territory. The weakening of groups known as the 'Resistance Axis' in the region, including Iranian forces in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, has led some political observers to argue that an opportunity has arisen for Turkey to advance its goals in the region, especially in Syria. The situation for Iran and further weakening of the 'Resistance Axis' One of the centers where Iranian military forces were actively present in Syria was the city of Aleppo, the second-largest city in Syria, which holds strategic value for the Islamic Republic to complete the route for transferring weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, in recent weeks, the focus of the Islamic Republic's proxy groups has been primarily on Hezbollah's conflicts with Israel, resulting in little opportunity to confront the threats posed by rebel groups in Syria. In this context, on December 8, media affiliated with the IRGC confirmed that Kiomars Haj Hashemi, described as a commander and advisory force from Iran in Syria, was killed following attacks in the outskirts of Aleppo, which the IRGC referred to as 'attacks by Takfiri and Zionist terrorists.' Consequently, it can be expected that with the blows that the Islamic Republic's affiliated militia groups have faced over the past year, the situation for the Iranian government in Syria will worsen. Israel's policy Even before the October 7 attack and Israel's engagement with Iranian-affiliated proxy groups in the region, Israel had repeatedly targeted objectives generally related to Iranian military shipments or warehouses in Syria. These actions aimed to cut off the supply chain of weapons to militants in Hezbollah and Palestinian territories. After October 7, however, Israel expanded its actions and explicitly addressed Bashar al-Assad in recent months, warning him not to allow the transfer of weapons by Iranian forces. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, also recently threatened Assad more harshly after the ceasefire with Hezbollah, stating that he was 'playing with fire.' As a result, some observers in the region argue that these attacks and the advance of rebel forces in Syrian territory, immediately following the ceasefire with Israel—even if it was without coordination with Netanyahu's cabinet—could serve Israel's interests in the region.