Factors Preventing the Delivery of S-300 to Iran

Iranian news sources, citing Russian sources, have once again raised the issue of delivering the S-300 missile defense system to Iran in the final days of the deadline set for finalizing the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 group. They have stated that the delivery is contingent upon Iran withdrawing its legal complaint against Russia. However, the delivery of the S-300 faces serious additional obstacles beyond the legal dispute between the parties. The first deterrent is the current state of nuclear negotiations and how the UN Security Council sanctions against Iran will be lifted. If the nuclear negotiations do not reach a conclusion by the end of this Christian month, there is a possibility of raising the security aspect of Iran's violations again and imposing harsher sanctions based on this clause (the violation mentioned in paragraph seven of the UN Charter referenced in Resolution 1929). Following the adoption of Resolution 1929 on June 9, 2010, then-President Dmitry Medvedev announced the cancellation of the S-300 sale to Iran through a decree. Shortly after Medvedev's decree to cancel the S-300 sale to Iran, Nikolai Makarov, then Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, explained the reasons for not selling the S-300 to Iran, citing the UN Security Council sanctions and declaring Iran an unstable country. Three months before the official announcement of this decision by Kremlin leaders, then-Prime Minister Putin, during a meeting with then-President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, stated that Russia would refrain from delivering the S-300 to Iran. At that time, Russia was finalizing the purchase of two advanced missile and helicopter carriers from France, and apparently one of the conditions for the delivery of the French helicopter carriers to Russia was the non-delivery of the S-300 system to Iran! Will the resolutions remain? One of the most ambiguous situations regarding the nuclear negotiations is how the UN Security Council sanctions against Iran will be lifted. Undoubtedly, it is not possible to lift a series of UN Security Council resolutions against Iran merely by adopting a general resolution, although this promise has apparently been made to the Islamic Republic. Such an action would set a new precedent in international law and would call into question the importance of the Security Council as a legislative authority in global relations. Furthermore, the Security Council has officially stated that it will only consider lifting sanctions against Iran after the 30-day deadline of the US Congress and awareness of the relevant resolution in that country's legislative body. According to Resolution 1929, states are prohibited from selling or transferring eight categories of effective military weapons, including tanks, armored vehicles, heavy artillery, fighter jets, military helicopters, ships, missiles, and any missile systems, as well as providing technical assistance related to the mentioned weapons to Iran. Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and part of the P5+1 group. Stopping the production of S-300 The S-300 is a long-range surface-to-air missile system capable of being used at different altitudes, originally designed to intercept aircraft and cruise missiles, and later enhanced to intercept ballistic missiles as well. Under a contract signed in 2007, Russia committed to deliver at least five S-300 air defense systems to Iran in exchange for $800 million. As a result of increased external pressures against Russia, particularly from the US, Israel, and the European community, especially after reaching an agreement with the US regarding the cancellation of the missile defense system installation in the Czech Republic and the installation of new radars in Poland, Russia set aside the delivery of the S-300 to Iran. Russia has stopped producing the S-300 missile system for domestic use for the past 20 years and has only accepted orders for this system for export. Igor Ashurbeyli, head of the Russian Missile Defense and Space Advisory Council, confirmed in a 2011 interview with RIA Novosti that his country had stopped producing the S-300 and had not yet received new orders for the sale of the S-400, which is the successor to the S-300. Russia does not provide its advanced missile defense systems to foreign customers for fear of becoming vulnerable to air attacks. The missile defense system that Russia has in mind for export instead of the S-300 is called the Antey-2500, and this system has so far been provided to countries like Egypt and Venezuela. Iran's legal dispute Following the official announcement of the cancellation of the S-300 sale, the Iranian Ministry of Defense filed a lawsuit in the Geneva court, claiming $4 billion against Russia. The initial value of the canceled S-300 sale contract to Iran was $800 million, most of which had already been paid to Russia. Given the halt in the production of the S-300 system and the official cancellation of its sale, it is in Iran's interest to first receive financial compensation during the court proceedings or as a result of an out-of-court settlement and then negotiate for the purchase of a different missile system with new legal assurances. Regarding the system known as Antey-2500, one of Iran's concerns that has led to its reluctance to purchase it is the access of Israel and the US to technology to neutralize the Antey-2500 system and bypass it using a similar system available to Egypt. Although Russia has announced that it will produce a similar version of the French Mistral ships domestically, following its claim of building the S-300 domestically after the cancellation of the sale, it remains hopeful of receiving those ships from France. If the request for non-delivery of the Russian missile system to Iran is repeated, this time as one of the conditions for the delivery of the French ships to Russia, the issue of delivering any advanced missile system to the Islamic Republic will once again be in the situation of 2010, with the cancellation of the sale of Russian missiles to Iran conditional on the cancellation of the installation of the US missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland. In addition to the expected pressures from traditional sources against Russia, Saudi Arabia has now joined the group of pressures against Iran. In a meeting last week, Mohammed bin Salman, the son of the king and Saudi crown prince, raised the issue of selling up to 16 Russian-made nuclear reactors to Saudi Arabia. Despite competition in oil markets, Moscow warmly welcomed the Saudi crown prince. With its vast financial resources and promises to open its domestic market to Russian institutions, Saudi Arabia is capable of influencing Iran-Russia relations. Considering the array of deterrents mentioned, the resumption of the sale of the S-300 system or a replacement missile system by Russia to Iran is currently, at best, in the situation of 2007 and not better than that; as a result, under the influence of predictable changes related to each of the existing deterrents, it could lead to the fate of 2010.