Hossein Raghfar: We Are Caught in a Complex Network of Corruption

The economic pages of Iranian newspapers, publications, and websites this week have addressed various topics for economic analysis by experts. A summary of several analyses and notes published this week is as follows: Impossible Matters, Empowerment. Hossein Raghfar, an economist and professor at Alzahra University, emphasized at the conference "Women on the Path of Social Development," which reviewed the approach of the Sixth Development Plan, that "financial resources exist to secure all economic-social rights of the nation." According to this institutional economist, "Iran is a very wealthy country and with proper economic management, it can secure all economic-social rights stipulated in the Constitution for its citizens, but unfortunately, this has not been realized so far, and there is no will for it." In part of Raghfar's remarks published on the website "Tamin 24," he referenced a study conducted over a thirty-year period from 1984 to 2013 regarding the vulnerability of women and men to poverty. He stated that the results of this thirty-year study show that "the poverty of women has always had an increasing trend." In another part of his speech, Raghfar recalled and read principles from the Constitution that stipulate the economic and social rights of the people, saying: "The Constitution is a mutual contract and commitment between the people and the government, and one cannot expect one side of this relationship to violate its commitments and not act upon them while expecting the other side to comply with these commitments." Raghfar stressed that "the government must be obligated to provide free educational programs at the beginning of next year." According to the architect of the poverty map in Iran, "the Iranian economy should not rely on oil revenues," while Raghfar believes that "in the current government's economic programs, all programs focus on the 1+5 negotiations and the release of certain funds." This faculty member at Alzahra University pointed out that half of Iran's economy does not pay taxes and emphasized the figure of 80 trillion tomans in tax evasion, stating that "this is essentially the right of the people that is being lost, and the government is unable to restore these rights, and we are caught in a complex network of corruption where decision-makers do not take serious action." Concerned about inflation, Hadi Haqshenas, an economic expert and former parliament member, expressed concern about the future rise in inflation in a note written for the newspaper "Shargh." According to this economic expert, "the decrease in foreign income leads to a decrease in imports, which causes supply issues in the commodity market." Haqshenas also noted that the decrease in foreign revenues "will lead to the government's inability to maintain the value of the rial against other currencies and stabilize the dollar's price." This economic expert believes that with the increase in the dollar price, the rial price of imported goods and raw materials will also rise. Hadi Haqshenas predicted that "the lack of foreign income will lead to the non-fulfillment of projected revenues in the budget," and in response to this non-fulfillment, "the government will be forced to allocate the budget of construction projects to current expenses," which, according to this expert, "will itself lead to an increase in the inflation rate." Based on this economic expert's estimates, "if the fall in oil prices continues in the coming months, an increase in the inflation rate will not be unexpected." Haqshenas concluded his note by writing, "If the government does not cut its expenses and oil prices continue to decline, the country will face an increase in the inflation rate next year." Impossible Planning. Saeed Leilaz, an analyst of Iranian economic issues, emphasized in a note published by the newspaper "Te'adol Eqtesadi" that in the current conditions of the Iranian economy, where rapid and extensive changes have affected all macroeconomic indicators, long-term planning is fundamentally impossible. According to Leilaz, "the Iranian economy is currently in a situation where stability and security do not exist for various reasons." He wrote, "The impactful fluctuations in the economic specifications of Iran are such that long-term planning is almost impossible." In another part of his note, referring to the issue of Iran's nuclear file and its fate, he wrote: "The conditions of Iran's nuclear file are such that until a comprehensive nuclear agreement is reached, no expectations for any easing in oil sales and attracting foreign investment can be imagined." Leilaz concluded by referring to the government's spokesperson's recent promise regarding the drafting of the Sixth Development Plan for the years 2015 to 2020, stating: "As an economic analyst, allow me to be concerned about the various aspects of such a program."