Has the Islamic Republic Accepted the Fall of Bashar al-Assad?

As rebel forces continue to advance in the heart of Syria, the approach of Iranian officials, as the main ally of Bashar al-Assad, indicates uncertainty regarding the current Syrian government. Throughout the Syrian civil war, which began with internal discontent and evolved into a battlefield for various militant groups from Al-Qaeda and ISIS to the Free Syrian Army and later Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, Tehran, alongside Moscow, stood firmly behind Assad. After over 300,000 deaths in the conflict, the Syrian president was able to rest his head in his palace in Damascus. This support continued in the years following, with Iranian military forces having a significant presence in Syria to maintain the connection of the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' from Tehran to the Israeli border. However, immediately following the ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, an onslaught of rebel forces led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham began in the heart of Syria. The U.S. officially designated Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization in 2018; the European Union, the UK, Turkey, and several other countries have also listed this group as terrorist. Since the onset of this crisis, Iranian political and military officials have tried to show unwavering support for Bashar al-Assad. Abbas Araghchi met with the Syrian president during his visit to Syria and emphasized that Tehran stands by the Damascus government as always to act resolutely against 'terrorists.' Mohammad Baqeri, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, also tried to demonstrate Iran's determination to combat the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham invasion in a phone call with the commanders of the armies and defense ministers of Russia, Iraq, and Syria. After that, the Iranian foreign minister stated that if the Syrian government requests military forces, Tehran will consider it. He even traveled to Turkey and then to Baghdad for further consultations, holding various meetings with his regional counterparts. However, the outcome of all these meetings and discussions was the fall of Syrian cities one after another. Unlike previous instances, there were no longer any boasts from senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guards regarding various Syrian groups. News agencies affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards have also only covered limited military news from Syria. Tehran and Moscow once saved Assad from the brink of collapse and restored governance to him, but it seems that a series of developments have led the Islamic Republic and Russia to adopt a different policy. Russia is currently involved in the Ukraine war and no longer has the same leeway to play a role in this crisis as it did during the previous phase of the Syrian civil war. Moreover, the complexities of the situation in the Ukraine conflict mean that Moscow needs Erdogan more than Assad, and given that the Turkish president directly supports the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham rebels, it is expected that Putin would prefer not to get more involved in this conflict. On the other hand, Iranian officials, who have always considered Syria the heart of the so-called 'Axis of Resistance,' no longer have the extensive financial and military resources they once did during the previous phase of the Syrian civil war. Years of accumulated international sanctions, Iran's direct involvement in a conflict with Israel, and internal economic problems have all limited the Iranian government's options for playing a role in Syrian developments. Hezbollah, which has played an undeniable role in keeping Assad in power, not only lacks its previous strength but has also lost its Secretary-General and several senior military commanders, with its weapons and military equipment significantly damaged by Israel. Furthermore, the failures and inefficiencies of the Syrian army, which is fleeing from cities one after another and handing over control to its enemies, make it difficult for any foreign actor to defend this regime in power. This series of events may justify recent news regarding the withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria and the evacuation of this country from Islamic Republic soldiers. Although Iranian officials have predictably denied these reports, the significant silence of Revolutionary Guards commanders regarding what is happening in Syria serves as a noteworthy signal in identifying the Islamic Republic's strategy in Syria. Abbas Araghchi, in an interview on December 7, regarding Bashar al-Assad's fate, stated that he is 'not a prophet and cannot predict the future,' adding, 'Whatever is destined by God will happen.' Additionally, the Islamic Republic of Iran's news network used the term 'armed groups' in its subtitles regarding the advances of rebels in Syria, stating that they have not targeted any Shiites residing in Aleppo. This collection of approaches may indicate a preparation of public opinion for a change in the government's overall perception of groups that were previously referred to as 'Takfiri terrorists.' In such circumstances, the meeting of the foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey, and Russia in Doha could signify the establishment of a new order for the future of Syria. In this meeting, Abbas Araghchi, Sergey Lavrov, and Hakan Fidan represent different players in Syria who have stood on opposing sides since the beginning of the crisis over a decade ago. Representatives from Tehran and Moscow will likely negotiate about post-Assad Syria and how to withdraw foreign forces and weapons with the main supporter of the rebels and the current winner of this crisis, Turkey. The policy of creating proxy groups aimed at establishing deterrence for the Islamic Republic, which has been bolstered over decades with billions of dollars, is now close to collapse, and the chain connecting the so-called 'Axis of Resistance' groups is being severed and destroyed one after another.