Hidden and Controversial Questions in the Azerbaijan Referendum

On Monday, October 5 (September 26), a referendum will be held in Azerbaijan that is expected to strengthen the dominance of Ilham Aliyev and his family over power. But what questions will voters face in this referendum? This referendum includes 29 proposed amendments to the Constitution of Azerbaijan. The current constitution was approved by public vote in 1995 and has been amended twice in 2002 and 2009. Voters do not need to vote positively or negatively on all proposed changes; they can reject or approve each section of the reforms. Therefore, the referendum next week includes a misleading set of options. The most significant proposed change is the extension of the presidential term from five to seven years. Ilham Aliyev, the current president of Azerbaijan, who is 54 years old, has been in power since succeeding his father in 2003. His current term ends in 2018, but the 2009 amendments to the country's constitution removed the term limit for the presidency. Another change to be voted on in the referendum is the establishment of a second vice-presidency, both of which would be appointed and dismissed by the president. The first vice president acts as the successor to the head of state, and if the president is unable to perform his duties, his powers will be transferred to the first vice president. If the first vice president is also unable to perform his duties, presidential powers will be transferred to the prime minister, who must be approved by parliament. Another proposed change gives the president the authority to dissolve parliament and call for early elections if parliament votes no confidence in the government twice in one year or does not accept the president's proposals for the Constitutional Court, the Supreme Court, or the presidency of the Central Bank. Another change removes the 35-year minimum age requirement for presidential candidates and lowers the age for parliamentary candidates from 25 to 18 years. Another proposed change conditions the right to freedom of assembly on 'public order and moral standards.' This comes as the Azerbaijani government has increased repression and pressure on opponents and critics and has been criticized for escalating human rights violations. Human rights organizations say that in recent years, dozens of political critics and opponents of the government, journalists, and human rights activists have been arrested and imprisoned for political reasons. Another proposed change in this referendum grants more powers to government officials and institutions to confiscate people's properties and lands for reasons described as 'social justice and optimal use of properties.' If such an amendment to the constitution is approved, government officials and institutions will have more rights than they do today in managing and owning properties and lands. Another focus of these changes allows the government to revoke the citizenship of individuals according to 'national laws.' Azerbaijani government officials defend the proposed constitutional changes under the pretext of strengthening stability and democracy in the country. However, critics and opponents of the government argue that the approval of such changes will increase the dominance of the government and the Aliyev family over power. The head of the Central Election Commission has stated that the aim of these changes is 'to protect stability in the country.' The spokesperson for the Azerbaijani parliament has also said that this referendum is 'very important for consolidating the authority of the central government and ensuring human rights and freedoms.' Officials from the ruling party (Yeni Azerbaijan) argue that extending Mr. Aliyev's presidential term is a correct action because it would eliminate the need for presidential elections to be held in three consecutive years: 2018, 2019, and 2020. However, critics say the aim of these changes, especially after the failed coup in Turkey, is to consolidate and prolong Ilham Aliyev and his family's grip on power. Ali Kerimli, the leader of the Popular Front Party, described these constitutional changes as 'an attempt to legitimize the current situation, justify the unlimited power of the ruling family, and consolidate tyranny.' Iqbal Aghazadeh, leader of the independent Hope Party and a former parliament member, also stated: 'This referendum only strengthens the presidency and will weaken all other branches of government.' Aref Hajiyev, leader of the opposition Musavat Party, said: 'It seems that the government does not consider the current constitution sufficiently authoritarian or adequate for establishing a monarchy.' It is speculated that the position of the first vice president in the proposed constitutional changes is created for Mehriban, Ilham Aliyev's wife, or their 19-year-old son, Heydar. In recent years, referendums held in Azerbaijan have been marred by fraud, with all results favoring the Aliyev family. In 2002, then-President Heydar Aliyev approved a constitutional referendum transferring power from the president to the prime minister. Shortly thereafter, the aging Heydar Aliyev, who had been in power for a decade, appointed his son Ilham as prime minister, resulting in the transfer of power to his son according to the constitution. In 2009, Ilham Aliyev proposed constitutional changes to remove the two-term limit for the presidency, effectively paving the way for him to hold the position again in 2013. Human rights organizations accuse the Azerbaijani government of initiating a new wave of repression against critics and opponents following the failed coup in Turkey in July this year. As a result of these actions, several political activists and critics have been arrested on the pretext of connections with the Fethullah Gülen network, which the Turkish government accuses of orchestrating the coup. In recent days, small gatherings have been held in Baku, where participants have called for the cancellation of the referendum and the implementation of political reforms. Police have arrested several demonstrators.