Final Confirmation of Nuclear Agreement in the U.S. and Its Impact on Iran's 'Political Flexibility' in the Middle East

Many politicians and analysts shared the view even before the announcement of the nuclear agreement between Iran and six world powers in Vienna that the implementation of this agreement could not only affect regional and global equations but may gradually change the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic as well. Recent Iranian diplomatic movements in visits to regional countries and the conciliatory messages from the Iranian President to neighboring countries can be seen as evidence of this. According to Mahjoub Zuyri, a professor of Middle Eastern studies in Qatar, the approval of the agreement by Congress will undoubtedly open up opportunities for Iran in foreign political discussions. If this happens (final approval of the agreement in Congress), American society will transform and look positively at Iran. This is a very important issue. It will undoubtedly impact Iran's foreign policy. The Islamic Republic will use this to show that regional rivals, who always have a negative view of Iran, should also adopt a positive view as American society is transforming. This means it will strengthen Iran's external role, and Iran will try to take advantage of this positively. Republicans have always leaned towards Saudi Arabia, and if this is approved, Republicans will change their stance, and Saudi Arabia will take this matter seriously. On Tuesday, September 24, the U.S. Senate is set to review and vote again on the Vienna nuclear agreement, while almost all Republican senators have publicly or implicitly opposed this agreement. According to Hoshang Amir-Ahmadi, a university professor in the U.S. and founder of the Council on America and Iran, Iran's foreign policy will be flexible in the short term, but its continuation depends on the implementation of the 'JCPOA'. I spoke with two members of the Iranian parliament who were in New York, and the discussion was that if the JCPOA is well implemented, meaning the Americans fulfill their commitments and Mr. Khamenei sees that the JCPOA is being implemented, he will certainly allow the Iranian diplomatic apparatus to show some flexibility in the Iran-U.S. relationship as well. Mr. Amir-Ahmadi tells Radio Farda, 'My assumption is that the Republican Party will unanimously vote against this JCPOA. Republicans are keen to lock the relationship and bring back sanctions. In any case, both the Israelis and Arabs, along with their lobbies and the hardliners in Congress and others like AIPAC, are seriously working on a 'Plan B', and unfortunately, we will certainly witness an increase in some sanctions. I believe that the Islamic Republic's foreign policy will move forward with flexibility in the coming period. That is, it is moving from the nuclear issue to regional issues. My assumption is that in the future, the Islamic Republic's foreign policy will utilize the 'heroic flexibility' of Mr. Khamenei in this regard and try to come to terms with regional countries, especially the U.S., on some regional issues. Of course, if they realize that their flexibility is not effective, then the situation will change, and it could completely disrupt the government of Mr. Rouhani. In the short term, we will see flexibility, and in the medium and long term, it depends on how the JCPOA is implemented. I spoke with two members of the Iranian parliament who were in New York, and the discussion was that if the JCPOA is well implemented, meaning the Americans fulfill their commitments and Mr. Khamenei sees that the JCPOA is being implemented, he will certainly allow the Iranian diplomatic apparatus to show some flexibility in the Iran-U.S. relationship and especially move forward on some regional issues. In the days following the announcement of the Vienna nuclear agreement, U.S. officials have repeatedly spoken about the favorable functions of this agreement in the international arena. Reflecting on the key phrases of their statements that the nuclear agreement with Iran will create a safer Middle East, we will understand more about the impact of the approval of the nuclear agreement in the U.S. Congress on the depth of Iran's foreign policy. Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, has repeatedly spoken about the unchangeability of Iran's foreign policy in the region. He emphasized this policy in his Eid al-Fitr prayer this year, stating, 'Whether this text is approved or not, we will not cease our support for our friends in the region. In any case, our policy towards the arrogant U.S. government will not change. We have no negotiations with the U.S. on various global and regional issues. The U.S. policies in the region are 180 degrees different from the policies of the Islamic Republic.' However, on the other side, Barack Obama, the President of the United States, has repeatedly spoken about the unchanged U.S. policy regarding the current policies of the Islamic Republic in the region after the Vienna nuclear agreement. For three decades, all equations that the Americans had around Iran were such that they could remove Iran from the equations. The Iranians, too, whenever they entered any equation, part of that equation was the removal of the U.S. and its influence. If these two countries are to set aside their rivalry, I think all equations around Iran and in the Middle East could undergo a fundamental change. Farzaneh Roustaei, an international journalist residing in Norway, believes that the statements of the Iranian leader and the U.S. President regarding the unchanged approach towards each other in foreign policy are more for domestic consumption. She states, 'An important page in U.S. foreign policy is being turned, and I see its reflection in Iran's foreign policy and in the arrangement of relationships among countries in the Middle East. For three decades, all equations that the Americans had around Iran were such that they could remove Iran from the equations. The Iranians, too, whenever they entered any equation, part of that equation was the removal of the U.S. and its influence. If these two countries are to set aside their rivalry, I think all equations around Iran and in the Middle East could undergo a fundamental change. The nature of the relationship between Iran and the U.S. can have a significant impact on Iran's relationship with Saudi Arabia, the type of relationship Iran has with the countries of the southern Gulf, all of these will undergo fundamental changes. I believe that even the de-escalation in Iran-U.S. relations that will begin with the Congress's approval will even affect the nature of Iran's relations with Afghanistan. Significant events are underway. Mr. Obama and Mr. Khamenei deliver a significant part of their speeches for domestic consumption.' If the provisions of the Vienna nuclear agreement are implemented with low tension, we can expect that in some international and regional developments, and precisely in areas where both countries have a 'common enemy', steps will be taken in alignment. The fight against the group known as the Islamic Caliphate in the Middle East can be named as one of these common areas. However, despite these speculations, inflexibility against the West remains one of the main components of Iran's foreign policy. According to Mohammad Reza Heydari, a former Iranian diplomat in Norway, it is still Ayatollah Khamenei who outlines the direction of Iran's foreign policy. Mohammad Reza Heydari states, 'What is certain is that the U.S. and European countries are seeking to change Iran's policy within the framework of its relations with the West. However, the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic is set by the leadership office and Mr. Khamenei. This recent meeting of Mr. Khamenei with the Assembly of Experts and the points he made emphasized that the Islamic Republic's policy regarding its neighbors under the title of the resistance axis will not change, and perhaps to some extent, the government of Hassan Rouhani can carry out a policy of de-escalation with European countries and have a somewhat moderating policy with them. Otherwise, based on my experience in the Foreign Ministry, what is conveyed from the leadership office to the Foreign Ministry must be implemented. Although Western experts and Americans expect the Islamic Republic to gradually change its policy in this regard.' Barack Obama, the President of the United States, stated in an interview with the Mike website in mid-August that any change in Iran's foreign policy must occur through a transition from within the country, a transition that, according to him, if even gradual, will quickly return Iran to the global community.