Freedom Movement Warns of 'Collapse Danger' in Iran

The Freedom Movement of Iran issued a statement on the occasion of the Persian New Year, warning of what it termed a 'political-social collapse' in Iran. The statement, signed by Mohammad Tosuli, Secretary-General of the Freedom Movement of Iran, discusses 'organized violence in the context of a crisis-ridden society and the inefficacy of governance.' It references events from 2017, including the December protests, the demonstrations of financial victims, clashes with Gonabadi dervishes, conflicts over water distribution in Isfahan, and non-peaceful confrontations with women's rights gatherings on March 8. It predicts that if these protests recur this year, widespread 'violence' is likely. The Freedom Movement added that the acknowledgment of the 'inefficacy' crisis by governing institutions, alongside 'five major structural crises in the country's management and the increasing gap between the state and the nation, indicates the emergence of terrifying storms in the broader societal relations.' The statement argues that when a society 'loses hope for reform and reaches a breaking point... naturally, the necessary motivations for resorting to violence arise,' and 'the society will become a battleground for those who think only of revenge.' The political party further noted that various and complex plans, both domestically—even within government institutions—and regionally, by extremist right-wingers in Israel and Saudi Arabia, coordinated with the U.S. government, aim to create organized violence in Iran. According to the Freedom Movement, only by 'focusing on political development and improving efficiency indicators' can one prevent 'the emergence and expansion of widespread security crises and organized violence in the country.' The statement warns that 'violence has emerged as a serious solution in society for the first time,' and alerts to the 'rise of waves of violence' in the country. It emphasizes that 'focusing on economic reforms while neglecting or delaying political reforms' poses a threat to Iran. The Freedom Movement added that although the widespread protests in December 2017 'demonstrated the readiness of Iranian society to form and expand the foundations of widespread violence,' 'opportunities have not yet been lost.' The statement concludes that the consequences of violence threaten 'not only the political system but also the territorial integrity and social cohesion of Iran' and that 'if it occurs and expands, political and social collapse can be anticipated.' The widespread protests in December 2017, which occurred in over a hundred cities in Iran, initially began with the slogan 'no to high prices' in Mashhad and quickly spread to other areas. These protests, which according to judicial and law enforcement officials left at least 25 dead in the streets, called into question the performance of all governing institutions, particularly targeting Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, and Hassan Rouhani, the President. There were also slogans in support of the Pahlavi dynasty and regret over the 1979 revolution. Regarding the likelihood of these protests recurring, which became a turning point in 2017, not only have many economic and social experts issued serious warnings, but political figures have also explicitly spoken about the possibility of their occurrence. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, confirmed the significance of these events, stating in the usual manner of Iranian military officials that 'one of the instructive events of last year was the enemy's planning to ride the wave of people's protests against economic and livelihood problems.'