Greenland Elections: Which Path Will the Island Choose? Independence, Denmark, or the USA

Under normal circumstances, the elections for the 31-member parliament of Greenland do not attract much attention, and this vast island with a population of only 60,000 rarely makes headlines. However, everything changed in January 2025 when Donald Trump, the new President of the United States, expressed his interest in controlling this strategic and resource-rich region. This caused a significant shock throughout Europe, especially in Denmark, to which Greenland belongs. While Copenhagen determines Greenland's foreign and monetary policies, most internal affairs are managed by the Greenlanders themselves. Now, for this reason, all eyes are on the elections scheduled for Tuesday, March 21, which Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen decided to hold following Trump's remarks. The main question overshadowing the elections is: Americanization, remaining under Danish sovereignty, or moving towards independence? However, most people in Greenland are not interested in joining the USA, and none of the five parliamentary parties support this idea. Frederiksen and Mette Frederiksen, the Prime Minister of Denmark, have repeatedly stated that Greenland, which is an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, is not for sale, and only the Greenlanders should decide its future. Interestingly, the Greenland parliament recently passed a law banning anonymous and foreign financial contributions during elections. The United States first expressed interest in this island in the 19th century. Geographically, Greenland is closer to North America than Europe, and its security is largely tied to the US airbase in the northern part of the island. Meanwhile, global powers are paying significant attention to the Arctic. China and Russia are active in the region, both due to its rare and valuable resources and because of global warming, which is melting sea ice and opening new trade routes. Even if Greenland does not become American anytime soon, a free trade agreement or economic cooperation with Washington may develop in the future. However, Greenlanders are inherently conservative. While some see it as a business opportunity, many residents believe they should preserve their land. Currently, only two mines are active in Greenland, and in the 2021 elections, the main issue was limiting oil and gas extraction and banning uranium mining, which received widespread public support. In this context, Denmark also plays an important role. Three of the five main parties in Greenland, including the leftist 'People's Society' led by Prime Minister Frederiksen, advocate for independence. This party won the last election and is likely to receive the most votes again this time. Its current coalition partner, the Social Democratic 'Progress' party, also supports independence and expects to come in second. On the other hand, the Liberal 'Democrats' party, which supports remaining in the Danish Union, has performed well in recent polls and may complicate the formation of the next government. Poll results indicate that most people in Greenland support independence, but at the same time, they do not want their living standards to decline. Greenland still has a significant dependency on Denmark. Since 1814, this island has been loyal to the Danish crown, with 50% of its exports going to Denmark and 60% of its imports coming from there. Half of the population works in the public sector, which is largely funded by the Danish government. In this context, last month, Denmark announced it would allocate two billion euros (2.16 billion dollars) to strengthen its defense capabilities in the Arctic. In Greenland, a commission is examining how a possible separation from Denmark could occur. However, this process has three essential stages: 1. Agreement with Copenhagen on the method of separation 2. Holding an independence referendum across Greenland 3. Final approval of this decision in the Danish parliament. Independence-supporting parties hope that this referendum will take place in the next four years, but given the uncertain conditions, it is unlikely to happen in 2025.