From Indifference and Sanctions to Fear and Doubt; What is Happening in Society Regarding the Elections?

In a week, presidential elections are set to take place in Iran, but the atmosphere in society and the streets has not yet heated up. On social media, especially among media activists, the electoral landscape appears clear and polarized, but on the ground, there is still a fluctuation between the certainty of 'not voting' and the hesitation of 'voting'. Field studies show that the positions of some people regarding participation in the elections lean more towards a certainty of not voting, and they do not consider the atmosphere to be a typical electoral environment as in previous periods. What follows is a report based on a conversation with several citizens inside the country from various backgrounds. The reactions of the Iranian people, depending on the conditions they have experienced over the years, have shown the results in subsequent elections. After the 2017 elections, where 73% participated, the suppression of protests in 2017 and 2019 drew a stark line between the government and the people. When, amid tear gas and the special forces, a group of students shouted 'Reformist, Principlist, the story is over', this was reflected in the two parliamentary elections of 2019 and the presidential election of 2021. In the 2021 presidential election, public participation saw a significant drop, reaching about 49% for the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic; notably, at least 3.7 million of this 49% cast invalid or blank votes, making it the second-highest after the elected president. In the elections on July 8, 2024, Masoud Pezeshkian is supported by reformists, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Mostafa Pourmohammadi are recognized as moderate principlists, while Saeed Jalili, Alireza Zakani, and Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi are known as hardline principlists. With the presidency of each candidate, what changes will filtering bring? The red line called 'legitimizing the regime' was drawn in the nationwide protests of 'Women, Life, Freedom' in the fall of 2022, which began with the death of Mahsa Jina Amini. The issue was not just the division between the people and the government, but also the divisions within society: either 'with us' or 'against us'. Ms. Sima, a civil engineer, does not think at all about what she calls the 'election game' and says: 'My red line is anything that legitimizes this regime. What was the point of all those deaths, all those eyes lost, just to vote?' Ms. Fawziyeh, a book designer who, like Sima, prefers not to disclose her name, says that in a survey she conducted among her family, apart from three loyalists to the regime, no one is going to vote: 'Unfortunately, those two also consider the recent events to be the work and conspiracy of the enemy and now want to help the regime. Apart from them, those who would vote under any circumstances are no longer willing to have their vote recorded as legitimizing the regime.' The Ferdowsi market is calm! Candidate advertisements in cities are not like previous elections at least until today. Candidates, despite their relative prior readiness, are not making much noise. Posters are not seen as densely as in previous election periods. It is usually said that the political fever is in the Ferdowsi market. Previously, in 2013, with the registration of Saeed Jalili, the price of the dollar rose, and with the registration of Hashemi Rafsanjani, it decreased, but now neither the candidates nor the debates are affecting prices. Mehdi (a pseudonym), one of the currency traders in Ferdowsi Square, states that he has no intention of supporting or voting for any candidate. He tells Radio Farda: 'There is not much difference between them. Qalibaf is elected, and it does not lead to the game of dollar and currency fluctuations. The economic situation is bad, and people are looking for improvement, but they know that nothing will be fixed by these people.' Ms. Elham, a journalist residing in Tehran, tells Radio Farda: 'Apart from social media and journalists, elections are not important or valuable to anyone. The press follows the news out of obligation; otherwise, none of these candidates are different from each other, and there is no talk of elections in the market or among the general public.' Mr. Mohsen, a university professor who has always followed election news, had theories and strategies about it and previously voted and worked to get his candidate elected, tells Radio Farda: 'I don't even follow the news anymore. Unlike other elections, there is no talk of elections in classes or among colleagues. To me, it feels very quiet.' The third debate of the elections; candidates defend compulsory hijab, continued cold reactions in cyberspace. A 180-degree turn. In the past 45 years, Iran has not had a president who has