Fifth Anniversary; Latest Accounts of the Casualties from November 98

Many cities in Iran witnessed unprecedented protests against the Islamic Republic in late November 2019; protests that erupted following the sudden announcement of a threefold increase in gasoline prices, leading to a severe crackdown that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of protesters. During that time, as news of the massacre of protesters spread, the government cut off internet access, concealing the true extent of human rights violations being committed by security forces. These widespread popular protests, which occurred in a significant number of cities across Iran, initially reacted to the sudden rise in gasoline prices but quickly shifted focus to target the very foundation of the Islamic Republic. Now, five years have passed since these protests, yet many unanswered questions remain regarding the suppression of the protests. This report examines some of these questions and the documented information published in this regard, addressing the role and impact of the November 98 protests on subsequent protests and the changing methods of the government in suppressing dissent. The number of casualties; statistics that were never published The figures presented regarding the casualties of the November 98 protests cover a wide range; from 200 to over 4,200. Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, the then-Minister of Interior, stated in June 2020 that between 200 and 225 people were killed in these protests and acknowledged that these individuals died from gunfire from organizational weapons. Meanwhile, Amnesty International had reported a week prior that the details of the casualties numbered at least 304 and stated that the actual number of deaths from November 98 was likely much higher. Human Rights Watch again called for a UN investigation into the November 98 crackdowns. In the same vein, Reuters reported on December 22 of that year that 1,500 people were killed in the November 98 protests, citing "three sources close to the circle around" the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic and a fourth official who stated that Ali Khamenei had told senior officials to "do whatever is necessary to stop" the protests. The figures reported by this news agency are accepted by a large segment of the Iranian public, including many families of the victims of these protests, but statistics from the Iranian Civil Registration Organization provided evidence that the number of casualties from these protests could be much higher. According to this data, in November 2019, the recorded number of deaths was 38,517. This figure was 34,316 in the previous month, October, and 33,615 in the following month, December. This data shows that in November, the recorded death toll was 4,201 higher than in October and 4,902 higher than in December of that year. Some research indicates that a pathogenic factor such as COVID-19 or seasonal influenza, natural causes, or even statistical fluctuations due to unregistered deaths cannot justify this high death toll in November 98. Therefore, with the elimination of possible additional death options in the fall of 98, many causes remain to explain this high death toll, including the massacre during the November protests. However, due to the lack of sufficient statistical data on the details of the number of deaths in various provinces, it is not possible to make precise statistical comparisons to assess the number of victims, and it cannot be definitively stated that the increase in registered deaths in November 98 is directly related to the protests of that month. The death toll of November 98; the mystery of several thousand who are extra What did the families of the victims see with their own eyes? A part of Gabriel Garcia Marquez's novel "One Hundred Years of Solitude" deals with the observations of one of its characters, Jose Arcadio Segundo, regarding the massacre of three thousand protesting banana workers. This character is among the protesters when the sound of gunfire from soldiers erupts, and he miraculously escapes this massacre. The soldiers transport the bodies of the deceased by train from the city and erase the traces of the massacre. Jose Arcadio, as one of the few survivors of the incident, finds that whenever he speaks of this massacre, no one believes him, not even his family members. The situation of many protesters and families of the victims of the November 98 protests is not unlike Marquez's narrative. Some of them provide numerous observations about the high number of casualties; instances that have not been recorded in any published document. Soran Mansournia, a member of the Association of Families of Justice Seekers of November, and the brother of Borhan Mansournia, who was shot by security forces during the protests on November 27, 2019, and later died, refers to his and his brother's observations in this regard. Mr. Mansournia tells Radio Farda that his brother was in the operating room of Taleghani Hospital in Kermanshah for six hours, during which the medical staff were transferring bodies from the operating room to the hospital's morgue, and he and his friends, fearing that one of these bodies might be Borhan's and that security forces would secretly transfer it elsewhere, saw all the corpses. According to this member of the Association of Families of Justice Seekers of November, during this time, eight bodies were transferred to the morgue, and he witnessed all these details. However, in the reports related to these protests, besides the name of Borhan Mansournia, no other protester who lost their life in this hospital has been recorded. Borhan Mansournia, in the 34 hours he survived after being injured, recounts many events of the suppression of the protests in Kermanshah to his family, including stating that at the Dolatabad Boulevard in Kermanshah, six other protesters were also shot and killed at the same time. According to Soran Mansournia, no name other than his brother's appears among the casualties of the November 98 protests at Dolatabad Boulevard in Kermanshah. Some other families of justice seekers recount similar observations. Mahbubeh Ramazani, the mother of Pejman Gholipour, a young man who was killed on November 26 in Marlik, Karaj, tells Radio Farda that around 8 PM on November 26, when she entered the resuscitation room of the hospital where her son's body was located, she saw a large number of bodies wrapped in covers. Ms. Ramazani says, "While in the hospital corridor, every five or ten minutes, a body was being transferred to the morgue; bodies belonging to the victims of the protests." She also adds, "The number of casualties was so high that the morgue shelves were full, and many bodies were laid on the ground." After this incident, the family of this young man went to the governor's office on Malard Road to file a complaint. Mahbubeh Ramazani tells Radio Farda, "The man in charge there told Pejman's father that since the night