Fitzpatrick: It's Too Early to Celebrate

On Wednesday and Thursday, the city of Brussels hosted a conference on the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. The conference was organized by the European Union's Non-Proliferation Consortium, with the International Institute for Strategic Studies being one of its members. Over the two days of the conference, more than 300 participants discussed various issues related to nuclear energy and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, particularly Iran's nuclear program and the agreement surrounding it. Among the speakers were senior EU officials, including Federica Mogherini, the EU's foreign policy chief, and her deputy Helga Schmid, as well as Yukiya Amano, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and other current and former officials of this international body. After the conference, Radio Farda interviewed Mark Fitzpatrick, the Director of the Disarmament Program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Fitzpatrick noted that the atmosphere was positive, with the nuclear agreement with Iran being the dominant topic, although other issues related to the non-proliferation of nuclear and chemical weapons were also addressed. However, he cautioned that it is still too early to celebrate, as the agreement must be implemented and there are serious challenges ahead, which were raised in multiple speeches. He expressed that no convincing answers were provided to ensure the audience's complete confidence in the smooth execution of the agreement. At one point, a speaker asked the audience to raise their hands to indicate whether they believed the agreement would be sustainable, and the majority responded positively. Nevertheless, Fitzpatrick pointed out that many questions and issues were raised that experts could not satisfactorily answer. On Wednesday, Yukiya Amano provided an overview of Iran's interactions with the IAEA from the past to the present, which garnered attention. Fitzpatrick was asked whether there could be complete trust and verification of Iran's nuclear file, to which he responded that expecting 100% assurance would be excessive, but appropriate verification could be conducted. He highlighted the case of Parchin, noting that the sampling method used there could set a negative precedent. He explained that while the sampling met agency standards, the fact that the sites for sampling were pre-announced could negatively impact the agency's future actions, as unpredictability is crucial in investigations. Therefore, without this factor, one cannot have complete confidence in the sampling results. He emphasized that this is a technical issue and does not imply that the agreement is flawed, but it remains a concerning matter. Fitzpatrick acknowledged that the most crucial moment to watch for is the IAEA's report on December 15 regarding the PMD issue. Amano stated that the agency would conduct its technical work impartially, with the final decision resting with the Board of Governors. Fitzpatrick noted that the best prediction came from a panelist who expected that while the agency would be able to get answers from Iran to all 12 questions, some questions would remain unanswered. He agreed, stating that if Iran has not fully answered these questions over the years, it is unlikely to do so in five months. He warned that if the file is not fully closed, the Iranian leader has stated that Iran's actions will not be based on the JCPOA, which poses a serious problem. Fitzpatrick concluded that Iran must implement the agreement, and Western countries should accept the responses even if they are not complete. Both sides cannot adopt rigid approaches and must show flexibility. If Iran insists too much on this issue, it must accept responsibility for the failure of the agreement and the continuation of sanctions.