Five Scenarios by the Boris Nemtsov Foundation for the Future of Russia

"The Boris Nemtsov Foundation for Freedom"* in collaboration with a research institute based in Prague called "Czech Republic Priorities" has examined five possible scenarios for the future of Russia and its impact on international affairs, particularly concerning European Union countries. Analysts in a report titled "Examining the Future of Russia After 2030" concluded that until the end of Vladimir Putin's rule, Russia will continue to plunge deeper into dictatorship. However, "in the event of a relatively peaceful transfer of power, such as following Putin's natural death or his resignation from governing the country," the new Russian government will take steps to fully restore relations with the West. These analysts believe that by that time, Russia's interactions with non-Western countries will be strengthened to the extent that the pressure tools of the United States and the European Union will not be very effective. At the same time, Moscow will undoubtedly seek to revive relations with the West, including lifting sanctions, the return of international companies, and the import of Western technology, and most importantly, new agreements regarding natural resources and energy. Meanwhile, the authors of this report estimate the likelihood of the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine and the signing of a peace agreement between the two countries before 2030 to be "only 30 percent," although conflicts may cease earlier with a ceasefire. Vladimir Putin's current presidential term ends in May 2030 (Ordibehesht 1409), after which new elections are expected to be held in Russia. According to the authors of the report "Examining the Future of Russia After 2030," Putin's death would cause the new Russian government to focus primarily on domestic affairs. A complete change among the power elites will not occur, but younger, somewhat more liberal and pragmatic politicians will significantly increase their influence, while extreme nationalists, conservatives, and the most autocratic figures of the current government will lose the most important levers of power: "We can talk about the beginning of a strategic change in Russia's leadership." According to this scenario, the government "after Putin" will likely reduce the intensity of repression against civil society and Putin's opponents. On the international stage, this government will "become interested in significant support from Western countries and will need assistance from the US and Europe to maintain relative economic welfare and prevent deeper social divides." Analysts believe that Ramzan Kadyrov's rule over Chechnya, which has been strengthened with Putin's support, will seek to revive independence after this period, especially if Kadyrov himself dies, and this change will trigger nationalist movements in other North Caucasian republics and possibly some regions of Siberia, likely supported by Turkey and Gulf powers. According to this report, by the end of Putin's term, Russia's dependence on China will increasingly intensify, but at the end of this period, especially if tensions between China and the US escalate, the inclination of the new Russian rulers towards the West will again become apparent, and they will strive to reduce China's influence. Analysts do not rule out that before the end of Vladimir Putin's and Alexander Lukashenko's rule in Minsk, Belarus may join Russia as a "unified state" or parts of Belarus may be annexed to Russia. "Western fatigue" will hinder these developments, and changing this course will only be possible "after the end of Putin's term." However, according to this report, the most significant developments "in the post-Putin period" relate to Ukraine. From the analysts' perspective, the new US government will likely attempt to encourage the Kremlin to sign a peace treaty with Ukraine, but "achieving this request faces challenges." The negative peace scenario, according to the authors of the report "Examining the Future of Russia After 2030," is that part of Ukraine's territories may become neutral, and in exchange for receiving new guarantees about Ukraine's neutrality, the issue of Crimea's return to Ukraine will not even be raised, (which will ultimately prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and the European Union). As a result, after an unsuccessful attempt at peace mediation and due to internal political, social, and economic problems, the United States will focus its attention on other countries, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, and will limit support for Ukraine. According to this report, "this scenario will not only have long-term destructive consequences for Ukraine and Europe but will also be detrimental to Russia, as it complicates and makes the prospect of reviving this country's relations with the West after Putin's term more elusive." Protesters gather in front of the International Court of Justice in The Hague demanding the arrest of Vladimir Putin, May 2024. Pavel Gavlicek, a political analyst from the Czech Republic and one of the authors of this report, describes the prospects for a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine and the challenges in achieving it in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: "We estimate a 30 percent chance that the war between Russia and Ukraine will end with the signing of a long-term peace treaty by 2030, as many issues seem unsolvable. For Putin, control over the occupied regions is a secondary issue; the existence of a puppet government in Kyiv is his main goal. Meanwhile, the acceptance of a Kremlin-subservient government by the Ukrainian people is far-fetched." From the analysts' perspective, there is another scenario for ending the war. According to this scenario, Western countries insist on supporting Ukraine, which allows Kyiv to liberate the occupied territories. To achieve this goal, the West must be able to neutralize the assistance of China, North Korea, and Iran to Russia. This scenario can be viewed as a complete victory for Ukraine and the West. However, analysts believe that "with the rise of Russia-backed forces and those seeking normalization of relations with Moscow in many European Union countries," the likelihood of this scenario is decreasing. Pavel Gavlicek, a political analyst from the Czech Republic, tells Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: "In our report, we show that there are two paths with two contradictory destinations, and the choice of either is up to the West." He adds: "The European Union must understand the seriousness of Russia's efforts to incite division and disorder and must now focus on developing a strategy considering the end of Putin's term." The authors of this report believe that the European Union should support individuals, organizations, and specific initiatives inside and outside Russia that can play a significant role in Russia's future. According to Gavlicek, "We say Putin is 72 years old, and his rule is not eternal. It is Europe's duty to help empower forces in Russia that can bring Putin to the International Criminal Court, just as happened at the end of Slobodan Milosevic's term in former Yugoslavia. This is an investment in a peaceful future for all European countries."