Houthi Attack on Emirati Ship, Iran's Footprint and Possible Consequences

The missile attack by the Houthis of Yemen on an Emirati ship in the Red Sea has raised new concerns regarding the civil war in Yemen. The Houthis' use of an anti-ship missile not only reveals the new capabilities of this group's fighters but also raises questions about the security of shipping in the southern Red Sea and the strategic Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, as well as the effectiveness of the UN Security Council's arms embargo against the Houthis. On Saturday, October 1, a civilian Emirati ship was targeted in the waters off the port of Mocha in the coastal province of Taiz, Yemen, near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. The vessel, named 'HSV Swift,' a catamaran type, was severely damaged. This ship, with a maximum displacement of 1,695 tons and a length of nearly 98 meters and a speed of 45 knots (83 kilometers per hour), was previously part of the U.S. Navy's transportation command but was leased to the United Arab Emirates last year. The UAE used this fast vessel for logistical support to the coalition of Arab countries involved in Yemen and for evacuating the wounded. The attack on the Swift ship, which the Ansar Allah, the military branch of the Houthi movement, showcased through the Al-Masirah TV network, initially shows the ship's movement in daylight followed by a severe explosion at night filmed from a short distance. This indicates that the ship was being monitored by a launch or boat that likely transmitted information about its movements to the shore. Hours after the attack, Fox News quoted some unnamed American officials stating that the Emirati ship was targeted by several Iranian-made shoulder-fired rockets. However, an analysis published by Al-Masirah TV experts, considering the distance of the Swift ship from the Yemeni coast at the time of the attack, does not confirm the American officials' claims. Based on investigations conducted by the 'Janes' institute, seconds after the midnight attack occurred, the Swift's 'Automatic Identification System' failed, while the ship was located 15.5 miles (28.7 kilometers) from the port of Mocha and 38 miles (70.4 kilometers) north of Bab-el-Mandeb. Therefore, the attack on the mentioned ship with shoulder-fired missiles is impossible, and the possibility of an attack with rockets launched from the shore is minimal, as the rockets, lacking guidance systems, do not have sufficient accuracy for targeting. The claim by the Houthis that they targeted the Emirati vessel with an anti-ship missile is likely true, and Ansar Allah probably used the Chinese 'C-802' missile or its Iranian variant known as Noor. The maximum range of the optimized type of Noor missile is 91 nautical miles or 170 kilometers. The broadcast by Al-Masirah TV also reveals the use of the missile, and the separation of the booster motor after firing confirms this. The use of Iranian-made anti-ship missiles by proxy groups is not new. Ten years ago, in July 2006 during the 33-day war, an Israeli patrol boat named 'Hanith' was destroyed by a missile. In that attack, Hezbollah fired an anti-ship Noor missile from the shore at the mentioned vessel. The attack on the Swift vessel is the fourth missile attack by the Houthis against coalition vessels. In October of last year, the Houthis claimed to have targeted an Emirati patrol boat and two Saudi supply ships. Additionally, on December 19 of last year, several Emirati vessels in the port of Assab, opposite the port of Mocha across the Red Sea in Eritrea, were attacked by several rockets fired from a boat. Furthermore, a group of Houthi fighters or their supporters unexpectedly attacked the Emirati airport in Assab on the same day. The UAE is permitted to use the port of Assab in Eritrea and the nearby airport based on a 30-year contract and intends to establish a base in this country. This port is of special strategic importance due to its geographical location and proximity to Bab-el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden. Apart from anti-ship missiles, Iranian media reported that Ansar Allah was equipped with the Zalzal-3 rocket (with a warhead weight of nearly half a ton and a range of 65 kilometers) in July of this year. These media attributed the production of this rocket to the 'military industry section of the Yemeni army and popular committees' and emphasized that this rocket has been 'indigenized' in Yemen. Recently, Ansar Allah announced the testing of a new rocket named Thamud, which was reflected in Iranian and Arab media. Thamud (with a length of 4 meters, a warhead weight of 300 kilograms, and a range of 38 kilometers) bears similarities to Zalzal-3 in appearance and is likely modeled after it. The Islamic Republic's military assistance to the Houthis and its efforts to enhance the quality and effectiveness of Ansar Allah's missiles and rockets are not new, but it seems that the Houthis are also striving to develop their capabilities for producing various weapons and rockets. Additionally, the abundance of old weapons, especially those from the former Soviet Union and North Korea, combined with the lawlessness prevailing in Yemen, has paved the way for Ansar Allah to access such weaponry or to manufacture simple and uncomplicated rockets. Overall, the Houthis' acquisition of anti-ship missiles is a significant step for this group, whose previous efforts to attack coalition vessels were limited to anti-tank weapons or artillery fire. Although coastal artillery lacks sufficient accuracy for targeting at sea, Houthi fighters have claimed in the past that they were able to target some coalition boats using this weapon. Anti-tank weapons, which have a short range, are more effective for attacking vessels that are close to shore, which happens less frequently. Meanwhile, Yemen possesses several Russian anti-ship missiles known as 'Styx,' which