Final Approval of Nuclear Agreement in the U.S. and Its Impact on Iran's Economy

The Iranian economy is likely to be most affected by the consequences of the nuclear agreement between Iran and six world powers. In this context, the approval of this agreement by American lawmakers, or at least its non-rejection by the U.S. President's veto power, creates conditions for the lifting or suspension of some U.S. sanctions against Iran in the areas of nuclear activities, oil sales, and banking transactions. Shahin Fatemi, an economics professor in Paris, discusses how to assess the status of sanctions in the U.S. Congress, stating, "We must look at it in two ways. One is the sanctions that the U.S. has, some of which started since the revolution. Those that Congress has approved have not changed at all and will not change. As long as Congress is in Republican hands, those congressional approvals remain in force. Where Obama has the authority, there may be some facilities established." Meanwhile, many economic experts consider the approval of the Vienna agreement in the U.S. Congress to be favorable for the Iranian economy, at least in the short term. Mehrdad Emadi, an economic expert in London, states, "We will see its effects very quickly in the short term. We see contracts like Boeing's contract with Iran or oil investment contracts that American oil companies are very eager to engage in the Caspian Sea and Azadegan areas waiting for Congress's approval. This competition in economic contracts with Iran will not only be positive for American companies but, more importantly, it will give Iran the opportunity to secure better contracts in tenders from Europe, Japan, and Korea. Because reputable American companies have entered this game. In fact, this will be a win-win game, but the bigger win will be for Iran." In this context, Shahin Fatemi believes that the acceleration of the release of blocked funds and investment in Iran's energy sector could be part of the consequences of the approval of the nuclear agreement in the U.S. Congress; "Two important events in the future of the Iranian economy should be anticipated. One is when Iran's funds are released. This will create significant changes if done correctly. The second issue is investment, especially in the oil sector. With the elimination of the approvals, it is likely that large oil companies will invest in Iran's oil industries within the next six months to a year. Generally, for Iran's economy to connect to the world economy, it will take a little longer because Iran must become a member of the World Trade Organization, and until today, it is the U.S. that has prevented this." According to U.S. law, the President can delay the implementation of any law from Congress for six months. However, sanctions approved by Congress and enacted into law require repeal again by Congress. According to Goudarz Ebtedaari, a political economy analyst and economic advisor in the United Arab Emirates, the part of the U.S. Congress sanctions against Iran will not seriously hinder Iran's economic relations with the world. "I do not think the sanctions will have a major impact, even if they continue. Moreover, many of those sanctions were administrative sanctions imposed by former Presidents Carter and even during Mr. Clinton's term against Iran. A large part of these sanctions applies to very specific cases and targets very special issues against Iran, which, given the positive atmosphere that currently exists at least for the next year and a half in the United States, and it is still unclear who the next president will be, these initial openings in the U.S. diplomatic apparatus towards Iran will be effective, even in the future and during the terms of future presidents." Goudarz Ebtedaari states, "I do not think the sanctions will have a major impact, even if they continue. Moreover, many of those sanctions were administrative sanctions imposed by former Presidents Carter and even during Mr. Clinton's term against Iran. A large part of these sanctions applies to very specific cases and targets very special issues against Iran, which, given the positive atmosphere that currently exists at least for the next year and a half in the United States, and it is still unclear who the next president will be, these initial openings in the U.S. diplomatic apparatus towards Iran will be effective, even in the future and during the terms of future presidents." This economic advisor in the Abu Dhabi government believes that the approval of the Vienna nuclear agreement in the U.S. Congress will initially lead to the expansion of Iran's economic relations with the European Union and eventually with the U.S. He states, "In fact, I do not think a major change in the economic relationship between Iran and the United States will happen in the short term. My belief is that immediately after the announcement of the lifting of sanctions, Iran's economic relations with the West, especially the European Union, will expand. In today's world reality, there is no strict boundary in terms of economy. That is, in any case, some sectors of industries and international conglomerates that have their centers in the United States will participate in these trade exchanges with Iran. If these sanctions are completely lifted, certainly Iran's economic relations with the United States will also be affected and will open up." However, it has been stated that some of the U.S. sanctions in the areas of terrorism and human rights, as well as unilateral sanctions that were imposed before the issue of Iran's nuclear file were raised, will not be lifted or suspended. Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, repeatedly emphasized the immediate lifting of all sanctions simultaneously with the signing of the nuclear agreement during the months when the nuclear talks were ongoing in Lausanne, Switzerland, and Vienna, Austria. The leader of the Islamic Republic previously stated, "The Americans repeat that we will sign a contract with Iran and then see if they comply with the contract, and then we will lift the sanctions. This is a wrong and unacceptable statement. The lifting of sanctions must occur without any delay upon reaching an agreement. That is, lifting sanctions is part of the agreement." Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran, also stated at that time that Iran's negotiating party in the nuclear talks is not the U.S. Congress but the 5+1 group. Many economic experts believe that among all the sanctions imposed against Iran's nuclear file, none have pressured Iran as much as the financial and banking sanctions and the sanctions on oil sales to Iran. Therefore, the lifting or suspension of these sanctions will breathe new life into Iran's economy. Kamran Dadkhah, an economics professor in the U.S., states, "Undoubtedly, the best and highest benefit for Iran is in the banking and money transfer sector. Because during the time these financial and banking sanctions were imposed on Iran, on one hand, some countries blocked Iran's funds. India and China are examples of this. The second cost has been the cost of money transfer. Because Iran has been excluded from membership in SWIFT, many times international money payments have faced problems, and for example, Dubai and other countries and many traders from these countries have taken advantage of this situation. The third issue is corruption. Because there has been no possibility of money transfer, some people entered and said, 'You give me your money, and I will put it in this bank, etc.' This has been discussed in the Iranian press as well. Therefore, the removal of these restrictions on money transfer and banking issues will be very beneficial for Iran and will also reduce costs.