Fitzpatrick: An Agreement on the Missile Program is Achievable

There are about two months left in the 90-day period that the U.S. government has to confirm the JCPOA. Before this deadline, U.S. President Donald Trump has asked European countries to address what he sees as flaws in the JCPOA, otherwise he will decide to withdraw from it. On Monday, Vice President Mike Pence reiterated this position. One of the issues of concern for the U.S. President is Iran's missile program, which he has criticized extensively in recent months and imposed sanctions on. Trump's request comes at a time when Iran has repeatedly stated that it will not negotiate on the missile issue, which is part of its defense system. In this regard, Radio Farda spoke with Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Washington. Fitzpatrick wrote in an article published last week that countries usually negotiate more easily about capabilities they do not possess. In a recent article you published with one of your colleagues, you wrote that countries usually find it easier to negotiate about capabilities they do not have. Why do you think Iran will not act differently from this rule? We say that it is always easier to convince countries to limit capabilities they do not have. Therefore, we say that Iran can be encouraged not to pursue intercontinental and long-range ballistic missiles that it does not possess. The difficult issue of negotiation is the continuation of work on medium-range missiles that could be designed to carry nuclear warheads. Therefore, Iran may agree to accept some limitations on such programs, as Tehran insists that it is not seeking nuclear weapons. Iran does not need to design its missiles with the capability to carry weapons. For this reason, Iran can be encouraged to accept some limitations. If it does not do so, it will likely face increased sanctions due to these missiles. In recent days, reports from Israel indicate that the Prime Minister of that country will ask the U.S. to impose restrictions on missiles with a range of 300 kilometers as well. This comes while the U.S. has so far expressed concern only about long-range missiles. How realistic do you think this request, which has not been officially confirmed, is? I think it is unrealistic for Israel to want Iran to be limited even in the area of missiles with a range of 300 kilometers. Iran is not willing to give up all its missiles and will not. For Iran, these missiles are closely tied to two issues: defense and deterrence. Iran has previously been the target of attacks from such missiles with a range of 300 kilometers by Iraq and has sought to acquire these missiles, and I do not think it will be willing to give them up. The reason Israel is now insisting on this issue, in my opinion, is part of a tactic. However, the main priority should be the missile system with a longer range that will have the capability to carry nuclear warheads. Such missiles pose a more serious threat to Israel. Recently, Europeans have become very active regarding the missile issue, especially the French, whose foreign minister was in Iran trying to bring Iran to the negotiating table regarding its missile program. There are even reports from Iran indicating that the French president's visit to Tehran depends on this issue. Meanwhile, three European countries will hold their third meeting with the U.S. in Berlin next week. Are we entering a new phase that will have a process similar to the nuclear negotiations? I do not think it will have a similar process to the nuclear negotiations. I believe France, the U.S., and other countries want to engage in dialogue with Iran about its missile program. France is leading this process for several reasons. First, France is concerned about Iran's missile program, especially since some of these missiles are designed to carry nuclear weapons. France also has significant national interests in the Middle East and sees these missiles as a factor for destabilizing the region and its interests. Another reason for France's actions is tactical. France wants the JCPOA to remain intact, and President Trump has emphasized that Europeans should cooperate with him to find a way to limit Iran's missiles and extend the JCPOA's restrictions. The missile issue is one of those topics where progress can be made, and France wants to work on it while also showing the United States how actively they are working in this area. It can be said that in a way, they are even trying to calm Trump down so that he does not withdraw from the JCPOA. You previously mentioned that this issue of defense and deterrence is very important for Iran. Even on Monday, when Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, met with the French Foreign Minister, some observers said that his presence in military uniform sent a message to France in this regard. From what perspective do you think there is a way to make progress in this area? Iran has repeatedly stated that it does not need missiles with a range greater than two thousand kilometers. Therefore, this could be a starting point where Tehran can turn this statement into a commitment in discussions with other countries. This requires some changes in Iran's missile program. The Khorramshahr missile has a range of over two thousand kilometers, which depends on the weight of the warhead it carries. A very heavy warhead brings this range down to two thousand kilometers, but otherwise, it has a greater range. This is an example of the kind of issues that should be discussed and a way found. In any case, I believe that since Iran does not need missiles with the capability to carry nuclear weapons, there is a basis for finding an agreement. It will not be simple or quick, but eventually, the parties can reach some kind of agreement.