Examining Three Possible Scenarios of War Between Israel and the Islamic Republic in Conversation with Hossein Aghaei

Twenty-three days after the second missile strike by the Islamic Republic on Israel, and while officials from that country have stated they will respond with a 'deadly, precise, and surprising' attack, an international relations researcher, in a detailed interview with Voice of America, assessed the current international security environment as being in the 'most complex and dangerous situation since the Cold War.' Hossein Aghaei, an international relations and strategic affairs researcher, outlined three possible scenarios for Israel's retaliation against the Islamic Republic's missile attacks during a detailed conversation with the Persian section of Voice of America. He stated that strategically, it is in Israel's interest for this attack to occur before the U.S. presidential elections on November 5. The researcher and Middle East analyst mentioned that while other scenarios might be considered regarding war between Israel and the Islamic Republic, the 'three main scenarios' include 'Armageddon, Octopus, and Mabab.' He explained that the 'Armageddon' scenario hypothesizes a 'full-scale and widespread war of very large, dangerous, and unpredictable dimensions in the region,' during which 'Israel will likely strike not only nuclear and oil facilities but even the head of the snake in Tehran, conducting significant assassinations that will result in the Islamic Republic playing a very high-risk game and moving towards building a nuclear bomb, with the U.S. alongside Israel attacking the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities, and the war spreading to other parts of the world, intensifying the Russia-Ukraine war and even the China-Taiwan conflict.' Aghaei considered the second hypothesis, the 'Octopus scenario,' to be the most likely case, describing it as 'a relatively large war, but below the threshold of full-scale regional and international war.' He stated that this war would be 'ongoing' and that Israeli movements would depend on events occurring within Iran in response to the military reaction from that country, including 'certainly targeted assassinations of military officials and sabotage operations at nuclear and military sites and the IRGC,' indicating that 'not only will there be isolated military actions by Israel, but we will witness a chain of reactions that Israel will activate, resulting in a chain of chaos that could initiate the process of the Islamic Republic's downfall.' The researcher identified the third hypothesis as the 'Mabab scenario,' which stems from 'Moshe Dayan's thinking' and refers to 'a limited, short-term war with small dimensions' that may occur after the U.S. presidential elections. Based on this hypothesis, Israel will respond to the limited missile strikes of the Islamic Republic with a 'targeted military response' or 'limited engagement in line with a chain reaction,' and will not target nuclear, oil, and strategic sites, in which case the Iranian government will likely not respond at all. After presenting these three hypotheses, Hossein Aghaei recalled the statements of Yoav Gallant, Israel's Minister of Defense, who said the response to Tehran would be 'deadly, very precise, and surprising,' and expressed his belief that when Israeli officials make such statements, they will act accordingly, making the second hypothesis, the 'Octopus scenario,' more likely. Aghaei also stated that 'the international security environment is in the most complex and dangerous situation since the Cold War, and the Middle East is in a condition that seems to be 'really on a powder keg,' a situation where 'neither the U.S., nor Russia, nor China can prevent conflicts from arising, and the potential for escalating tensions exists.' He described 'the battle between Israel and the Islamic Republic' as 'the last act of a fateful struggle to determine the deterrence equation in the Middle East,' adding that 'Israel wants to not only secure its deterrence in the long term after the October 7 attack but also stabilize it.' According to this researcher, 'Israel will definitely respond to the Islamic Republic's missile strikes,' as the chain reaction following the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas has led Jerusalem and Tehran to 'fight face to face, and the continuation of the status quo is not possible for either side in the medium and long term.' He also warned about the danger of Iran becoming nuclear, stating that 'if the Islamic Republic feels threatened, it may bring its nuclear breakout time to zero and pursue the construction of a nuclear bomb, with the nuclear threat from the Islamic Republic hanging over Israel like the sword of Damocles.' Aghaei noted that 'the trauma of the Jews after October 7 has been revived, and they consider it their greatest trauma after the Holocaust,' asserting that Israel 'is seeking to guarantee deterrence,' which will lead it to 'want to initiate the process of the Islamic Republic's downfall once and for all or severely weaken it.' Regarding the potential