How and When Will Sanctions Be Lifted?

According to the joint text released at the end of the recent Lausanne talks, Iran's commitments, at least in the dimensions of the "Joint Action Plan" (the interim Geneva agreement), are considered immediately executable and will be inspected, while the lifting of sanctions is contingent upon the resolution of ambiguities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) regarding activities suspected of having military dimensions by the Islamic Republic. Thus, Iran's commitments based on the statement released are critical and enforceable, and the lifting of sanctions will be conditional, gradual, and time-bound. Previously, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic emphasized that the simultaneous lifting of all sanctions is part of the negotiations, not a result of them. The art of diplomacy is to secure the maximum demands of the stronger party while leaving a small portion as a gray area to address in subsequent negotiations. The Supreme Leader had previously stated that a potential agreement should be comprehensive and one-stage. The text released in Lausanne indicates that the agreements have certainly and practically become two-stage, and despite the announcement of general agreements in Lausanne in certain areas, the determination of many agreement provisions has been postponed until the end of June. The interpretation of the document indicates that based on the text released by the European Union, economic and financial sanctions against Iran, which have been imposed solely for nuclear reasons, will be lifted by the United States when the IAEA simultaneously confirms that all of Iran's key commitments regarding nuclear activities have been implemented. All monthly statements from the Agency since January 2014 have indicated that Iran has complied with its commitments under the "Joint Action Plan" by refraining from producing uranium gas with a concentration of 20 percent and gradually reducing its stockpile of 20 percent and 5 percent enriched uranium, while not cooperating regarding activities suspected of having military dimensions. Iran will only have three months to take necessary actions to resolve ambiguities, and until then, none of the sanctions will be lifted. Another clause in the agreement states: "A new Security Council resolution will endorse the implementation of the 'Comprehensive Joint Action Plan,' after which all previous decisions related to Iran's nuclear activities will be terminated, and instead, new deterrent restrictions will be substituted, the duration of which will be mutually agreed upon. This clause continues: From now on, we will work on drafting and organizing the 'Comprehensive Joint Action Plan,' including technical points (resolving ambiguities of the Agency) in the coming weeks and months at the expert level. We are committed to continuing these efforts until June 30." Thus, until the drafting of the 'Comprehensive Joint Action Plan,' only the 'Joint Action Plan' will be implemented, and all current sanctions will remain in effect until then. Iran has implemented the commitments outlined in the Non-Proliferation Treaty since 1974 and has given them legal form after parliamentary approval in 1976. Since 2003, with the decision of the then government of the Islamic Republic, Iran has timely implemented the amended commitments regarding safeguards (the Additional Protocol). In 2006, upon the recommendation of the parliament and the decision of the subsequent government, the Islamic Republic suspended the implementation of the Additional Protocol. Until 2010, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former Secretary-General of the Agency, dealt with these political actions. Since then, the current Secretary-General, Yukiya Amano, has only approached the issue of Iran's nuclear safeguards from a technical perspective and has been critical of the Islamic Republic in these matters. According to Code 3.1 of the Additional Protocol, which the Islamic Republic has not yet complied with, Iran would be obliged to inform the Agency 180 days before placing any nuclear materials in any nuclear facilities and equipment. If this clause were implemented, the Islamic Republic would not have been able to conceal the Natanz or Fordow enrichment facilities. The legal approval and implementation of the Additional Protocol is another prerequisite that the Islamic Republic has agreed to before the gradual lifting of sanctions. These restrictions will certainly continue over a 10-year period and gradually over the next five years. Thus, Iran has ultimately accepted to return to the very costly and unproductive path of the past 12 years in exchange for conditional and gradual lifting of sanctions.