Former British Security Minister: Developments in Syria Will Lead to the Fall of the Islamic Republic in the Coming Years

The former British Security Minister, in an interview, stated that Donald Trump's decision to kill Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, demonstrated that the Islamic Republic is a 'paper tiger,' which ultimately led to a chain of events resulting in the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Tom Tugendhat also considers Syria a broader turning point that will lead to the fall of the Islamic Republic in the coming years. He, who previously served on the UK Foreign Affairs Committee and now represents the Conservative Party in the House of Commons, told 'Conflicted': 'Qassem Soleimani was a much more fundamental and key figure than was thought at the time, and when he was killed in January 2020, he had all the relationships and dealings with regional figures in his mind.' The former British Security Minister added: 'He was replaced, but not in practice, because no one could replace the personal relationships he had built over 20 years.' Qassem Soleimani was killed on January 3, 2020, Baghdad time, along with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the commander of the Popular Mobilization Forces, in a drone strike by the U.S. Air Force and the Central Intelligence Agency, ordered directly by then-President Donald Trump. In retaliation, the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps conducted an operation named 'Martyr Qassem Soleimani' against the Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq on January 8, but due to the U.S. forces being informed of the approximate timing of the attack, no American drones or aircraft were harmed as they were all evacuated by the afternoon of January 7 to avoid damage in the missile attack. Tugendhat also referred to his observation of an internal crisis within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps due to the loss of Syria. He stated: 'Young members of the IRGC say two things; first, that the older IRGC members are corrupt and ineffective, which is why Hezbollah was defeated and Assad fell.' He added: 'They have also heard rumors that Ayatollah [Khamenei] and the government in Tehran want to negotiate with the Americans to find a way out of this situation to survive.' According to Tom Tugendhat, younger members of the IRGC consider negotiating with 'the killers of Qassem Soleimani' unacceptable, which poses a significant challenge for the Islamic Republic and is inconsistent with reality. This former British Security Minister, who opposes the nuclear agreement known as the 'JCPOA' and supports designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization, views Syria as a broader turning point that will lead to the fall of the Islamic Republic in the coming years. He stated that if Syria is managed correctly, it could become the economic hub of the Middle East within a decade. Tugendhat accused the West of lacking a long-term strategy in the Middle East, saying: 'The withdrawal from Afghanistan and Barack Obama's failure to act on his red lines after Assad's use of chemical weapons in 2013 provided an opportunity for Vladimir Putin.' According to Tom Tugendhat, the West has shown 'weakness and promoted instability' at crucial crossroads along this path. He added: 'Putin has no more power than we do, but he has the illusion of it, and that is enough for him to make decisions that have led to this widespread calamity.'