How Many Russian Forces Are in Syria?

These days, as the strengthening and expansion of Russia's military presence in Syria is in the spotlight, a group of Russian activists who have managed to gather the most credible information about Russia's military intervention in Eastern Ukraine from public sources are examining the evidence surrounding Russia's military movements in Syria. Ruslan Leviev, a social activist and founder of this group, says in an interview with Radio Farda that the recent Kremlin activities in Syria are both similar to and different from Russia's adventure in Ukraine. Leviev states, "What we see in Syria is really not dissimilar to the events in Eastern Ukraine. Apparently, in both places, the plan was for Russia's intervention to be limited to financial-military support, with local forces fighting for our interests. However, when this plan was on the verge of failure, Russian soldiers directly intervened. The only major difference is that unlike in Ukraine, Russian soldiers in Syria cannot be portrayed as local forces and claimed to have gone to the battlefield on leave or simply lost their way. A fundamental difference also relates to our work, which is tracking the movements of Russian forces in Syria, and that is that our soldiers in Syria largely do not have internet access, and those who have published their photos in Syria on social media—without turning off their mobile phones' geolocation—are mostly public relations officials, while most of the internet reports we have from Syria belong to soldiers who publish them after completing their missions and returning to Russia. Of course, this complicates evidence collection, and we have to change the research method we experienced in Ukraine." If I understand you correctly, the number of Russian soldiers in Syria is much greater than what you have been able to estimate from their reports on social media? "Much more. We have recently obtained photos showing how Russian marines board military ships that were later observed passing through the Bosporus Strait. Other photos, which we cannot yet confirm, indicate that ships from third countries are also moving from Crimean ports to Syria, and they also play a role in transferring Russian soldiers. All this documentation indicates that the shipment of Russian equipment to Syria is not comparable even to a month ago, and the number of soldiers is much greater than what we can prove based on social media." Russian officials, who initially denied the presence of Russian soldiers in Syria, now say that these soldiers are advisors and personnel from the Tartus military base that has always been present in Syria. Does the evidence you have support this? "Many mistakenly consider Tartus to be a Russian naval military base, while Russia has only rented small refueling and support facilities there since 1971. In other words, this is a gas station where until 2013, four military personnel and several civilians worked. Additionally, in 2013, Russia decided to withdraw military and civilian staff from this base, and at that time, Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian president's representative in the Middle East, announced that although Moscow would not close this base, its military-strategic value was not significant enough to endanger the lives of Russian citizens. However, the situation changed last spring. Interestingly, during those days, Bashar al-Assad, in an interview with the Russian Defense Ministry's television network that did not attract the attention of other media, said that a Russian military base might be established near Latakia. Since that date, the shipment of Russian forces and military equipment to Syria—first by sea and now also by air—has intensified, so that now at least two transport planes land at Latakia airport every day, likely carrying humanitarian supplies of the same type that Russian trucks delivered to aid the militias in Eastern Ukraine. According to our estimates, there are now about a thousand Russian soldiers in Latakia and Tartus." Given the increase in Russian military activities in Syria, do you think the Kremlin is planning a full-scale military operation? "In my opinion, this is a political game and a lever of pressure from the Kremlin on the West. However, before this ambitious plan bears fruit, the very urgent task is the physical rescue of Assad, who has lost control over most of Syria. We have read in some reports that there is a theory at the security levels in Russia that the West wanted to start a large-scale military operation in Syria in the fall. True or false, such rumors may not have been without influence on the urgency of the Kremlin's decision-making. It seems that for now, Russia's military presence in Syria is sufficient to prevent the capture of Latakia and Tartus, and if necessary, the number of these forces will also increase. However, for now, military equipment is primarily being sent to the region, and infantry forces have not yet entered the battle. Some reports indicate that Russia's recent movements in Syria are coordinated with Iran and are part of a plan that was supposedly coordinated during the secret visit of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to Moscow last month. Do you have any information regarding this? "Because we have so far focused on Russia's war in Eastern Ukraine and the issue of Syria is new to us, we have only recently managed to establish connections with local activists and are now receiving images and eyewitness reports from Lebanon, Turkey, and several other countries."