Food Security and Safety in Iran from an Economic Perspective

Introduction - Many still remember the statement of the tenth government president who said in an interview: "Perhaps [Iran] is the only country on Earth where no family goes to bed hungry at night and has clothing." Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also announced at a ceremony honoring exemplary workers in the country: "In the vast land of Iran, there is no one hungry." However, the head of the Food Science and Industry Research Institute recently announced: "According to statistics, 5% of the population of Iran suffers from hunger." Therefore, based on approximate population statistics, it can be claimed that more than three and a half million people in the country suffer from hunger to some extent. Meanwhile, food security and safety are considered one of the strategic goals of governments and also one of the components of national security. Additionally, the food security index affects health indicators, which are considered criteria for development. A decrease in the country's food security and safety means an increased likelihood of harm to public health and the well-being of citizens. If we look at this damage solely from an economic perspective, in the long term, it poses a threat to the human capital of the workforce and the country, which is the foundation of national production, raises treatment costs, and obstructs the country's development. According to the definition of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), food security means that all citizens have physical and economic access to the food they need at all times. It is important to distinguish between security and safety; food security refers to universal access to sufficient food, while food safety pertains to healthy and appropriately quality food. The food security index affects health indicators, which are considered criteria for development. A decrease in the country's food security and safety means an increased likelihood of harm to public health and the well-being of citizens. If we look at this damage solely from an economic perspective, in the long term, it poses a threat to the human capital of the workforce and the country, which is the foundation of national production, raises treatment costs, and obstructs the country's development. Food security and safety in Iran have been affected in recent years by reduced economic growth, increased unemployment, uneven distribution of wealth and income, inflation, poverty, and widespread misery. Simultaneously, due to capital flight and labor from the agricultural sector and its inefficiency, food production has decreased, and imports have taken its place. In a sense, the daily food of the people has become dependent on oil revenues. Behind these economic factors, various political reasons must also be considered. Politics in Iran is rent-seeking, meaning that unaccountable officials have power, wealth, and status, resulting in a rent-seeking and polarized economy. Naturally, the consequence is the concentration of vast wealth in the hands of a small group and widespread poverty, capital flight from production to speculation, and a decrease in agricultural and food production capacity. According to the latest report from the Central Bank, in 2005, just over 25% of the average urban household expenditure was allocated to food. In 2013, the share of food expenditure in household budgets increased by about 1%, but an examination of food consumption items shows that the share of major items in kilograms has significantly decreased, indicating a reduction in calorie, vitamin, and protein consumption. Therefore, with the decrease in household purchasing power, food consumption has declined. At the same time, some expensive food items such as fruits, vegetables, and protein sources have been removed from the household consumption basket, and lower-quality food items have replaced them. Food security and safety in Iran, like other societies with wide class gaps, are affected by the distribution of assets, income, power, and status. According to a recently published report by the Central Bank, in 2014, a household in the lowest decile of society - the poorest segment - spent 169,429 tomans per month on food and drink, while a household in the wealthiest group - the tenth decile - spent 1,491,072 tomans on the same goods. In other words, the top 10% of the income group spent more than 8 times what the low-income group spent on food and groceries. However, the problem of food in Iran is not only related to price but also to quality, which is declining. Given the shortcomings of the production and distribution system in Iran, it is unlikely that these problems will be resolved in the short term unless food production and distribution in Iran become active in the global export market. In that case, there may be hope that through learning in the shadow of competition, the Iranian food production and distribution system will adopt new scientific methods for improvement. The experience of other countries confirms this approach. Overall, the food inflation rate in the country is much higher than the average total inflation in Iran and internationally, confirming that the structure of production and distribution in Iran is not optimal. For this reason, Iran's agricultural economy lacks the competitiveness of other countries. This issue does not only pertain to food prices, as production in Iran is inherently expensive. The rent-seeking economy, the dominance of the government and semi-governmental entities over the economy, and the lack of a suitable business environment are major factors that make production and distribution in Iran expensive. This is why many former producers prefer to become importers. Consequently, Iran's position in global rankings is not favorable. According to FAO assessments, in 2013, Iran ranked 80th in the global dietary quality ranking among 125 countries. Iran is ranked lower than Saudi Arabia and Turkey and has experienced a ten-place drop compared to the previous year, 2012. Given the structural economic problems, sanctions, increasing unemployment rates, and high inflation rates in Iran, it seems unlikely that Iran's position will change significantly in the coming years. In this regard, the current trend of land use change will "lead Iran to famine." Grain exporters are waiting for the lifting of sanctions on Iran. The United Nations General Assembly approves a 15-year sustainable development program. The changing landscape of "proxy wars"; a war against the people in the streets of Iran. The first paragraph; the responsibility of opponents and the possibility of radicalization of Iranian society. The death of the last Mossad representative in Tehran amid the Iranian crisis. Trump: I hope there will be no need for further action regarding Iran; they were killing people recklessly. The shadow of war over Tehran; "Trump is looking for decisive military options against Iran." Trump says if the Islamic Republic tries to assassinate him, "it will be wiped off the face of the earth." A senior U.S. official: The Trump administration is closely monitoring the case of Reza Valizadeh. Trump emphasizes "stopping executions in Iran": we do not know what will happen in the future.