Exclusive; Slavine: The Kerman Explosions Indicate a Rift in the Intelligence Apparatus of the Islamic Republic

Barbara Slavin, a Middle East expert and researcher at the Stimson Center, attributed the Kerman explosions during the fourth anniversary of Qassem Soleimani's death to a lack of preparedness and a kind of rift within the intelligence agencies of the Islamic Republic. In an interview with VOA, she noted the recent killings of Reza Mousavi, a senior member of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria, and Saleh al-Arouri, a Hamas commander close to the Iranian government, as signs of abnormal conditions in the region. In detail, Slavin stated that the Iranian government had promised retaliation and had taken some responses, but it seems these did not prevent such attacks on Iran. She emphasized that there are people in Iran who had no interest in Qassem Soleimani and others who did. The explosions indicate a type of rift in the Islamic Republic's intelligence apparatus that was unprepared for such an attack during the anniversary of Soleimani's death. It is unclear who is responsible, whether from within Iran or the Mojahedin-e Khalq, but this occurs at a time when tensions between Iranian-backed groups and Israel and the United States have escalated. We witnessed the killing of an Iranian commander by Israel in Syria on Christmas and the killing of a Hamas commander close to Iranian officials. This signifies a departure from normal conditions in attacks against Iranian or Iranian-supported elements that we have not seen before. I am concerned that this may force Iran to show a broader reaction than what it demonstrated after Soleimani's death. Regarding the impact of Soleimani's death on Iran's strategy in the region and its proxy groups, it seems there has been no effect. In fact, if you look at the regional conditions, what is referred to as the Resistance Axis has become stronger after Soleimani's death. The October 7 or 15 Hamas attack on Israel was something no one expected, Hezbollah remains a powerful axis in Lebanon, and we have Iranian-backed militias in Iraq active against American forces and others. The Houthis have also joined this caravan. It can be said that the idea of battle axes coming together, attributed to the achievements of Soleimani's successor, seems to have been successful from Iran's perspective. However, what happens from here on can only be speculated. Concerning Iran's promised retaliation for Soleimani's death, it is not precisely clear how Iran will interact with its proxy groups. Currently, Iran is a country facing serious divisions. The Gaza war has created a rift among the Iranian people, many of whom do not support the Resistance Axis and want the government to allocate existing resources domestically rather than support various Arab groups in the region. We do not know who is responsible for the bombings on the anniversary of Soleimani's death and must await results. However, I think it is fair to say that such an attack makes the Iranian regime very nervous and leads to increased paranoia regarding internal opponents. I still do not know if they will respond to Israel or not. We at the Stimson Center researched this matter and found that the October 7 attack was not retaliation for Soleimani's killing but rather a reaction to Israeli occupation in Gaza and the West Bank. However, I believe this will be a serious topic of discussion for Iranian officials on how to respond to such a bloody attack on their soil on the fourth anniversary of their main commander's death. Tough discussions are ahead in Tehran. Regarding today's events in Iran, what is your advice to the U.S. government in this situation? The Biden administration has worked hard to contain the Gaza war and prevent its expansion, and if the Israelis are responsible for this attack and several previous ones, it complicates America's position. There is concern that this could escalate into a regional conflict. Until a few days ago, I would not have said such a thing, but it is like poking a bear in its cave. However, such actions are also very ambitious and, as some say, very dangerous.