Five Key Points Regarding the Transformation of Iran's Population Structure

In the last days of the current solar year, the 'Summary Results of the 2016 Population and Housing Census' was published by the Statistical Center of Iran. Although not all statistics from the census have been released, this summary contains noteworthy points and illustrates the long-term trends in Iran's demographic structure, which significantly impacts the economic and political spheres. For instance, demographic changes will have important consequences for Iran's labor market, housing market, and education sector. The cultural and political arenas will also naturally be influenced by these demographic changes, as lifestyle and political demands will evolve with the population structure and variables such as the increasing urbanization ratio and expanding literacy. Population growth and structural transformation are among the most observable social phenomena in the history of social change in Iran over the past century. Iran's population, which was about 13 million in the mid-1950s, has increased to approximately 80 million over 65 years. This increase and structural change are the result of various factors and will have significant consequences. In societies like Iran, where economic growth is typically slow and externally driven, population growth can serve as a motivation for increased production under certain conditions. However, if social and economic facilities do not increase in tandem with population growth, per capita welfare will decline. Thus, population growth signifies new conditions and challenges. In Iran's specific circumstances, population growth means new problems, as a young population that cannot be transformed into a productive workforce through education and employment will lead to economic imbalances such as reduced per capita income, decreased employment, class gaps, and poverty. The repercussions of such problems in social relations are very complex and intricate. The first key point from these statistics is the decrease in the population growth rate. The second key point indicates a reduction in household size—the number of family members is decreasing. The third key point is the level of urbanization, which reflects a quiet yet profound transformation in Iranian society. The literacy rate is nearly 94%. The increase in the average age of the population is another key point indicating the demographic changes in Iran. The first key point is the decrease in the population growth rate. Despite the government's efforts to increase the population growth rate, the population growth rate over the last five years (2012-2016) has decreased compared to the five years prior (2007-2011). In other words, despite the populist policies of the government over the past decade, Iran's population growth rate has reached its lowest level in 60 years. This trend is the result of factors such as lifestyle changes, economic relations transformations, urbanization, and increased literacy, among others. The second key point indicates a reduction in household size—the number of family members is decreasing. The average household size this year has reached 3.3 persons, whereas the average household size in 1976 was 5 persons. The reduction in family size will have significant consequences, including a decrease in women's domestic activities, an increase in outside work, and more leisure time for family members. The transformation in household size, which is itself a result of lifestyle changes, will spur cultural transformations. The level of urbanization is the third key point that indicates a quiet yet profound transformation in Iranian society. The urbanization ratio in 1976 was nearly 31%, it reached 47% in the late years of the previous regime, and now it has reached 74%. The increase in the number of cities (from 201 cities in 1956 to 1245 cities in 2016) and the population density in old cities have expanded the scope of urbanization. The expansion of urbanization will have significant impacts on family structure and the distribution of roles among its members. The dominance of urbanization over the population and household structure means that the family—as a social unit that was a production and consumption unit in traditional agricultural society—has become a consumer unit. Consequently, family members take on new roles in production organizations outside the family. As a result, women's previous unpaid and informal work at home will gradually give way to paid work outside the family. In such conditions, if women's labor was previously influential within the family system, it will gradually overshadow the formal sector of society, which is the visible part of society. Social transformation in a specific geographical point can be transferred to other areas. The impact of geographical-population integration on issues such as language, culture, customs, habits, and collective consciousness and behavior is undeniable. Until a hundred years ago, various geographical points in Iran were often isolated communities and islands from each other. With population growth and consequently increased population density, followed by the increase and expansion of cities, geographical integration has gradually increased. The use of new communication tools positively affected this process, enhancing social integration. In such conditions, social transformation in a specific geographical point can be transferred to other areas. The impact of geographical-population integration on issues such as language, culture, customs, habits, and collective consciousness and behavior is undeniable. The literacy rate increased from just over 65% in 1976 to over 87% this year. The literacy rate for the population aged 10 and over is even higher, nearing 94%. The increase in the average age of the population is another key point indicating the demographic changes in Iran. With the aging population and the shift in the age pyramid towards middle age and old age, significant changes will occur in the labor market and other economic variables such as community healthcare costs and social insurance expenses. The reduction in the labor force and the increase in the elderly's dependence on social insurance will be among the consequences of the rising average age of the population. Additionally, as the population ages, some social challenges, such as intergenerational gaps, will increase. The latest demographic statistics of Iran, on average, indicate a decrease in the population growth rate, shrinking household size (decrease in the number of members), increased urbanization and number of cities, and rising literacy levels and average age of the population. With the transformation of Iran's population structure, changes in cultural, social, and economic relations will be inevitable. These consequences, due to the structural nature of the transformations mentioned, will gradually manifest in various spheres.