Forecast of 'Approval' to Close Iran's Military File at the IAEA Board of Governors

Iran's representative at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) predicted that a resolution from the 5+1 group will be approved on December 15, leading to the closure of the possible military dimensions (PMD) file of Iran's nuclear program. According to state news agency IRNA, Reza Najafi described sections 9, 11, and 13 of the resolution as its three 'key' clauses. He stated that section 9 indicates that the Board of Governors acknowledges that all activities in the roadmap have been implemented, thus concluding its review of the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program. Section 11 states that from the day the Vienna nuclear agreement is implemented, all 12 previous resolutions of the Board, including two PMD resolutions from November 2011 and September 2012, will be considered 'revoked' and 'terminated.' Najafi explained that this revocation means the IAEA Director General will no longer have responsibilities regarding PMD and will only report on the implementation of the Vienna agreement or any specific issues arising from it. Section 13 also removes the topic of 'safeguards implementation and previous Security Council resolutions' from the agenda from the day the JCPOA is implemented, replacing it with the implementation of the JCPOA under Resolution 2231. Najafi predicted that this draft resolution will be approved 'without changes' on December 15. On December 7, Russia and Iran announced that Tehran and the 5+1 group had agreed on a draft resolution for presentation at the IAEA Board meeting. Following the IAEA Director General's report on the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program, expert meetings between Iran and the 5+1 group were held in Vienna to discuss the proposed resolution text. Yukiya Amano, the IAEA Director General, reported that Iran had attempted to develop a nuclear explosive device at least until the end of 2003, but these activities did not go beyond feasibility studies and scientific research. The IAEA also confirmed that it had not found credible evidence of activities related to nuclear weapon development in Iran since 2009. Members of the Iranian negotiating team expressed 'satisfaction' with the report, stating it was closer to being 'white.' However, a few days after the report's publication, Najafi announced Iran's objections to 'some negative points' in the report. Meanwhile, 23 members of parliament called for a 'decisive and clear response' from President Hassan Rouhani to the IAEA's accusations against Iran. Among the signatories were Javad Karimi Qoddousi, Mehrdad Bazrpash, Alireza Zakani, and Ismail Kowsari. In this context, Hossein Shariatmadari, representative of the Supreme Leader in Kayhan newspaper, wrote in an editorial that according to the draft resolution from the 5+1 group, the PMD file for Iran will remain 'open forever.'