Four Difficult Scenarios for the Next Prime Minister of France

Despite the relative but unexpected victory of the leftist coalition in the French parliamentary elections, Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, opposed Gabriel Attal's resignation from the position of Prime Minister. On Monday, Macron told the Prime Minister at the Élysée Palace to continue managing current affairs 'for now' and for the 'stability' of France. However, this situation will be temporary, and discussions for determining the next Prime Minister continue among the two leftist coalitions and the coalition supporting the President. The far-right party, which was expected to win the parliamentary elections, has effectively been sidelined from discussions about selecting a Prime Minister. What possibilities are there for the next Prime Minister of France? 1. Selected from the leftist coalition The results of the French parliamentary elections not only showcased the far-right party's failure in its attempt to seize executive power but also highlighted the power of leftist parties, which have struggled to unite in recent years. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the 'France Unbowed' party, one of the four parties forming the 'New Popular Front' coalition, stated immediately after the results were announced, 'Our people have clearly rejected the worst solution.' Mélenchon added, 'The National Rally is far from the absolute majority that commentators predicted for it almost a week ago. The situation is now completely the opposite.' He emphasized that the New Popular Front must form a government and urged Macron to fulfill his 'duty' as President and ask the leftist coalition to propose their Prime Minister candidate. Although Mélenchon has significant influence among leftist voters, he is not universally accepted by all leftist party leaders, especially the Socialists. Marine Tondelier, the leader of the French Greens, which is part of the 'New Popular Front' coalition, also told the media on Monday, 'It is up to us to find solutions based on constitutional logic. Emmanuel Macron must officially ask the New Popular Front to introduce a Prime Minister to him today.' She added, 'Will Macron do this? He will not? Since the current President has always been full of surprises, we will see what happens, but the basis is constitutional logic.' However, the main issue is that within the leftist coalition itself, there is still no consensus on the proposed Prime Minister of this coalition. Although Mélenchon has significant influence among leftist voters, he is not particularly accepted by the leaders of leftist parties, especially the French Socialist Party. Some political commentators mention Ms. Tondelier as someone who could play a mediating role among these four leftist parties and is capable of becoming the next Prime Minister. 2. Gabriel Attal remains Prime Minister Another surprise of this election was the coalition supporting Emmanuel Macron surpassing the far-right party, which resulted from many leftist votes going to this coalition. However, the public expectation is that the coalition will not form a government alone as it did in the past. On the other hand, Macron's policies have serious disagreements with the policies of the leftist coalition, and he is not particularly inclined to cooperate with a leftist Prime Minister. After the 2022 parliamentary elections, despite losing many seats in Parliament and his supporting coalition declining from an absolute majority to a relative majority, he retained his Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, in her position. Gabriel Attal's brief speech after the election results Stephen Séjourné, the Secretary-General of Macron's supporting party, said on Sunday evening, 'This parliamentary composition is unprecedented. The situation is much more serious than to not take our collective responsibility. To address the everyday problems of the French: purchasing power, security, employment, environment.' He added, 'I say right here that we will continue to defend our values in Parliament and will set the preconditions for any discussion considering the majority of projects.' Attal had previously stated that if Macron's coalition could not gain a majority in Parliament and no absolute majority is formed, he is ready to remain in his position 'as long as duty requires.' He specifically referred to the upcoming Olympic Games, which are set to open in Paris in a few days. 3. The Prime Minister could be from a union of the two leftist coalitions and Macron's supporters The third hypothesis is the formation of a larger union including the leftist coalition and the coalition of Macron's supporters so that the Prime Minister is selected from this larger union. During the election campaign, this hypothesis was rejected by some leaders of the leftist 'France Unbowed' party, and Mélenchon himself indicated in his statements on Sunday evening that he is not willing to unite with Macron. Aside from some foreign policy differences, the most important disagreements between the leftist parties and Macron's supporting parties are over economic issues. Macron and some of his ministers have repeatedly referred to the 'France Unbowed' party as a 'far-left' party; meanwhile, the French Constitutional Council does not use such terminology regarding this party. Tondelier is mentioned as someone who could play a mediating role among the four leftist parties and is capable of becoming the next Prime Minister. Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of Economy in Macron's government, severely criticized the leftist coalition's economic programs before the second round of parliamentary elections. However, some in the left camp, especially in the Socialist Party, support such an idea. Olivier Faure, the First Secretary of the Socialist Party, has closed the door on this option, saying he opposes a 'coalition of contradictions,' but Raphaël Glucksmann, a prominent figure in the Socialist Party, took a different stance, stating, 'We must behave like adults, talk, discuss, and engage in dialogue.' Jean Garrig, a political analyst, believes that in this situation, parties should even seek compromise, convergence, and attempt to think differently about politics, even from the far-right political bloc. In the event of such a union, finding an agreed-upon Prime Minister would still be difficult. What plans do the left have for France? Some have mentioned François Hollande, the former President, as a desirable option in this case, who also has a history of cooperation with Macron, but Hollande has announced that he will not run for the Prime Minister position. 4. A non-political technocratic Prime Minister The final hypothesis is the establishment of a technocratic government with a completely non-political Prime Minister. This experience was previously attempted in Italy between 2021 and 2022 with Mario Draghi. However, even in such a case, due to the current relative majority of Parliament being held by the left, such a figure would need to be able to convince the left parties for their programs. Raphaël Glucksmann from the Socialist Party has stated that when the majority of Parliament is not held by a party, 'we must behave like adults.' Glucksmann previously introduced Laurent Berger, the head of a moderate union, for such a case, but Mr. Berger has stated that he has decided to withdraw from public life. Some had previously warned about the ungovernability of France in the absence of an absolute majority in Parliament; although, according to the French Constitution, significant power still remains in the hands of the President. In the coming days, it will be interesting to see how Emmanuel Macron, who dissolved the previous Parliament at his own request, will manage the new political reality in France.