leak of information related to Israel's response preparations to the Islamic Republic, Aghaei mentioned that the leaked information in a Telegram channel linked to the Islamic Republic 'is more related to Israel's preparations for an attack' and 'not a detailed attack plan'; he stated that 'even this is not good for Israel and certainly not for the Biden administration's image.' He pointed to accusations regarding the current U.S. administration's 'appeasement policy' towards the Islamic Republic, emphasizing that 'it seems Israel will carry out a military response before the U.S. elections, although there is a slight possibility that it could be after the elections to prepare the ground for it; however, I still think that if Israel reacts before the elections, it will be strategically and militarily beneficial for it, as the window of opportunity is wider for it during this time.' Aghaei emphasized the existence of a 'deterrence crisis' and 'the collapse of deterrence' in the Middle East, stating that the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas, the Iranian-backed militant group, on Israel showed that the current conditions are such that even 'Israel is losing its deterrence,' and on the other hand, 'the U.S. has not taken the necessary actions in response to the Houthi attacks, and Israel blames the U.S. for not wanting to establish the necessary deterrence against the Islamic Republic and its proxy forces.' He stressed that 'Israel wants to create its desired security ecosystem in the Middle East, even through limited war,' and in this context, 'Israeli officials are discussing new terms like a new order, decisive victory,' and 'issues regarding deterrence.' Aghaei stated, 'I believe the Israelis are fighting with a mindset of total war for decisive victory to create a new order,' and regarding how this new order will be established in the region, he said, 'This new security order will be established while the Islamic Republic is severely weakened, which requires ongoing military action or that pressure is applied to the Islamic Republic to lead it towards a popular uprising for its downfall.' According to Hossein Aghaei, 'From a completely realistic perspective through Israel's lens on events, this country can only be confident about its survival in the medium and long term if the Islamic Republic is pushed towards a process of downfall,' and Israel may facilitate this process 'through a significant and important military response that carries out a series of military and intelligence actions within Iran.' Aghaei emphasized that 'it is not that Israel will overthrow the Islamic Republic for the Iranian people; rather, it needs to do this to guarantee its own survival.' The strategic affairs researcher pointed out the Islamic Republic's miscalculations regarding the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, stating, 'It seems the strategic logic behind the October 7 attack was that Israel is the losing horse in the Middle East, and the Islamic Republic's expectation and miscalculation was that it thought that with this action, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and countries that joined the Abraham Accords would exit these agreements; however, we now see that these countries are seeking to normalize relations to create a new order in the region.' He noted that 'important Arab countries in the Gulf region and even Turkey are somewhat dissatisfied with the Islamic Republic's regional interventions and are proceeding cautiously with the Iranian government.' He referred to events such as Saudi Arabia's experience with the Aramco attack and the Houthi attacks on the UAE and 'the damages these countries have actually suffered from the Islamic Republic,' stating, 'Even Putin's Russia is fully supportive of the expansion of the Abraham Accords, and if the Islamic Republic moves towards downfall, the regional order will be guaranteed with the Cyrus Accord.' Aghaei emphasized that 'one of the main reasons we are currently witnessing these upheavals in the Middle East' and 'in the course of the Ukraine and Russia war, is the deterrence crisis,' and it seems that 'the U.S. does not want or cannot stabilize its deterrence in the region.' He stated, 'If the flames of war between Israel and the Islamic Republic intensify, we may witness spillover effects or leaks of conflict from a specific domain to other domains.' Hossein Aghaei explained: 'For example, if the flames of war in the Middle East intensify, it may lead to escalated conflict between Ukraine and Russia, or China and Taiwan, and at any moment we may witness a large and comprehensive war in the international arena, and this is where the role of the U.S. and the role of the U.S. President becomes very critical.' This international relations and strategic affairs researcher predicted that 'if Kamala Harris becomes President of the United States, these policies will continue, but if Donald Trump becomes President, he may pose very serious threats to the Islamic Republic, and the deterrent role of the United States may be more pronounced with the possible arrival of Trump.'