Ghalibaf's Population Statistics for Future Tehran Are Very Strange

According to reports from news media in Iran, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, the mayor of Tehran, has predicted that the population of Tehran will reach 22 million by the year 1400 (2021). Mr. Ghalibaf has warned that serious thought and planning must be done for this urban expansion. Speaking at the first session of the 'Supreme Council for Urban Development Oversight in Tehran,' he added that Tehran will face new waves of challenges, including aging and social issues. Radio Farda interviewed Rayhaneh Mozaffarian, a demographer residing in Iran, initially asking about the accuracy of the statistics provided by the mayor of Tehran. Mozaffarian stated that the figures reported by the Civil Registration Organization indicate that the population growth rate can be calculated based on the number of births each year. According to formulas, the population growth rate for Tehran is considered to be 3.33, meaning approximately 112,000 children are born in Tehran each year. If this figure of 112,000 is multiplied by seven—since there are seven years remaining until the year 1400—there will still not be such an increase in population. It should also be noted that according to the census of population and housing, from 2006 to 2011, the population of Tehran decreased by one million. The statistics released by this organization also indicate that the average population growth rate for Tehran province between 2006 and 2011 was 1.44 percent annually. Now, the figure that Mr. Ghalibaf has announced in his report is very strange, and I feel that he may have considered this figure based on the entire province. Mozaffarian continued that in 2011, the population of Tehran was reported to be 8.3 million, with about four million of the remaining population belonging to the suburbs of Tehran. Even if we add this figure—the population of the suburbs—it would be close to 12 million. Again, it is an impossible figure that the population of Tehran, which is currently eight million, would suddenly triple in seven years. Even if we consider the 12 million population of Tehran province and say that Mr. Ghalibaf made a mistake, it still seems impossible for the total population of Tehran to double in seven years. Is it possible that he considered the figure of 22 million based on the level of migration to Tehran? Statistics from the five years between 2006 and 2011 show that the population of Tehran is decreasing by one million. This means there may even be hope that people are leaving Tehran. One million may not be a significant figure in the eight million currently residing in Tehran. However, according to statistics from 2006, it shows that we had a one million decrease in population in Tehran, and the birth rate is not high enough to say that the intensity or trend is so fast that we would have a sudden population increase. Mozaffarian was asked what she thinks could be the reason for Mr. Ghalibaf announcing such figures. She suggested that he may feel concern about such a large figure of 22 million for the city of Tehran, and questioned why he does not think about issues such as developing personal resources. If they are to predict such a problem, how will housing, education, and employment for 22 million people be provided for just one city in Iran, which could have a population the size of a country? I suspect that Mr. Ghalibaf may have miscalculated the figures for the city of Tehran or the province of Tehran. Even regarding the population growth rate, according to what the Civil Registration Organization itself states, the highest population growth rate for Tehran province is attributed to one of its counties called Robat Karim, which is estimated to have an annual average population growth rate of 5.23 percent in Tehran province. This means that even Tehran itself is not among the cities with the highest population growth rates in Tehran province.