France's Concern Over Escalating Tensions in the Middle East if IRGC is Designated as a Terrorist Organization

The potential decision by the United States to designate Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization has raised concerns in France regarding the possibility of increased tensions in the region. The U.S. government is expected to announce its strategy regarding Iran's 'bad behavior' in the coming days, including the consideration of soon placing the IRGC on the list of terrorist organizations. This possibility has already provoked a strong reaction from Iran, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stating on Monday, October 9, that if such an action occurs, the U.S. must accept the consequences of a 'hard, decisive, and crushing' response from Iran. These remarks came a day after Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC, threatened that if new sanctions laws are implemented, 'the U.S. must relocate its regional bases within a radius of two thousand kilometers of Iran's missile range.' However, on Monday, a spokesperson for the French Foreign Ministry emphasized that 'from the perspective of instability in the region, France is sensitive to any action that leads to the exacerbation of ongoing crises.' He added that 'in light of this, regional governments must play a special role and show a sense of responsibility and restraint.' Currently, many commanders and subunits of the IRGC are targeted by U.S. sanctions due to human rights violations and the missile activities of the Islamic Republic of Iran, but the entire force has not yet been placed on the terrorist organizations sanctions list. The announcement of the U.S. strategy to contain Iran in the region comes at a time when General Herbert McMaster, the U.S. National Security Advisor, previously emphasized that Donald Trump views the entire situation in Iran in relation to the nuclear agreement, not just the country's nuclear program. He noted that 'this broader context includes how we protect American citizens and U.S. interests and how we safeguard our allies and partners against the wide-ranging destabilizing behavior of Iran.' The Trump administration has so far confirmed Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement twice, but if it does not confirm Iran's compliance this time as expected, it may pave the way for the U.S. to exit the nuclear agreement. This issue has raised concerns among other parties to the Iran nuclear agreement, including Russia, which has warned about the negative consequences of a U.S. exit from the JCPOA, and China, which has expressed hope for the preservation of this agreement. Concerns regarding the new U.S. approach to the JCPOA are not limited to these two countries, as Germany also expressed worries on Monday for the second consecutive day regarding a potential U.S. exit from the JCPOA, with its foreign minister stating that 'we do not want to see any harm to this agreement.' Sigmar Gabriel mentioned that given the situation in North Korea, our main concern is that if the only existing agreement in this regard is called into question, the dictatorial regime of North Korea is unlikely to be prepared to agree to a similar deal to abandon nuclear weapons development. Regarding North Korea, the U.S. Secretary of State had previously stated that they were examining the country's willingness to negotiate to resolve the crisis, but since then, Donald Trump has emphasized twice that negotiating with North Korean leaders is futile. In his latest response on this matter, Trump criticized the approach of previous U.S. administrations in negotiating with North Korea, stating that 'only one thing is effective' regarding this country, but he did not provide further explanation. He had previously threatened that military options are not a priority in addressing the North Korean crisis, but if such an option is taken, the result would be devastating.