Food Shortage Threat in Iran; Production and Import of Essential Goods Decreased by 50%

Reports indicate that the import of essential goods has decreased by an average of 50% over the past eight months, and in the area of red meat production, there was a 30% decline in November of this year compared to the previous year; a trend that analysts believe signals a major crisis in food supply and shortages of food items in the market. The news agency 'Tasnim', known to be close to security institutions and supportive of the government, reported that according to customs statistics, the import of dry tea, rice, raw sugar, chicken meat, and wheat has decreased in value by 57.69%, 53.89%, 51.98%, 48.11%, and 46.20% respectively compared to the same period last year. In another report, the Statistical Center announced today, Saturday, December 16, that a comparison of the performance of official slaughterhouses in November 2023 with the same month in 2022 shows a 30% decrease in the supply of red meat in the country’s official slaughterhouses. This center also reported that the supply of poultry meat in official slaughterhouses in November 2023 decreased by about 6% compared to the previous month. The declining trend in the import of essential goods comes at a time when in May of this year, Kaveh Zargaran, the head of the Iranian Grains Association, declared the situation of reserves for some essential goods to be critical and stated that there is a possibility of shortages in 2024. Analysts believe that with the noticeable decrease in the import of essential goods in the coming months, the market will undergo price and inventory changes. Accordingly, it is predicted that the shocks resulting from this decrease will first manifest as price increases and subsequently as shortages and rationing in the market. One of the main reasons for the significant decrease in imports is the lack of foreign currency needed for essential goods, as well as raw materials and necessary items. This situation has led to complaints from importers and producers. In this regard, Jebreil Baradari, the head of the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Tehran Province, noted on October 16 of this year that one of the current problems in chicken production is the excessive delay in clearing ships carrying soybean cargoes at the country’s ports, which is also related to the issue of currency allocation. The situation of supply and storage of essential goods in the country and the food inflation rate of over 50% has raised alarm bells for officials of the Islamic Republic and Ali Khamenei as well. In this context, the website 'Khabar Online' reported on December 12 that it reviewed the warnings of clerics to Raisi and wrote that even Ali Khamenei, in response to government reports, asked, 'What has happened on the ground?' The website stated that in simpler terms, the leader of the Islamic Republic is asking Ebrahim Raisi what has happened in practice, apart from the reports. Government officials in recent months have claimed that the country's conditions are suitable and improving, announcing statistics that many experts believe are 'fabricated'. Meanwhile, numerous reports published by media and social networks portray a different picture of the community's situation and livelihood challenges.