G7 Officials Consider a Likely Agreement on Syria

Reuters reports, citing officials familiar with the negotiations among the G7 nations, that the leaders of these countries see a potential opportunity for a political agreement regarding Syria that could ultimately lead to Bashar al-Assad's resignation and the formation of a coalition government. Sources familiar with the G7 negotiations have pointed to the necessity of Russia's involvement for any potential agreement on Syria's future, while noting that no unexpected progress has yet occurred. Western countries have found themselves in extensive disagreements with Moscow over the Ukraine crisis, described as unprecedented since the Cold War, which has also been reflected in the statements and declarations of G7 leaders. Nevertheless, Reuters quotes officials stating that Bashar al-Assad's government has increasingly found itself in a defensive position due to recent retreats by the Syrian army. In recent weeks, the central government in Damascus has ceded control of more areas of Syrian territory, particularly to extremist groups like the self-proclaimed Islamic State or the 'al-Nusra Front.' In mid-May, a report citing a 'Syrian security source' indicated that nearly seven thousand Iranian and Iraqi military forces have been deployed in Syria to support Damascus and other key areas. Furthermore, the report noted that Syria's military strategy has shifted to preserving sensitive and strategic areas. A news source told Reuters on June 7 that 'a situation has arisen for reaching a political agreement in Syria. We need Russia for that.' This official added that the only way for a political transition in Syria is the departure of Assad from the country. Another news source, without providing details, mentioned that there is a feeling that Syria is likely on the brink of change. These statements did not reference the timing or manner of this political transition, particularly as it remains unclear who or what groups would replace Bashar al-Assad's government. Meanwhile, Reuters reports that sources close to Damascus have pointed to ongoing battles ahead and have discussed broader issues, including events in Iraq and the outcomes of nuclear negotiations between Iran and six world powers. Tehran, considered one of Bashar al-Assad's most important supporters, is also assessed as a major influencing factor on the conditions. Alongside this, allied groups with Tehran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, are also supporting Damascus. Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of this group, stated on May 15 that in the week prior, Hezbollah forces and Assad supporters managed to drive Sunni armed groups out of a wide area around the Syrian-Lebanese border. Reports indicate that the Syrian army and Damascus allies have lost a significant portion of their controlled areas over the past two months. In this context, a senior Israeli commander stated: 'The Syrian army practically no longer exists.' Zarif stated: 'Iran's policy in support of the Syrian government is unchangeable.' Government forces' attacks in Syria have left at least 49 dead.