Former Intelligence Minister: Possibility of Repeating 2009 Events by Low-Income Class

In response to the candidacy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mohammad Hossein Safar Harandi, a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, deemed the potential disqualification of the former president as the 'end of his career' and warned of events similar to those of 2009 being 'instigated' by low-income groups. According to the website Entekhab, Safar Harandi stated that Ahmadinejad 'does not expose himself to the Guardian Council and must save himself from this predicament.' The former Minister of Culture in Ahmadinejad's first government emphasized that the disqualification of the former president 'means the end of his career, but if he does not reach this stage, there will be opportunities for change and return in the future.' He noted that Ahmadinejad's close associates have indicated that if their candidates are not approved, the victory of Hassan Rouhani will be certain, and the 'organized votes' of Ahmadinejad's supporters will not go to the conservatives. He also mentioned that Ibrahim Raisi has received 'good reception and the votes of prominent revolutionary figures will support this individual.' Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his executive assistant Hamid Bakai registered for candidacy in the elections on Wednesday, April 23, and Ahmadinejad's candidacy, contrary to the 'explicit recommendation' of the Supreme Leader, has drawn negative reactions from most conservatives. In an interview with the Associated Press, Ahmadinejad emphasized his support for Bakai and explained his candidacy despite the Supreme Leader's recommendation, stating that 'conditions have generally changed.' In his first comments after his unexpected registration, he said that the Supreme Leader's 'recommendation' did not mean 'prohibition,' but his candidacy is only 'to support Hamid Bakai.' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, confirmed on September 27, 2016, that he had told Ahmadinejad that 'it is not advisable' for him to participate in the upcoming elections. Abbasali Kadkhodai, spokesman for the Guardian Council, previously stated in an interview that the Supreme Leader's 'recommendation' to Ahmadinejad could be considered a 'legal order.' However, on Thursday, April 24, Abdolreza Davari, a close associate of Ahmadinejad, tweeted that the deprivation of Ahmadinejad's candidacy based on the 'recommendation' of Ayatollah Khamenei is 'a violation of the constitution.' He also emphasized that such deprivation can only be achieved with a 'government decree.' A 'government decree' in Iranian media and officials' terminology refers to a ruling issued by the Supreme Leader that is 'beyond' the laws. Safar Harandi also discussed the possibility of repeating protests similar to the 2009 presidential election, stating that 're-entering the electoral arena with the mindset of 2009 would bring irreparable damage; therefore, internal and external enemies have tested the atmosphere and it is unlikely they will want to engage in a conspiracy.' Meanwhile, Heydar Moslehi, the Minister of Intelligence in Ahmadinejad's second government, warned that some registrations in the presidential election are 'done for sedition' and are 'calculated.' According to ISNA news agency, he added: 'The enemy has plans for the social base of many candidates who have registered, and using the experience of the 2009 sedition, they want to provoke the lower-middle class this time.' The Supreme Leader and his close associates refer to the protests following the 2009 presidential election as 'sedition.' Some political analysts have previously stated that most of Ahmadinejad's supporters are low-income individuals, which is why Bakai has promised to increase subsidies to 250,000 tomans in three phases. In response to the statements of the spokesman for the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the spokesman for the Iranian judiciary, stated on Sunday that Bakai's case is open, he has not been apologized to, and his innocence or guilt has not yet been proven. Meanwhile, Ali Asghar Hosseini, Bakai's lawyer, pointed out that his client was released on bail and stated that 'no charge' against him has been 'proven.' He also considered Ejei's statements to be in contradiction with Article 37 of the Constitution regarding the principle of presumption of innocence, adding that 'in all legal systems worldwide, this principle is recognized as self-evident and fundamental, that all individuals are presumed innocent unless their crime is proven in a competent court.' Hamid Bakai, known as one of Ahmadinejad's closest associates, was arrested in June 2015 on charges of 'embezzlement' and was released in December of that year. Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei also stated on Sunday that Ahmadinejad's case has not yet resulted in a verdict, and until a 'date is set for it,' it cannot be said when the court will convene. Ahmadinejad's case has been open in the Tehran Criminal Court for several years, and the newspaper 'Shargh' previously reported on the existence of '23 complaints against Ahmadinejad in the judiciary,' including complaints from the parliament.