Has Turkey Abandoned Its EU Membership Aspirations?

Following the arrest of the editorial board members of the Cumhuriyet newspaper and the subsequent detention of leaders of the Peoples' Democratic Party by the Turkish government, serious tensions have emerged between the European Union and Turkey. On Wednesday, November 9, 2016, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan explicitly told the EU during a MUSIAD (Association of Muslim Businessmen in Turkey) meeting: "Make your final decision." It appears that the relationship between the EU and Turkey, which had previously been improving with the resolution of open chapters that had been reduced from 32 to 7 two years ago, is now at a deadlock. It is noteworthy that the massive influx of Syrian migrants and refugees through the Sea of Marmara and the Mediterranean to Greece and then to various European countries at the end of 2015 prompted the EU to seek solutions in cooperation with Turkey to limit the overwhelming flow of migrants. To this end, in addition to approving a €6 billion grant to Turkey to support refugees, EU member states discussed lifting travel restrictions for Turkish citizens to European countries as an incentive, which was to be implemented in line with Turkey's requests. These decisions were made during a recent meeting between Angela Merkel and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Istanbul in 2016, and even afterward, Bohuslav Sobotka, the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, explicitly stated to then-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu at an EU summit that if the return of migrants to Turkey began in March 2016, the grounds for opening other chapters related to Turkey's EU membership would be quickly discussed. Although various countries, including France, Italy, and especially Cyprus, had vetoed Turkey's membership for various reasons until that day, Nikos Anastasiades, the President of Cyprus, considered the recent EU discussions with Turkey convincing and satisfactory. However, it did not take long for the existing inconsistencies in the political actions of the Turkish government and their contradictions with EU norms regarding issues such as restrictions on civil liberties, pressure on political activists, media restrictions, discrimination against religious minorities, blocking the activities of over 170 television and radio networks, revoking the licenses of more than 180 newspapers and publications, purging over 80,000 military, civil, and academic personnel, and excessive arrests in the aftermath of the July coup, culminating in the arrest of Cumhuriyet newspaper writers and journalists, to escalate tensions between the EU and Turkey. In recent weeks, European officials have continuously expressed concern about the current situation in Turkey, with Martin Schulz, the President of the European Parliament, accusing Turkey of crossing the red line. In this context, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım responded to these remarks by stating that the comments of European officials hold little meaning for Turkey and that they will draw another line over their red line. The issue of suspending or delaying Turkey's EU membership was raised last week by European political officials. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, November 8, that the foreign ministers of the 28 EU member states are set to discuss the suspension of Turkey's EU membership negotiations in their first meeting. In this context, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated at the MUSIAD meeting: "The EU shamelessly says it wants to review Turkey's file and stop our membership.... They have acted too late. I say do it quickly this time. But at least make your final decision this time." Although the Turkish President uses his usual rhetoric to maintain his 'charisma' in Turkish society and stirs public sentiment, an analysis of his statements suggests that he does not have much desire to remain separated from the EU. The phrase "at least make your final decision this time" indicates that the current state of uncertainty is distressing for Turkish politicians, as there is both hope for joining and uncertainty and despair regarding membership. In this context, the EU's six-point declaration, one of which pertains to reforming the approach to combating terrorism, prompted the Turkish government to express its final view. The Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that the EU has lost its credibility among the Turkish people due to its dual approach to the issue of terrorism. In line with this statement, Kati Piri, the EU reporter on Turkey, announced in a press conference in Brussels on Thursday, November 9, that "Ankara is closing the doors to EU membership with its statements and actions, and as long as conditions do not return to the rule of law and respect for human rights, Turkey's EU membership negotiations must be halted." It is noteworthy that Federica Mogherini, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, is set to meet with Turkish government officials again. Meanwhile, the 2016 EU report on Turkey's progress indicates that the Turkish government has not met necessary standards in issues such as the independence of the judiciary, disregard for human rights, the absolute authority of judges in issuing rulings, the lack of review of certain cases in appellate courts, lack of progress in government corruption, particularly in the case related to the Deniz Feneri charity that has been open since 2013, lack of transparency in politics, use of torture and coercion in interrogations, insufficient evidence in accusations against individuals involved in the coup, and the ongoing arrests. As a result, Turkey is on a path where its EU membership could propel the country into various dimensions on the global stage, especially among Muslim countries. However, the psychological-political conditions of Erdoğan's government over the years and the adoption of methods contrary to EU norms have led to the blocking of pathways to Turkey's long-held aspirations. It is believed that the Turkish government does not have an inner desire to archive the EU membership negotiation file, but on the other hand, the "authoritarian spirit" of the Turkish government and the current conditions have made it unlikely that the dream of EU membership will be realized anytime soon.