directly come from military sectors to the presidency. Even in 2005, when Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf ran and had credibility as the commander of the police force within the military and even in some parts of society, he had no chance in the votes cast, and Ahmadinejad ultimately reached the presidency. There is a street theory among the people that fear of a military figure gaining power in Iran could compel a boycott to vote. Mr. Ramtin, who introduces himself this way, is a businessman and exporter. He tells Radio Farda: 'The last time I voted was in 2005, and I swore to myself that I would never vote again. But this time is different. Out of fear of Jalili and Qalibaf, I want to vote for Pezeshkian.' Ms. Mina, a secretary at a law office, shares the same view; a veiled woman who plans to vote for Pezeshkian out of fear of Jalili and Qalibaf. Ms. Mina tells Radio Farda: 'These people are supporters of war. My brother was torn apart in the war; I can't bear to send my son to war and the front.' The situation is somewhat different for others. Ms. Mahshid (a pseudonym) works in a company under a ministry and, due to her type of employment, is required to participate in annual screenings. In the years when elections have been held, the screening tests and interviews are conducted with her identification card, and her voting page and stamps are monitored. Therefore, she has cast blank votes in the 2019, 2021, and 2024 elections just to have her identification stamped; her plan for the next election was the same, but now she says: 'The situation is worse than not participating. Jalili is truly a terrifying figure, and Qalibaf is even worse than him.' For some like Mr. Morteza (a pseudonym), this fear no longer holds significance. He tells Radio Farda: 'The economic and social situation is very bad; the important thing is that none of these people have the ability to improve the situation. The choice has already been made; it just hasn't been announced yet.' Narges Mohammadi: I will not participate in the illegal elections of a repressive and illegitimate government. Khamenei's warning to candidates: Making enemy-friendly statements is not permissible. The 2024 elections; a debate that could not heat up the election atmosphere. When will the Iranian election atmosphere heat up? The main focus of the candidates is on Tehran and large cities, and generally, these cities are monitored, but the statistics of small cities sometimes disrupt the balance. Mr. Jamal (a pseudonym) was once a bank employee in Kashan and is now retired. The last time he voted was in 2009, and he swore that he would vote again when the dollar price returned to its rate that year. He tells Radio Farda: 'This means voting, without voting. Until that year, I thought they were playing us; later, I realized we are puppets in their hands, taken to the polls each time with some excuse. Once they scare us with becoming like Syria, another time with Jalili and Qalibaf or anyone else.' Ms. Mehri, a nurse in Urmia, says her own and her husband's and several family members' positions are already clear: 'Jalili really has a different situation; we should not look at his two previous losses; he is now a heavy weight.' Interestingly, Mr. Mohammad Ali in Tehran says the same about Qalibaf, and Mr. Mithaq from Ramsar says the same about Pezeshkian. However, the common point among all three is that there is still no news, and 'we do not see an oven that is supposed to be hot. The number of people talking about the elections is also limited.' Mr. Mohammad in Isfahan has the same description for the election situation, only he does not mention anyone's name. Ms. Mojdeh in Ahvaz complains about the candidates' views on women, describing them all as weak, and tells Radio Farda: 'There are futile attempts to attract votes in the city, but the rhetoric is all old and worn out. The slogans have no meaning. There is no clarity in the words and positions of any of them, and most importantly, their view of women, her status, and her conditions is completely patriarchal. This situation can even be seen in the female advisors of the candidates.' Meanwhile, some who still believe in the ballot box and are also protesting against the current situation are waiting for the final days of the campaign. Mr. Mansour, who introduces himself to Radio Farda with this name, is continuously trying to analyze and interpret the election situation on social media. He is waiting for the election atmosphere to heat up at the end of the debates and tells Radio Farda: 'It seems that people still believe that the regime will choose its own person again; therefore, the electoral atmosphere has not heated up yet. Perhaps the situation will improve in the coming days.' This report was prepared on the last day of Khordad. Dena Mandegar is a pseudonym for a social journalist collaborating with Radio Farda.