Has the War Siren Sounded in Iranian Society?

Recent comments from Israeli officials have strengthened the suspicion that the country will respond to Iran's missile attack on October 1st within the coming days. Given the threats from the Israeli Prime Minister, both experts and citizens believe an attack is imminent, speculating only about the location of the strike. Serious expectations of an attack and the start of war began on October 5th. Following Israel's threats of retaliation, the Islamic Republic of Iran has also announced that a harsher response awaits Israel. Now, Iranians both inside the country and around the world are waiting. Some are joyful, while a large part of society is in anxiety. Since last week, several foreign airlines have suspended flights to Iran, making it difficult to travel abroad from Iran, except for flights to Istanbul. This situation has occurred multiple times over the past few months. Some Iranians say, 'This situation and the lack of access mean war.' What are the potential targets of an Israeli attack on Iran? This report is based on conversations with some citizens inside and outside Iran, and their names are anonymized. The war siren in Iran has not yet sounded in terms of military engagement, but it has begun in the minds of some Iranians. For instance, Ms. Khatereh says she has been experiencing constant anxiety and stress since Iran's attack on Israel, crying for hours every day. She states, 'I know we are just going to hit rock bottom, especially when social capital has been destroyed and the country's economy has long since collapsed.' Shima mentions that her colleagues at work are closely following the news and are awaiting the attack: 'They are counting on Netanyahu's promise that no one will be harmed and that we will only be freed.' However, she emphasizes that all her colleagues are men, but the wives of two of them are extremely anxious and did not allow their children to go to school the day after Iran's attack on Israel, fearing an attack. War is not perceived the same way by everyone; it varies even among different cities and professions. Mr. Abed states, 'War is much more pronounced on social media, but in the streets, people are indifferent, and daily life continues. Perhaps it is out of despair that they do not take the war seriously or think that no homes will be destroyed.' He also emphasizes that gas stations remain very crowded with long lines. While Iran and Israel are threatening each other, the situation for the media and newspapers is different. Some journalists inside the country tell Radio Farda that they are not allowed to write about the occurrence of war or its likelihood and consequences, as the government has labeled it 'fear-mongering.' Nahid says, 'This is not something we are unaware of; it is one of the many prohibitions we face in our work.' Ms. Fataneh states, 'In Tehran, everyone is living normally; restaurants are full of people, and it seems unlikely that Iran will become a war zone. I think both sides are averse to war.' She is among those who do not read the news to have a more comfortable life, preferring to do yoga and meditate rather than discuss anxiety-inducing topics. Mr. Mohammad has chosen a different approach to cope with news of war and attacks; he says, 'I don’t follow any news to avoid stress. I was so indifferent that I only found out about the attack on Israel hours after it happened.' The Israeli 'Octopus Doctrine'; Will Netanyahu attack Iran? Joy and anxiety of war beyond borders. Concerns and joys for those outside the country have a different meaning. They must hear about events in their homeland secondhand, which may not be accurate and could provide only a minimal picture of the events. While they worry about the situation of family, friends, and their city and Iran, some prefer to live in their peaceful world and leave politics and war to the citizens there. Mr. Khosrow in America constantly reviews each news site and reads various analyses, worried about an attack. Mr. Mehran in London is also concerned about his family living in Iran and is constantly searching for the answer to whether Iran will be attacked and where it will strike first. In one social media network, someone tells him that the war will likely start from the south and the ports. Meanwhile, Ms. Mojdeh in Canada rejoices that 'freedom for Iran is near.' She considers military attacks as 'the end of the Islamic Republic' and is confident that if an attack occurs, 'it will be in such a way that ordinary people will not be harmed.' Mina, a journalist in Tehran, says that several of her colleagues share this view and consider the start of war as 'the end of the Islamic Republic,' which will eventually happen. She states, 'It is a frightening situation; of course, we have never had a period of calm. The start of war means more misery for the people of Iran.' According to her, people have been stockpiling food and hygiene supplies more than usual since last week to avoid shortages in case of any incident. Since last week, many countries have advised their citizens to leave Iran and warned against traveling to Iran. Joy or fear and anxiety of the Iranian people regarding the start of war with Israel? Mr. Hadi opposes war under any circumstances. He neither sees it as a solution to end the Islamic Republic nor desires to showcase national power on the global stage. Therefore, he says, 'We minorities hear insults from both sides. There is nowhere to escape. I wish we were citizens of somewhere else and our lives had value.' Ms. Nova is constantly checking the sky to monitor flight statuses and takes photos each time. She started doing this when news emerged that recent Israeli movements indicated an attack would occur on Saturday night or Sunday, October 15th. After that, it was announced that the skies of Russia and Iraq were 'cleared' and there were no flights. Previously, foreign flights to Iran had also been suspended. Nova, in front of the photos she constantly takes of the sky and flights, says, 'This situation is scarier than before and terrifying.' In Khuzestan province, it is hard to find a healthy city. All cities still bear large signs of the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq. From Khorramshahr, which was once renowned for its beauty and thriving trade, to Ahvaz, the provincial capital, all reek of war. Once it was said that rebuilding ports and border cities was not cost-effective because they might be attacked again. Mana states, 'The psychological condition of the people is really bad. With the paralyzed economy, the slightest attack could lead to a major catastrophe for which only the people will pay the price. Fear in this region, due to its sensitivities, is certainly greater. We have not forgotten the fears of war.' In contrast, Ms. Maryam believes that Iran should have attacked Israel to demonstrate its 'power,' while also believing that Israel does not dare to attack Iran. Nevertheless, she has gone with her five-year-old child to a village in Mazandaran to ensure their safety in case something happens. The Islamic Republic and the 'strategic deadlock' in the war with Israel. October 7th, the anniversary of a show of power. Some people have no doubt that an Israeli attack is certain. Any doubts that exist are about the time and place. Mr. Hossein says, 'Certainly on October 7th there will be an attack, which is the anniversary of last year's attack on Gaza.' He has some doubts about the location and thinks Israel will likely target Iranian military bases. Mr. Siamak believes that the October 7th attack is certain and identifies Isfahan as the target, which he says will ultimately lead to a major catastrophe. Mr. Mostafa, a resident of Isfahan, says, 'Since Iran's attack on Israel, more jokes have been made than analyses. Now that the discussion is about an attack on Isfahan, people are laughing about it again.' He says they have no choice but to laugh. Certainly, some are scared, but many think this attack is a specific type that will only target regime officials and will not affect the Iranian people. He is among those who, despite having traveled by air many times, has currently stopped traveling by plane. Mr. Mostafa believes that this situation will also become normal for him and that something will happen when no one expects it; no one is looking at the sky, and perhaps everyone will be asleep.