Five Points on Mehdi Karroubi's 'Historic Letter'

Mehdi Karroubi, in an open letter addressed to Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran, has made a profound critique of what he calls the 'tyrannical rule.' It is not an exaggeration to say that this letter will be cited by historians in evaluating the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei in the future. Below, we review five points regarding this historic letter: First: This is the only letter from the house arrest during approximately five years of illegal detention of the leaders of the Green Movement, although sporadic news and opinions from them were occasionally leaked by their associates, the emergence of a written letter from them is unprecedented. Although Hassan Rouhani has been unable to lift the house arrest, the release of such a sharp letter against the tyrannical rule is a significant indication of the support they have received to communicate from outside their confinement. It should be noted that, according to Karroubi's children, he was at one point deprived of fresh air, sunlight, and reading newspapers during his house arrest, let alone being able to issue such a letter today. Second: The timing of the letter's release coincides with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's implicit announcement of his candidacy for the 2017 presidential elections, where he stated that Rouhani's government has 'messed things up.' In such a situation, with a year remaining until the 2017 elections, the hardline faction, with Ahmadinejad's involvement, has initiated the upcoming elections, making it the best time for Karroubi to critique Ahmadinejad and his supporters (the leader and the IRGC). In fact, Karroubi aims at two targets from within house arrest: a strong critique of the coup leaders of 2009 and a validation of Rouhani's government. Third: The absent present in the letter. Although the letter is addressed to President Rouhani, Karroubi employs literary irony throughout the letter, directing the reader's mind towards the 'tyrannical rule' that he deliberately avoids naming. Despite this irony, Karroubi leaves no doubt for the reader about who the 'absent present' is that he boldly attacks. Undoubtedly, this letter should be considered one of the most vehement expressions we have seen from Mehdi Karroubi so far. Although he was known for his frankness before his house arrest, he had never gone so far as to refer to the leader of the Islamic Republic as 'tyrannical rule' and seek to prove 'who is unworthy.' Fourth: The tone of the letter. By calling Hassan Rouhani 'brother' at the beginning of the letter and then referring to him as 'the president,' Karroubi expresses his utmost joy regarding the 2013 elections, which were orchestrated by Hashemi Rafsanjani, Khatami, and the social base of the Green Movement. Reminding of Khamenei's 'Godspeed' to the most corrupt government, Karroubi cleverly reminds the reader of Khamenei's two strong supports for Ahmadinejad: one at the beginning of Ahmadinejad's second term when Khamenei stated in a Friday prayer on June 19, 2009, that 'the president's [Ahmadinejad's] opinion is closer to mine,' and the other at the end of his eight-year term when Khamenei, in appreciation of 'enduring round-the-clock work,' deemed Ahmadinejad's government worthy of 'Godspeed,' saying: 'What I must say to friends today is primarily Godspeed; may you not be tired. You worked for eight years, you made efforts, good things were accomplished, and you showed endurance in the hardships of round-the-clock work, meaning it was seen and felt.' However, now that some of Ahmadinejad's government's corruption has been revealed, Karroubi, calling this period 'disastrous,' writes: 'Unfortunately, in both terms... a deceitful and lying individual who attributed falsehoods to the sacred and Shi'ism was imposed on the nation and country, resulting in the most corrupt government after the Constitutional Revolution under the name of the Islamic Revolution.' Fifth: The regression of the Guardian Council. While Khamenei has deemed the positions of the Guardian Council as 'the rights of the people,' Karroubi has directed his sharp arrows at this council, describing it as a factor in the violation of people's rights by referring to the 'regression' of the Guardian Council. In a clear description of the autocratic rule, Karroubi writes: 'If in the corrupt regime of the past, figures like Shaban Jafari were used on August 19, 1953, and June 5, 1963, in this rule, every day throughout the country, such thugs are used to attack the residences of religious authorities, critical religious and political figures, embassies, and scientific and artistic centers.' This is a complete mirror that Karroubi places before the eyes of history to show that the tyrannical ruler of Iran relies not on one Shaban, but on hundreds like him to maintain the pillars of his power. Borrowing from the leader's rhetoric against the leader, Karroubi beautifully employs Khamenei's language by using terms like infiltrators, the blind, the unworthy, etc., and uses them against the 'tyrannical rule.' He writes: 'The irony of the matter is that those [Khamenei] who sacrificed the material and spiritual assets of the country for a charlatan [Ahmadinejad] and whose insight has become clear to all these days, have become insightful and worthy; and those who warned and predicted these days... have been called unworthy.' In another part of the letter, he demands a public trial for himself to prove who is worthy and who is unworthy. Reference to Khamenei's psychological disorders is one of the sharpest points of Karroubi's letter when he describes the 'delusions' of the rulers of power as 'pitiful.' The notion that the leader of the Islamic Republic is suffering from psychological disorders such as delusions and paranoia has been noted by observers in recent years. However, Karroubi's explicit description of the rulers of power and the tyrannical rule as 'delusional' is new. Karroubi, in the last part of the letter, courageously states that his motivation for writing the letter is not to lift his house arrest but to demand a presence in a public court 'to inform the public about the evidence of the fraud in the 2005 presidential election, the engineering of the 2009 presidential election, and what happened to the children of this country in detention centers.' In this expression of courage, he goes so far as to write: 'I will accept the verdict issued by this court [even if it is execution] with all my heart and will welcome it without considering the right to appeal.' Consequences of this letter. The house arrest of the leaders of the Green Movement, each of whom is a prominent figure in this system, has become a thorn in the side of the tyrannical rule of the Islamic Republic. Khamenei previously asked, 'Why do they not repent?' With the writing of this letter, Karroubi has shown that after five exhausting years of house arrest, he is not only unrepentant about his positions but remains steadfast and firm on each of his stances as on the first day. This is despite the fact that due to the pressures from house arrest, he has undergone several surgeries and suffered irreparable physical harm but has not retreated from his positions. Meanwhile, in the conservative faction, figures like Habibollah Asgaroladi do not consider the Green leaders as 'seditionists,' and Ali Motahari, despite Khamenei's endorsement of their house arrest, has described such an action as 'oppressive.' Ali Motahari used this description after meeting with Khamenei and stated that he was not convinced by the leader's remarks. Although it is not unexpected that in response to this letter, pressure on the Green leaders may increase, this letter will undoubtedly strengthen the Hashemi-Khatami-Rouhani front against Khamenei and his appointed institutions. This strengthening of this front will, in turn, impact the 2017 presidential elections in favor of the mentioned front and to the detriment of Khamenei, especially since the results of the two elections for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts in 2016 have also shifted the power equations against the tyrannical rule.