Have Clinton and Trump Finished the Job?

On paper, no! Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are not yet the definitive nominees of the Republican and Democratic parties. However, both have made significant strides, and defeating them in the ongoing party primaries will be very difficult from this point forward. Yet, the primaries in 35 states have not yet taken place. So how is it that the final outcome seems so predictable after just 15 states have voted? On Super Tuesday, supporters of the two main parties across all 50 states, as well as territories considered part of the U.S., will express their preferences for candidates. Their opinions will significantly impact the final outcome. After Super Tuesday, the number of states that have expressed their opinions for both parties reached 15, and so far, the results are as follows: In the Republican Party, Donald Trump has won in 10 states, Ted Cruz in four states, and Marco Rubio in one state. In total, Trump has secured 285 delegates, Cruz 161, and Rubio 87. Ultimately, the Republican nominee will be the one who secures 1,237 delegates. In the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton has won in 10 states and Bernie Sanders in five states. In this party, Clinton has gained 544 delegates and Sanders 349. The nominee will be the one who can gather a total of 2,383 delegates. In other words, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump still have a long way to go to reach the minimum required score for final victory; both have obtained about one-fourth of the necessary delegates. However, the enthusiasm of their supporters and the reactions of some media and observers suggest that the race is virtually over. The main reason is that many expect the outcome of their success in the remaining 35 states to resemble that of these first 15 states. Simply put, these two have been more successful than their rivals in the first 15 states for various reasons and have attracted a larger share of voters. The prediction is that they will replicate these successes in the future for the same reasons (whatever they may be). Moreover, this trend aligns with the historical pattern of U.S. primaries, where stopping a candidate who can get ahead of the competition by the end of Super Tuesday has always been nearly impossible. It seems that in this election, winning in each state is like shifting gears in a campaign and accelerating towards victory. The more one wins in more states, the faster they move and the harder they are to stop. In the U.S. election calendar, the election year begins in March with Super Tuesday, and rapidly clarifies the intra-party competition in more states throughout the month. In fact, the highest number of intra-party elections occurs in this month, and by the end of it, the fate of many campaigns becomes clear. From this point on, continuing advertising campaigns is more tied to financial issues; as long as financial backers have not abandoned a candidate or the candidate has raised enough money so far, they usually continue their advertising fight. If there is money available, continuing the campaign at this stage has two clear benefits for someone like Marco Rubio in the Republican Party: first, it allows him to connect directly with larger groups of supporters and increases his reputation and influence in more states. Secondly, it provides him with more experience for campaigning at this level in the future. Both of these factors can be very beneficial for a successful campaign in the future—perhaps four years or more down the line. (A candidate like Jeb Bush, who did not feel the need for more fame and experience, withdrew despite having enough money to continue the fight). In the Democratic Party, however, Bernie Sanders' motivations for continuing the competition may be entirely different. He will likely focus on increasing the social capital of his campaign and insisting on his slogans to push the Democratic Party more towards these demands rather than thinking about the future. He will be nearly 80 years old in four years, and it is unlikely he will consider another campaign for the presidency. Moreover, Sanders has a more serious chance of ultimately defeating Hillary Clinton in the Democratic Party compared to Trump's rivals in the Republican Party, and if the defeat on Super Tuesday does not demoralize his supporters, there is still a possibility that with a few consecutive wins, his position could change. Sanders' current situation is like that of a strong football team that, after half a season, has not only failed to reach the top of the table but is stuck in the middle! To get back to the top, he needs both consecutive wins and extraordinary fighting spirit, which is not impossible. However, such occurrences are not typical. If this does not happen in the Democratic camp and Trump continues on the same path, the next president of the United States will likely be either Hillary Clinton or someone who few predicted would get this far at the beginning of the election campaign; namely, Donald J. Trump.