Farshad Momeni: No Significant Change in the Economy

Farshad Momeni, an economist and faculty member at Allameh Tabatabai University, poses the question in an analytical note for Khabar Online, "Has the economic situation really improved?" This institutional economist points out that many businesses shut down in 2014, and according to him, the trend of "recession and destruction of the Iranian economy" has continued. Momeni considers the reduction in inflation rates achieved despite inflationary policies as a reflection of the depth of the recession prevailing in the Iranian economy. This professor of economics identifies "effective demand crisis at the household level" and "effective developmental demand crisis from the government" as two fundamental factors of recession in the Iranian economy, believing that the combination of these two has confronted the economy with recession, and due to this recession and low supply and demand, the inflation rate decreased in 2014. While Momeni attributes a significant portion of the problems in the Iranian economy to issues left over from the previous government, he believes that "the new government has also not been able to perform adequately in addressing the crises inherited from the past." This faculty member of Allameh Tabatabai University believes that there is not enough serious will in the government to tackle the problems of the Iranian economy and predicts based on the documents in the 2015 budget that there will be no "significant changes in the economy" in 2015, and that we will not witness a "remarkable transformation" in the Iranian economy. Mohammad Setarehfar, an economist and head of the Management and Planning Organization during Mohammad Khatami's administration, emphasized in a note published in the annual report of Tejarat-e-Farda magazine that the Iranian economy in 2015 is the "heir to hard and concerning legacies." He considers these legacies to be remnants of ineffective and inefficient economic and social structures and functions. Setarehfar also believes that the eleventh government, in addition to these worrying legacies, also has opportunity-creating and transformative legacies in human, social, physical, geographical, geopolitical resources, and many construction capacities. According to this economics professor, in 2015, the government is expected to show more determination, mobility, sustainability, and speed in resolving issues than before. Setarehfar emphasizes that 2015 is a year of serious hopes and fears, but he also believes that the fate of the struggle between these hopes and fears will be determined by the government's initial actions and then the people's support for it. The former head of the Management and Planning Organization recommends that Iranians consider 2015 as a year of personal and social regeneration.