Extension of Nuclear Negotiations and Iran's Domestic Politics

The seven-month extension of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the six major world powers (the U.S., France, the U.K., China, Russia, and Germany) is likely to complicate the negotiation process and negatively impact the Iranian government's domestic policies. The main players in these negotiations are Iran and the United States. The key question is how the extension of negotiations will affect domestic politics in Iran and Washington, and how political exchanges and controversies in both countries will influence the future of nuclear negotiations. Following the extension, Hassan Rouhani announced on Iranian state television that he would assure the Iranian people that the centrifuge cycle would never stop. Like Barack Obama, Rouhani also tried to convey to the Iranian people that Iran has been victorious in the negotiations so far. However, the state of domestic politics and the economy in Iran is much more complex and unstable than this. The hardline factions, media, and newspapers in Iran, along with the Republican Party in the United States, play a decisive role in this matter. Economically, the lifting of $700 million in sanctions will somewhat aid Iran's economic growth, providing revenue equivalent to the sale of 350,000 barrels of oil per day. In the coming months, Tehran will strive to lift more sanctions and conclude economic contracts, including gas exports and other goods to several European and Southeast Asian countries such as France, Germany, Russia, Japan, and China. Exports from some European countries to Iran have already seen an increase due to the hope stemming from the nuclear negotiations. According to the state newspaper Tehran Times, Germany is currently Iran's main global partner. The newspaper states, 'The value of goods exported from this European country (Germany) to Iran reached 207 million euros in June 2014, an 88% increase compared to exports in June 2013.' However, Tehran must work towards the complete removal of sanctions to fully exit the economic crisis and strengthen its economy. The main political player in Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, will likely continue his dual policy. Economic sanctions and Tehran's political isolation continue to threaten the power of the ruling class in Iran. As a result, Ayatollah Khamenei seems to have no choice but to continue his dual policy. On one hand, the Iranian leader will continue to support Rouhani, Zarif, and their technocratic team. This support allows Rouhani to pursue negotiations during the extended timeframe until a final agreement is reached. However, Khamenei's and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) main goal will not change. The Iranian leader continues to seek a nuclear agreement in which economic sanctions will be lifted before ensuring the implementation of the standards desired by the nuclear agency and the international community. Furthermore, Ayatollah Khamenei and senior IRGC officials who control Iran's nuclear program have maintained their position regarding the number of centrifuges permitted for Iran and the status of the heavy water reactor in Arak. Another aspect of Ayatollah Khamenei's policy is his support for hardliners and conservatives who form the core of his social base. In this context, Khamenei occasionally delivers harsh speeches, accusing the West and deeming the nuclear negotiations fruitless. For example, this week, while allowing Rouhani to continue negotiations, Ayatollah Khamenei stated that 'the West' and 'colonial countries' cannot bring the Islamic Republic of Iran to its knees. Khamenei attempts to maintain support from both fronts that stabilize his power through this dual policy. Thus, while he hopes that nuclear negotiations will immediately lead to the lifting of sanctions, he has absolved himself of any responsibility should the negotiations prove fruitless. The hardline faction is trying to demonstrate the incompetence and emptiness of Rouhani's promises. This faction may even attempt to eliminate some politicians from Rouhani's team, such as Zarif, from the scene. Additionally, the rise of the Republican faction in the U.S. Senate increases the likelihood of a bill being proposed for further sanctions against Iran in January. Although Obama has the power to veto such a bill due to its adverse impact on the negotiation process, the internal politics that could affect the performance of both Rouhani's and Obama's administrations complicate the negotiation process further. In other words, the extension of negotiations, by giving more opportunities to hardline factions in Iran and the U.S., complicates the discussions.