Hosseini Aghaei, Researcher: The Islamic Republic Has 'Completely' Lost Deterrence Power

Following Israel's retaliatory attack on the positions of the Islamic Republic and the possibility of a response from the Iranian government, a strategic affairs researcher told Voice of America that four scenarios are conceivable, all of which entail losses for the government, as restoring deterrence for the Islamic Republic poses the risk of war. Hosseini Aghaei, an expert in international relations and strategic affairs, stated on Sunday, November 6, that the Islamic Republic's approach towards Israel is fraught with a 'dangerous deterrence crisis' for Tehran. According to Aghaei, the Islamic Republic has 'completely lost' its deterrent power both inside Iran and in the region, finding itself in a 'confusing situation' where any action would lead to a larger Israeli response and better deterrent positioning for Israel. He noted that the Israeli army's actions against the Islamic Republic are 'within a chain of reactions' and 'aimed at striking the head of the octopus,' with the level of responses from the Islamic Republic increasing in a stepwise manner. This strategic researcher emphasized that Israel aims to inflict casualties among 'military personnel and commanders' by 'diversifying its target selection,' referencing previous Israeli actions, including obtaining documents related to the Islamic Republic's nuclear activities and assassinating IRGC officials and Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. He mentioned that Israel has conducted military and intelligence operations, albeit limited, in Iran and the region in past years, but is now 'targeting military infrastructures' within Iran. Aghaei outlined four scenarios for the Islamic Republic's response to Israel's retaliatory attack. The first scenario involves no reaction at all, which would mean 'continuing to lose,' and showing weakness could lead Israel to expand its attacks on the Islamic Republic's positions within Iranian territory. He indicated that even if the Islamic Republic opts for a 'limited and symbolic response,' targeting Israel or its interests and allies in the region, it would still be 'ineffective' as it would not restore deterrence for Tehran. The third scenario involves a 'low-risk response' akin to two previous operations known as 'Promise of the Truth,' which would be 'not aimed at inflicting casualties' and accompanied by movements of its proxy groups in the region 'within the framework of the ring of fire doctrine, but below the threshold of total war,' which would also provoke a broad response from Israel. Aghaei identified the fourth hypothesis as a 'high-risk response' involving 'extensive missile and drone attacks' towards Israel by the Islamic Republic and its proxy forces in the region, aimed at destroying critical infrastructures in that country, which could lead Israel, along with its allies in the region, including the U.S., to engage in war with the Islamic Republic. He stated that any action against Israel that increases the likelihood of human casualties raises the possibility of a 'nuclear threat' from the Islamic Republic, adding that if Tehran's officials consider threatening Israel with nuclear bomb development, 'Israel might selectively use nuclear bombs against the Islamic Republic,' and 'the likelihood of a nuclear attack would increase.' The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic reacted to Israel's attack on its positions today, Sunday, calling it 'malicious' and stated that this attack 'should neither be exaggerated nor downplayed.' Additionally, journalist Najat Bahrami told Voice of America that the Supreme Leader has seen the consequences of confronting Israel and is now shirking decision-making responsibilities.