From Other Media; The Death of Raisi and the Challenges Facing the Islamic Republic

The death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has drawn global attention to Iran and the future power dynamics within the Islamic Republic, prompting various media outlets worldwide to analyze the implications. Several key themes have emerged, including the next president, the succession of Ali Khamenei, Raisi's legacy, and the challenges ahead for the Islamic Republic. This report aims to provide an overview of the most prominent global perspectives on this incident. The President's Death; Who is the Next Executive? Various media outlets have extensively discussed this topic in their analyses. The Economist, in a detailed article, referenced the Islamic Republic's constitution, which states that new elections must be held within a maximum of 50 days. It noted the 2021 presidential elections, where the Guardian Council disqualified many main candidates, allowing Raisi to win in a 'fraudulent election.' The Economist pointed out that the regime lacks popularity among Iranians and suggested that the Islamic Republic might suppress any public protests regarding the new elections. Furthermore, it highlighted the internal power struggle in Iran, noting that while it is difficult to predict who the next president will be, the Revolutionary Guards seem to be gaining more political power. The publication also emphasized that within the framework of the Islamic Republic, the president has limited authority, with the leader holding ultimate power. Bloomberg also reported on the political situation in Iran, mentioning the delegation of powers to Mohammad Mokhber, who will assume executive responsibilities until the elections; he has a background in the Revolutionary Guards and has held positions in the Executive Headquarters of Imam's Command, the Foundation of the Oppressed, and the Khuzestan governorate. The report referenced Khamenei's statements before Raisi's official death, where he claimed that 'there will be no disruption in the country's administration.' In this context, Vali Nasr, a former advisor to Barack Obama and an international relations professor, tweeted that it would be challenging for right-wing politicians to find a readily available candidate ahead of elections in less than two months. He also predicted that this situation might lead to the return of previously sidelined conservatives to the political scene. The Succession Challenge of Khamenei In various analyses, the issue of Khamenei's succession has garnered much more attention than the next president, with media outlets worldwide recognizing the leadership's position in the Islamic Republic, which holds far greater authority than the head of the executive branch. The Economist noted that when Raisi won the presidential election three years ago, many believed he was closer to the leadership position, but contrary to expectations, his presidency ended with his death. The publication added that Khamenei, the 'elderly and ill leader' of the Islamic Republic, has now sidelined Raisi, one of the main candidates for succession, increasing the chances for Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's second son. However, The Economist emphasized that Mojtaba's ascension would evoke memories of hereditary rule, which Iranians last overthrew in 1979. The author also noted that Mojtaba's close relationship with the Revolutionary Guards could benefit him while simultaneously enhancing the institution's role and share in the Islamic Republic's decision-making processes. The Economist predicted that this trend could lead Iran from a hybrid religious-military regime to a more militarized political system. The New York Times also concluded that Raisi's death paves the way for Mojtaba's succession. Bloomberg further elaborated on the implications of Raisi's death on future leadership dynamics within the Islamic Republic, stating, 'In Iran's complex and opaque political structure, there is virtually no official or public venue where questions about Khamenei's replacement can be openly discussed, but analysts and academic figures close to Iran's political system have long referred to Raisi and Mojtaba Khamenei as the main contenders.' Bloomberg continued, 'Raisi's death means Mojtaba now has a clearer path to leadership, but his task will not be easy, as Mojtaba's popularity has never been tested, and he has never held a government position.' The publication concluded that a leader seeking legitimacy must at least have the genuine support of the masses who back the Islamic Republic. Raisi's Legacy Most analysts have portrayed Raisi as a character lacking charisma, obedient, and not particularly popular among the Iranian public. The New York Times extensively examined this issue, highlighting two significant points: the nationwide protests led by women and girls that were violently suppressed by Iranian security forces, and the intensifying tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict, as key highlights of Raisi's presidency. The report referenced Raisi's leadership at Astan Quds Razavi, a wealthy religious foundation, and his role as head of the judiciary. The New York Times noted that during his tenure, he oversaw some of the most brutal crackdowns on dissent in the country, particularly during the November 2019 protests in response to rising fuel prices, which reportedly resulted in at least 500 deaths. The newspaper also mentioned the arrests, summons, and harassment of journalists, lawyers, and dual citizens during Raisi's time in the judiciary. The Economist, however, took a step further back, scrutinizing Raisi's responsibility during the early years of the revolution, where he oversaw or directly issued death sentences for many government opponents. The publication concluded that this is why fewer Iranians will mourn him, as they will remember him as the 'execution judge' who played a role in sending thousands of prisoners to the gallows in 1988. The author also described Raisi's economic performance as disastrous, citing a 55% decline in the value of the rial within less than three years of his presidency as evidence. The New York Times also addressed Raisi's foreign policy, interpreting Iran's closer ties with Beijing and Moscow as part of the Islamic Republic's 'Look to the East' policy during Raisi's administration. The newspaper emphasized the widespread repression of women during Raisi's rule and during the nationwide protests, asserting that the then-president supported these actions. It also noted the extensive economic problems in Iran, stating, 'His legacy is likely to be contentious; during his tenure, the country experienced a severe economic recession stemming from international sanctions and high unemployment.' Raisi, from the first day of his rise to power until the end, advocated for managing the country without regard to sanctions and emphasized economic resistance; slogans that economic statistics suggest may have only served to reassure the regime's domestic supporters. Challenges Facing the Islamic Republic Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at Chatham House in London, stated in an interview with CNN that although Raisi lacked a charismatic personality, his death complicates the regime's already existing legitimacy crisis, as it must hold another election within 50 days, just weeks after the second round of parliamentary elections saw the lowest public participation. The intensifying external tensions Iran faces in the region, particularly with Israel, are further challenges that the Islamic Republic will grapple with in the current unstable conditions. The New York Times noted that the Islamic Republic will confront the issue of Israel, which is one of the challenges facing Iran's leaders. The Guardian also analyzed Raisi's death, stating that this event adds to the sense of a country undergoing political transition. The newspaper further noted that the accumulated disruptions in Iran, following recent developments, the repression of women and girls, increasing discontent, the elimination of opponents and reformists, and elections with minimal public participation, present fundamental challenges. The Guardian elaborated, 'The widespread uncertainties surrounding Iran's relations with the West over its nuclear program, the dire economic situation, and the tense interactions with other Middle Eastern countries, particularly regarding Israel, pose very serious challenges for Iran.' The Guardian further views the issue of Iran and Israel as a perpetual challenge for any president in Tehran. Additionally, the author believes that the new president will need to make significant decisions regarding Iran's nuclear program, and whoever replaces Raisi as head of the executive branch will face immediate challenges from hardliners demanding a tougher stance towards the West and closer ties with China and Russia.