First Debate Between Trump and Clinton; Expectations of Record-Breaking Viewership

Despite the very low popularity of both candidates in the U.S. presidential election, the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on Monday, September 26, is expected to break previous viewership records, drawing between 80 to 100 million viewers to watch their 90-minute confrontation. In a highly polarized American society, with only six weeks left until the elections, Clinton and Trump are spending millions on television ads and highlighting each other's weaknesses while attending campaign rallies in various cities, particularly those where the competition is closer. This negative advertising has turned their face-off into a significant curiosity among different layers of American society, as both candidates have serious disagreements on nearly all issues they address, from immigration to the economy, security, women's issues, military forces, and foreign policy. Another point of interest is the very close polling numbers between Clinton and Trump. A poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC just days before the first debate shows Clinton at 46% and Trump at 44%, indicating a very tight race. Therefore, the candidates expect to use every opportunity to push their opponent back. The three debates may be the best opportunity for Trump and Clinton, who have not yet faced each other on stage, to directly challenge one another despite their significant differences in policies, character, and professional backgrounds. One issue facing the upcoming U.S. election is voter disinterest in the two candidates. Many supporters hope that effective participation in the debates will energize Republican and Democratic voters to head to the polls. The first debate, which will take place at Hofstra University in New York, is designed entirely for television audiences. This means that few people will watch the debate up close, and they have been instructed to maintain silence. The audience will not be illuminated, so they will not be seen, and there will be no microphone among the audience to capture their voices. The Commission on Presidential Debates sets the rules for this debate, which is a nonpartisan body made up of Republicans and Democrats. During the 90 minutes, which will not include commercial breaks, the screen will be split when the candidates speak, allowing viewers to see the reactions and body language of the other candidate in response to their opponent's words. Thus, gestures and facial expressions can reflect confidence, anger, and other feelings that will not go unnoticed by the audience. Almost all predictions estimate between 80 to 100 million viewers for this debate, a number typically reserved for major American football games. Since 1960, only once, in 1980 during the debate between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, did the number of television viewers exceed 80 million. The 1960 debate between Nixon and Kennedy had over 70 million viewers. Barack Obama's debates with John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 had over 60 million viewers. In many U.S. cities, citizens are preparing to watch this historic debate collectively by organizing parties or planning to gather in public places. In a poll conducted by The New York Times and CBS, 83% of registered voters said they would watch the debate. The importance of this debate is so high that despite no commercials being aired during the 90 minutes, companies like Audi and a Mexican brewery, Tecate, have prepared election-themed ads for before and after the program. This is something that large companies typically do for events like the Super Bowl. This indicates the considerable excitement and curiosity that has developed around this debate in recent weeks. The debate will be available not only on NBC but also on television, Facebook, and Twitter. In the weeks leading up to the debate, Clinton has spent a lot of time preparing with her advisors. Hundreds of pages of research on Trump, studying his psychological traits, watching previous debate footage, reviewing policies and statements made by her opponent, and arranging several mock debates to boost her mental readiness and information during the main debate are among the actions taken by the Democratic candidate. On the other hand, those close to Trump's campaign say he does not want to overprepare for the debate, which is why he even participated in a campaign rally last Saturday. Trump's strength lies in his interruptions during his opponents' speeches and his use of harsh and sometimes 'offensive' language, as well as discussing topics that are often unrelated to his policies, which he does naturally. He also has a history of ignoring his advisors' recommendations and can act spontaneously in ways that may not have been suggested by those close to him and could even backfire. Trump considers himself a master orator, but according to those who have worked with him, focusing on a topic for more than half an hour is very difficult for him. This is one area that Clinton's team has focused on. Various sources have high expectations for how the candidates will endure a 90-minute marathon, where they may forget everything they have been told in preparation due to fatigue, anger, and anxiety about performance or weak responses, and instinctively react to questions, saying things that could be detrimental to them. Clinton's team, considering Trump's unpredictability, will plan for various techniques he may use on stage. The primary debates have certainly been very helpful in this regard. In those debates, Trump insulted other candidates, interrupted them, and used gestures to distract the audience from what his opponent was saying, employing incorrect numbers and information to support his statements, ultimately disrupting his opponent's mental order. The main topics of the first debate will include America's direction for the future, plans for achieving economic prosperity, and related security programs. The debate will be divided into six 15-minute segments, each focused on topics chosen by the moderator. The moderator will start each of these six segments with a question. Each candidate will have two minutes to respond to the questions. The candidates will have the opportunity to react to each other's answers. Clinton's campaign officials have focused on Trump's previous statements in recent weeks, and it is expected that false claims he has made will be addressed by Clinton during the debate. The Clinton campaign has asked the debate organizers to ensure the moderator fact-checks statements made and to avoid allowing falsehoods to go unchallenged. The moderator for the first debate will be Lester Holt, a 57-year-old NBC journalist who hosts the network's evening news program. He is a powerful journalist known among his peers for being persistent in his questioning and for pointing out any incorrect figures used. Therefore, given that both Trump and Clinton may present false narratives about events and statistics, he will take steps to correct them. Holt has taken time off from his job in recent days and has been preparing for this debate with the help of several reporters covering the campaigns. Although Holt was the moderator for one of the primary debates, this will be the first time he moderates a final debate between a Democratic and a Republican candidate. In recent days, Trump has attempted to question the legitimacy of the debate moderator. For instance, he tweeted that Holt is a Democrat, while Holt votes as a Republican, as evidenced by his records. In journalistic circles, there has been significant discussion about whether the moderator can correct candidates when they make false statements. For example, if a claim is made that is false, can the moderator interrupt and correct it? The general sentiment in journalistic circles is that given the vast audience for these debates, journalists should intervene appropriately to prevent candidates from misleading the public with false information. Ultimately, even before the first debate, expectations for Hillary Clinton are much higher compared to her opponent. Donald Trump has made so many provocative, insulting, and false statements over the past year that if he shows just one reasonable behavior in this debate and controls his tone and speech, it will be considered a significant success for him, even if he fails to respond to questions regarding the details of his policies. Therefore, it remains to be seen how effectively Clinton can challenge him with serious, concise, and direct questions about his policies, forcing him to respond in a way that questions his readiness for the White House. Additionally, it will be interesting to see whether Donald Trump can endure the full 90 minutes and follow his advisors' recommendations for conducting this debate, or if he will revert to his instinctive style from the primary debates, engaging with Clinton, who conducts herself very professionally and orderly in debates. A woman who not only has to defend her own record but also must answer for her husband, who was President of the United States for eight years and faced numerous issues and scandals. Analysts believe that attacking Bill Clinton could be a risky strategy for the Republican candidate, as it is Hillary Clinton's name that will appear on the ballots, and such tactics may backfire against Trump.