Exclusive; Senior Middle East Analyst: Israel is Not Behind the Kerman Explosions

Michael Pregent, a senior Middle East analyst at the Hudson Institute, dismissed the possibility of Israel's involvement in the deadly explosions in Kerman during the fourth anniversary ceremony of Qassem Soleimani's assassination, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In an interview with Voice of America, Pregent suggested that the explosions on Wednesday, January 3, in Kerman could have been carried out by terrorist groups or opponents of the Iranian government, or even coordinated by the Islamic Republic itself, although he noted that the regime in Tehran would attempt to link the event to the U.S. and Israel. Pregent also pointed out the Iranian government's inability to fill the void left by Qassem Soleimani as a key figure in the Islamic Republic's regional coordination, stating, "We have not seen such capability from Ismail Qaani." Following Soleimani's assassination on January 3, 2020, Ismail Qaani was appointed as the commander of the Quds Force. In another part of his remarks, the senior Middle East analyst mentioned that Iran's distance from the Israel-Hamas war has created a rift among the militias and networks supported by the Islamic Republic. In the detailed interview with Voice of America, Pregent discussed the implications of Soleimani's death on Iran's influence and coordination with proxy groups beyond its borders, emphasizing that it had a serious impact. He noted that while Qassem Soleimani was fluent in Arabic, Ismail Qaani is not as proficient. Soleimani had connections with Imad Mughniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon and managed all Iraqi militias. His loss on the battlefield provided an opportunity for the U.S. and its allies to pursue the militias and create divisions among them. Although this was not done, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Ismail Qaani tried to keep them all together. However, the more Iran stays out of the Israel-Hamas war, the more Hezbollah and other groups will look at each other and try to assess the commitment of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Pregent mentioned that Qais Khazali, the leader of Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, has stated that there is an alliance between Iran and the U.S. because they only target militias in Iraq and do not act against Iran. When such thinking spreads among the militias and networks supported by the Islamic Republic, it presents a good opportunity to exploit. However, he expressed doubt that the Biden administration would take advantage of such an opportunity and division. Regarding the events during the commemoration of Soleimani's assassination, Pregent believes Tehran is well aware that such actions are not related to Israel, even though they make such claims. He stated that Israel does not target civilians in this manner. He also noted that while searching for Hamas terrorists in Gaza or senior IRGC figures in Syria or Hamas leaders in Lebanon, collateral damage may occur. However, he emphasized that the recent attack resulted in no casualties, only a Hamas operative was killed. He speculated that the attack could have been carried out by a local terrorist group, ISIS, or someone wanting to escalate violence, or even that the regime allowed such an attack to gain support from the Iranian people by raising its hostility against Israel. He concluded that while it is unclear who was behind the attack, it is not related to Israel, but rather a local group or possibly the separatist Mojahedin-e Khalq. Pregent also discussed the potential impact of this attack on current tensions in the region between the Iranian government and the U.S. and Israel, suggesting that Iran would want to link it to conflicts with Israel and the U.S. He noted that a day earlier in Lebanon, there was an attack that killed two Hamas leaders and several of their operatives. He believes Tehran will try to connect these events to garner sympathy or support, but the regime is attempting to link everything to Israel and the U.S., while the greatest threat to the regime in Tehran comes from the Iranian people who are tired of this regime, separatist groups, and extremist Islamic groups that carry out terrorist attacks against civilians, which seems to be the case here. The two explosions, occurring 15 minutes apart, aimed to kill as many civilians as possible, a tactic not used by Israel but rather by groups like Al-Qaeda or ISIS.