of November 26 until now, I have 850 cases under my hand; you won't get anywhere with this." The 850 people mentioned in this quote were killed only on Malard Road in Karaj, exceeding the total number of protesters killed in many accounts. The increase in threats and security pressures on the families of the victims of the November 98 protests Relatives of Reza Moazemi Goudarzi, who was killed on November 26, 98, in Shahriar, Tehran Province, also told Radio Farda that they briefly managed to see the morgue of the municipal hospital in Andisheh city and saw "many bodies piled on top of each other" and it was "terrifying for them that this many people had been killed in one night." Mehdi Daemi was one of the young men who lost his life on November 25, his birthday, due to direct gunfire from security forces. A source close to his family describes a similar account regarding the forensic building in Tehran in Khavaran. This source, describing the number of bodies as "countless," states: "From early morning until 7 PM, bodies were being delivered nonstop at Khavaran." These eyewitness accounts indicate that the statistics of many of the casualties from the November 98 protests were never recorded under this title, and the actual figures are much higher than what has been reported to date. Which cities were involved? The responsible institutions in the Islamic Republic have never responded to requests for the formation of a fact-finding committee regarding the November 98 protests, while some of these requests were even made by certain government officials and members of parliament. Accordingly, information regarding the extent, involved cities, arrested individuals, and similar matters remains shrouded in ambiguity. Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, the Minister of Interior in Rouhani's government, stated in December 2019 in an interview with Iranian television that the protests were mostly in "marginalized" areas, five provinces of the country were in a "special" state, and 100 points in Tehran were also affected by protests. According to Rahmani Fazli, protests occurred in 27 provinces, with Khuzestan, Isfahan, Fars, and Tehran being among the "special" provinces in terms of the intensity of protests. Meanwhile, Ali Fadavi, the deputy commander of the IRGC, stated at the same time that the recent protests in Iran occurred in 28 provinces. A few days later, Ali Darabi, the deputy for provincial affairs of IRIB, wrote in a note published by Fars News Agency that "more than 200 large and small cities in the country" were involved in the protests. Details of 8,600 arrests during the November protests No accurate statistics regarding the number of arrests during these protests have ever been published, but Radio Farda's summary of scattered comments from official sources and reports from human rights organizations indicates that at least 8,600 people were arrested in 22 provinces of Iran during these protests. Does November continue? Many supporters of the Iranian government consider the case of the November 98 protests to be closed, but the families seeking justice for these protests and some opponents of the Islamic Republic say, "November continues." In this regard, Soran Mansournia, a member of the Association of Families of Justice Seekers of November, states that the November 98 protests had a direct impact on subsequent protests, especially the "Women, Life, Freedom" protests. Mr. Mansournia tells Radio Farda, "Families who lost loved ones in the 'Women, Life, Freedom' protests had seen the resilience of the November families and learned from their resistance." He further refers to two waves of killings in the "Women, Life, Freedom" protests, stating, "The first peak at the beginning of the protests in September 2022 and the second peak at the end of November of that year; this peak was due to calls that emerged from all corners of Iran based on the collective memory of the Iranian people from the November 98 protests, which reignited the flames of protests in November 2022." Meanwhile, the November protests themselves were influenced by protests that had occurred prior to them. The results of a survey in Iran conducted in Bahman 1396, considering the nationwide protests of Dey 1396, indicated that 41% of those dissatisfied with the current situation of the country were willing to participate in protest gatherings. In this survey, conducted by the Iranian Student Polling Agency (ISPA), the dissatisfied population was estimated to be nearly 75%. A model for suppressing nationwide protests While it is said that Iranian protesters learned from the November 98 protests, comparing the methods of suppressing these protests and subsequent protests shows that these protests also provided a model for the Islamic Republic for suppression. Azizzadin Poyesh, a researcher in technology and human rights from the "Filterban" group, states: "Although the November 98 protests were a successful experience for the Iranian government in cutting off global internet access, they had widespread negative consequences in terms of economic, political, and social aspects. In this regard, Mr. Poyesh tells Radio Farda that the government, relying on infrastructure monopoly and control over internet access points, was prepared to completely cut off international internet access in 'emergency situations' during November 98, and even one of the domestic news agencies described this situation as a 'relatively successful test of the national internet.' For this reason, after experiencing these protests, the government attempted to design its suppression methods, especially regarding disruptions to international internet access, in a way that would cause less harm to the ruling system of the country. Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, the then-Minister of Communications, later announced that he was preparing a bill to clarify and refine the policies for cutting off the internet in the country. This bill, according to Azizzadin Poyesh, 'was never sent to the parliament' but 'was archived as one of the highly confidential documents in the Security Council'; a bill that, according to information from internal sources of Filterban, has designed the decision-making and implementation process of internet blackouts. According to Mr. Poyesh, after that, 'the government attempted to create new methods for controlling the internet during protests by supporting domestic platforms, restricting foreign platforms, and creating local and temporary disruptions.' He states that 'disruptions in the WhatsApp messenger after the protests against the downing of the Ukrainian plane (Flight 752), the cutting off of mobile phone connections in the gathering place of people in Behbahan in Tir 99, and local outages in protests in Saravan (Esfand 99) and Yasuj (Khordad 1400) are examples of internet disruptions.' According to this researcher, this type of disruption after the November 98 protests became 'newer' and 'more targeted.'