Houthi fighters may gain access to, although these missiles are old and likely past their legal lifespan. Furthermore, these missiles are designed for launch from ships or frigates, not for launching from the shore to the sea. In response to this event, Bahram Qasemi, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, denied the Houthis' use of Iranian-made missiles in the attack on the Swift ship and criticized the U.S. policy of selling weapons to Saudi Arabia, stating: 'It is better for the Americans, who have a very heavy record of sending various weapons and equipment to aggressors in the attack on Yemen, not to accuse others with projection.' In this context, Ali Fadavi, commander of the IRGC Navy, on October 7 during a speech commemorating the anniversary of 'Martyrs of the Persian Gulf and direct confrontation with America in Bushehr,' said: 'Americans, Europeans, and regional countries have formed a global coalition in Yemen for more than a year and a half, and all their attacks have been directed against the oppressed revolutionary people of Yemen, but they are even unable to prevent their ships from being hit by the Islamic Revolution fighters in Yemen.... The seventh ship of these countries was destroyed last Saturday in Yemen, showing that they cannot defend themselves.' Last month, Gholamali Khoshroo, Iran's representative to the United Nations, had rejected the claim of Iranian military support for Ansar Allah addressed to the Security Council. In contrast, John Kerry, the U.S. Secretary of State, stated that his country is deeply concerned about the deployment of Iranian-made missiles by Ansar Allah at the borders of Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni Crisis Stalemate Yemen, considered one of the poorest countries in the Arab world, has been embroiled in a civil war since the Houthis seized Sana'a. Saudi Arabia, which entered the Yemeni civil war on April 6, 2015, initially with 'Operation Decisive Storm' and then 'Operation Restore Hope' with a coalition of several Arab and Islamic countries and support from the U.S., France, Britain, Canada, and Turkey in support of the government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, has not made progress contrary to initial optimism. Overall, coalition forces have yet to make any progress in pushing back the Houthis and reclaiming territories under their control. The Houthis control most of western Yemen and continue to bombard some border cities of Saudi Arabia from their positions in provinces bordering Saudi Arabia. Peace negotiations in Kuwait aimed at ending 18 months of war under the supervision of the United Nations reached a stalemate last month. Following the failure of the negotiations, on October 2, the Houthis formed a Supreme Political Council of Yemen, appointing Abdulaziz Saleh bin Habtour, the former governor of Aden, as prime minister and tasked him with forming his cabinet. In the meantime, the human and non-human toll of the Yemeni civil war has brought the country to its knees. According to UN officials, the number of casualties in the Yemeni civil war over the past 18 months is nearly 10,000, significantly higher than previous estimates by the organization, which had put the number at 6,000. So far, 3 million of Yemen's 26 million population have been displaced, with 200,000 of them seeking refuge abroad. According to the UN, 14 million of the country's citizens need food assistance, and 7 million are food insecure (lacking access to sufficient and healthy food for a healthy and active life). The U.S. Consequences of the Missile Attack The Houthis' acquisition of anti-ship missiles and various rockets indicates that the maritime blockade of Yemen by the coalition countries led by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. and other Western countries supporting this coalition, aimed at preventing the shipment of weapons from Iran to Ansar Allah, has not produced tangible results. Following the missile attack by the Houthis on the Emirati ship, the Pentagon initially dispatched two destroyers along with the 'Ponce' ship, which serves as a floating base for special operations, to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. The purpose of sending these ships is to ensure the freedom of navigation for vessels in Bab-el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden and, in some ways, to demonstrate power to the Houthis and their supporters in the Islamic Republic. Bab-el-Mandeb is of extraordinary strategic and economic importance. More than 4.7 million barrels of oil pass through this busy strait daily. John Richardson, the commander of the U.S. Navy, following the recent missile attack on the Emirati ship, stated: 'The attack on the Swift vessel and ten other attacks claimed by the Houthis threaten this vital strait, and their C-802 missiles can cover the entire width of the Red Sea.' The U.S. intends to neutralize Iran's efforts to push the UAE and other coalition countries away from the Yemeni coast. In contrast, the Islamic Republic aims to extend the Yemeni civil war to Eritrea and disrupt shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Disrupting the coalition's shipping along the Yemeni coast could halt their maritime support for the government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. This could keep the Islamic Republic's hands free to assist the Houthis and shift the civil war in favor of the Houthis. If maritime attacks by the Houthis increase, the naval forces of the U.S. and other Western countries will have no choice but to escort passing ships and oil tankers through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and the surrounding waters – similar to NATO's 'Active Endeavor' operation, which has been in effect since October 2001 following the September 11 attacks in the U.S. in the Strait of Gibraltar and the Mediterranean Sea to protect vessels and continues to this day.