Has Qatar's Mediation in Resolving the Middle East Crisis Weakened?

The recent visit of Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, to Qatar has once again drawn attention to Doha's role in reducing tensions in the region. Over the past year, Qatar, alongside the United States and Egypt, has been one of the international mediators in resolving the Gaza war crisis. However, as this war approaches its first anniversary, the question arises whether Doha still has influence over the parties involved in resolving the crisis. The extremist group Hamas is classified as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, while the U.S. also considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization. However, the EU has placed its military wing on the blacklist but does not label its political wing as terrorist. What does Qatar say? Qatari officials, as in the past twelve months, maintain relations with the extremist group Hamas, the Islamic Republic, Israel, Arab countries, and the United States, stating that they will continue efforts to resolve the Gaza crisis, which has become one of the most dangerous crises in the Middle East in recent decades. Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, called for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza war in his recent speech at the United Nations General Assembly and emphasized Doha's commitment to mediation in this regard. Qatar states that it is reviewing its role as a mediator in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations. The Emir of Qatar described such mediation as a strategic policy of his country. On October 3, during a meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian in Doha, he said, 'We once again emphasize that the two-state solution and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital is the key to achieving sustainable peace in the region. Any other proposal or solution will inevitably face failure.' However, the rapid developments that have occurred, especially in the last two months, such as the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas's political bureau, the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and the IRGC's missile attack on Israel, raise questions about the impact on the influence of mediators, especially Qatar. Since Doha has hosted Hamas's political office, has the killing of Haniyeh diminished Qatar's role? Habib Hosseini Fard, a political analyst residing in Germany, told Radio Farda that recent developments have fundamentally made negotiations difficult for all mediators and do not necessarily mean a weakening of Qatar's mediation. Representatives from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt met with David Barnea, the head of Israel's intelligence agency (Mossad), in Rome on July 29, hoping to reach an agreement to guarantee a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza. This ceasefire was considered vital to ending the almost daily conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah, but Israel raised new demands, and since then, ceasefire negotiations have reached a deadlock. Furthermore, since then, not only has the intensity of Middle Eastern conflicts not decreased, but new dimensions have also emerged. The war between Israel and Hezbollah has entered a new phase, and with missile launches by the IRGC into Israeli territory, the likelihood of an all-out war between the Islamic Republic and this country has increased. Does Qatar have influence over Hezbollah? The Hezbollah group had previously stated that the condition for halting its missile attacks on northern Israel was the establishment of a ceasefire in Gaza. However, Majid Ansari, a spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, announced last week that negotiations to resolve the crises in Gaza and Lebanon are not directly related. He said, 'I am not aware of a direct relationship between these two, but it is evident that mediation in both cases is significantly intertwined, as the negotiating parties are often the same, but I am currently not aware of direct coordination in this regard in the negotiations.' Qatar Airways has banned communication devices such as radios on flights to Lebanon. Does this statement mean that Qatar does not have the influence it has over Sunni Palestinian parties on the Shia group Hezbollah? Hosseini Fard confirms that Qatar's and even Egypt's ability to act in negotiations to resolve the Lebanese crisis is less than their ability to mediate in the Gaza crisis. However, this analyst emphasizes that due to the stringent policies of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government in both negotiations, the work of mediators in both negotiations is difficult. France, which has good relations with the Lebanese government, had previously tried to prevent Israel from entering Lebanese territory, but Paris's efforts failed. Qatar's strategic importance is heightened by hosting the largest U.S. military facilities in the region, making Doha's role as a Washington partner prominent. However, it seems that Israel, which has taken actions against the Qatari Al Jazeera network over the past year, does not have the same relations with Washington as Doha. Nevertheless, Mr. Hosseini Fard told Radio Farda that what plays a role in the relations between Qatar and Israel is not limited to just these two countries. He considers Qatar's closeness to the U.S. and Doha's extensive diplomacy in the region as external factors that compel Israel to maintain relations with Qatar. Qatar's interest in mediating in the current Middle Eastern conflicts is part of a broader strategy that Doha has pursued for years. Mehran Kamrava, a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Voice of America that Qatar's emergence as a mediator did not happen overnight, and the influence of this small Gulf state throughout the region is not solely related to the influence of the Al Jazeera network. This university professor added that it is Doha's diplomacy that has earned Qatar its reputation as a mediator. However, Mr. Kamrava emphasized that Qatar's main motivation for mediating in the region is not only related to Doha's diplomatic capabilities but also concerns 'Qatar's survival' given the powers surrounding it in the region.